Hi. I've been lurking on OB+LW for around two years. I took the step of making an account a few months ago. Eventually I'll post something meaningful.

My familiarity with the case is low:

1. p = 0.40

2. p = 0.40

3. p = 0.90

4. I think we will agree with the general idea that Guede is likely to be guilty while Knox and Sollecito are unlikely to be guilty.

From what I could gather, the physical evidence against Knox and Sollecito is pretty weak and the force of the prosecution's argument is supposed to come from the inconsistencies between Knox's and Sollecito's accounts of the night. While there were more inconsistencies than I would have expected (judging just on the general fallibility of human memory), I felt that Knox's alibi of being exposed to extended interrogation was enough to account for the inconsistencies.