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Thank you to Arepo and Eli Lifland for looking over this article for errors. I am sorry that this article is so long. Every time I thought I was done with it I ran into more issues with the model, and I wanted to be as thorough as I could....

Confidence notes: I am a physicist working on computational material science, so I have some familiarity with the field, but don't know much about R&D firms or economics. Some of the links in this article were gathered from a post at pivot-to-ai.com and the BS detector. The paper "Artificial Intelligence,...

None of this article was written with AI assistance. Introduction There have been many, many, many attempts to lay out scenarios of AI taking over or destroying humanity. What they tend to have in common is an assumption that our doom will be sealed as a result of AI becoming...

Disclaimer: I am a computational physicist’s and this investigation is outside of my immediate area of expertise. Feel free to peruse the experiments and take everything I say with appropriate levels of skepticism. Introduction: The centre for AI safety is a prominent AI safety research group doing technical AI research...

Introduction: The (highly interrelated) effective altruist and Rationalist communities are very small on a global scale. Therefore, in general, most intelligence, skill and expertise is outside of the community, not within it. I don’t think many people will disagree with this statement. But sometimes it’s worth reminding people of the...

Disclaimer: While I criticize several EA critics in this article, I am myself on the EA-skeptical side of things (especially on AI risk). Introduction I am a proud critic of effective altruism, and in particular a critic of AI existential risk, but I have to admit that a lot of...

Confidence level: This is all speculation about tech that doesn’t exist yet. Everything is highly uncertain. All “simulations” within are illustrative models and should not be taken as serious predictions. When talking about AI, existential risk theorists almost always focus their attention on the best of the best AGI. Even...