I worry such a plan will face significant legal hurdles. As suggested the building would probably not fall into the exceptions to the federal fair housing act (is that right) for choosing roommates (it's not a single family dwelling but a group of apartments in some sense).
But you EXACTLY want to...(read more)
Sorry, but you can't get around the fact that humans are not well equipped to compute probabilities. We can't even state what our priors are in any reasonable sense much less compute exact probabilities.
As a result using probabilities has come to be associated with having some kind of model. If...(read more)
Uhh, why not just accept that you aren't and can never be perfectly rational and use those facts in positive ways.
Bubbles are psychologically comforting and help generate communities. Rationalist bubbling (which ironically includes the idea that they don't bubble) probably does more to build the ...(read more)
So the equations should be (definition of vaccine efficacy from wikipedia)
.6 * p(sick2) = p(sick2) - p(sick1)
p(sick1) - .4 p(sick2) = 0
i.e. efficacy is the difference be the unvaccinated and vacinated rates of infection divided by the unvaccinated rate. You have to assume there is no sele...(read more)
Not with respect to their revealed preferences for working in high risk jobs I understand. There are a bunch of economic papers on this but it was a surprisingly low number.
Well it can't still be instrumental rationality anymore. I mean suppose the value being minimized is overall suffering and you are offered a (non-zero probability one time...and you know there are no other possible infinitary outcomes) threat that if you don't believe some false claim X god will cr...(read more)
Given that he would be dead otherwise (and the strong human survival drive) I don't see how the incentives are perverse.
I mean to make the incentives positive for pushing the button requires some really strong conditioning or torture threats.
No since experientially we already know that we don't perceive the world as if all everett branches are computed.
In other words what is up for discovery is not 'not all everett branches are fully realized'....that's something from our apparent standpoint as belonging to a single such branch we cou...(read more)
I tried to avoid assuming this in the above discussion. You are correct that I do assume that the physics of the simulating world has two properties.
1) Effective physical computation (for the purposes of simulation) is the result of repeated essentially finite decisions. In other words the simul...(read more)
"Good people are consequentialists, but virtue ethics is what works,"
To nit pick a little I don't think consequentialism even allows one to coherently speak about good people and it certainly doesn't show that consequentialists are such people (standard alien who tortures people when they find co...(read more)