I've heard stories (unverified) that hedge funds manipulated political betting markets ahead of Brexit. Whatever loses you made betting would be more than offset by even a tiny shift in govt bonds or whatever.
If something like this happened, and the inherent correction mechanisms of a market were insufficient, I would probably just focus on the forecasts of top users.
If memory serves, Nate Silver managed to dominate some news cycles with his predictive model that mostly just aggregated opinion polls
I suspect I could do something similar. Look forward to "This super sophisticated model that definitely isn't just a weighted average of prediction markets predicated 49 out of 50 states!" coming soon to a mainstream newspaper near you
Appreciate you trying it out
Agree, the key next steps is marketing/distribution and user research. Also ruffling up some funding!
Reading a book called 'The Mom Test' on user feedback now :)
Eventually I would like to commission more high quality content from e.g. superforecasters.
I'm also working to improve the AI-summaries... eg wouldn't it be cool if I could get AI to find historical data to contextualise each news story?
True! I'm just trying to keep it simple
Open to feedback for a better 'catch all' term
(I feel like 'forecasts' doesn't capture the fact that this aren't my forecasts and 'wisdom of the crowds' isn't concrete enough)
Thanks! I'll send out a newsletter poll as well (and open to any other ideas of places to poll users other than Twitter)
I mean I basically have to make a decision market, considering my project!
Thank you!
I've fixed the last headline now. I agree that it was being driven by the resolution date and therefore misleading.
I'm curious what you think of e.g. the Putin headline. Of the 8 Putin markets, some resolve by July, some by October, and most by 2024 -- but all of them show ~90% or better odds (well, Hypermind is at 88%). So even if technically correct, would including the resolution dates really add value?
Especially on an data-ink ratio basis?
Most prediction markets used on the site resolve by 2024 (unless specified otherwise on the chart). It would feel redundant to include "by 2024" in every single headline?
My subjective impression is that odds start collapsing as the resolution date gets near, more so than some linear decline as the market window slowly closes. Some markets do trend down (peace odds), but others sideways (Putin, Crimea), and others trend up (Russian territory gain). So my current sense is that as long as headlines don't overweight markets closing within say ~2 months, it's probably okay?
Anyway am still very open to feedback on this. Just trying to navigate the trade-off of keeping things simple on an already cluttered site...
Thanks again, it was a stimulating post and I think this is going to be an important issue for me to get right. Will keep thinking about it.
Oh, I've also added a Patreon button now. Warning: no benefits yet! Purely to support the mission
Re injury prevention, you may be interested in Stuart McGill, professor of 'spinal biomechanics' at Waterloo.
For example, you shouldn't exercise first thing in the morning. Something about your discs being more hydrated --> swollen --> vulnerable after laying overnight.
Very open questions, but curious if you have any thoughts on Olympic lifting vs powerlifting. Or on kettlebells and hip-hinge exercises.