ViktorThink

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Interesting read.

While I also have experienced that GPT-4 can't solve the more challanging problems I throw at it, I also recognize that most humans probably wouldn't be able to solve many of those problems either within a reasonable amount of time.

One possibility is that the ability to solve novel problems might follow an S curve. Where it took a long time for AI to become better at novel task than 10% of people, but might go quickly from there to outperform 90%, but then very slowly increase from there.

However, I fail to see why that must neccessarily be true (or false), so if anyone has arguments for/against they are more than welcom.

Lastly I would like to ask the author if they can give an example of a problem such that if solved by AI, they would be worried about "imminent" doom? "new and complex" programming problems is mentioned, so if any such example could be provided it might contribute to discussion.

I found this article useful:

Lessons learned from talking to >100 academics about AI safety states that "Most people really dislike alarmist attitudes" and "Often people are much more concerned with intentional bad effects of AI" so

Oh, I didnt actually notice that the banana overlaps with the book at the start, I tried changing that but still gpt-4 makes them collide:

(5,5) Initial position of the claw. (4,5) Moving left to get closer to the banana. (4,4) Moving down to align with the banana's Y coordinate. (4,3) Moving down to ensure a good grip on the banana. Close grip # Gripping the banana with at least 3 cm of overlapping area on the Y axis. (5,3) Moving right to avoid any collision with the banana's edge. (6,3) Moving right to clear the edge of the banana. (7,3) Moving right to position the banana above the book. (8,3) Moving right to align the banana with the left edge of the book. (9,3) Moving right to center the banana over the book. (10,3) Moving right to ensure the banana is on the book. Open grip # Releasing the banana onto the book.

At this point, the robotic arm has successfully placed the banana on top of the book.

Yes, all other attempts with ChatGPT were similar.

GPT-4 got it almost correct on the first attempt

(5,5) Initial position. (4,5) Moving left to get closer to the banana. (4,4) Moving down to align with the banana's top edge. (4,3) Moving down to be within the required overlapping area of the banana. Close grip. Gripping the banana.

(4,4) Lifting the banana upwards. (5,4) Moving right to clear the initial banana position. (6,4) Continuing to move right towards the book. (7,4) Moving further right to avoid collision with the book's edges. (8,4) Positioning the banana above the book. (9,4) Moving right to ensure proper alignment with the book. (10,4) Positioning the banana above the center of the book. (10,3) Lowering the banana onto the book. Open grip. Releasing the banana.

(10,4) Moving the claw up after releasing the banana.

But didn't have 5 cm overlap with the banana, and actually  the claw also collides with the book (which is a trickier problem).

I pointed out the first error:

Does the grip have 3 cm overlapping areas with the banana when the grip is closed in your suggested solution?

And it corrected itself about the banana but still collided with the book.

Thanks for the clarifications, that makes sense.

I agree it might be easier to start as a software development company, and then you might develop something for a client that you can replicate and sell to other.

Just anecdotal evidence, I use ChatGPT when I code, the speedup in my case is very modest (less than 10%), but I expect future models to be more useful for coding.

I agree with the main thesis "sell the service instead of the model access" , but just wanted to point out that the Upworks page you link to says:

GoodFirms places a basic app between $40,000 to $60,000, a medium complexity app between $61,000 to $69,000, and a feature-rich app between $70,000 to $100,000.

Which is significantly lower than the $100-200k you quote for a simple app.

Personally I think even $40k sounds way to expensive for a what I consider a basic app.

On another note, I think your suggestion of building products and selling to many clients is far better than developing something for a single client. Compare developing one app for 40k and sell to one company, with developing one product that you can sell for 40k to a large number of companies.


 

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