If you know of any other recent public evaluations of our cost-effectiveness, post them in the comments! I tried to be thorough in listing everything I could find that takes any kind of stance on the value of donating to Lightcone.
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This year's Spring ACX Meetup everywhere in Zürich.
Location: Blatterwiese in front of the chinese garden (In case of rain we are inside the garden) – https://plus.codes/8FVC9H32+VH
Contact: acxzurich@proton.me
Domain: Farming Construction and Craftsmanship
Link: Simple off grid Cabin that anyone can build & afford: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOOXmfkXpkM (and many other builds on his channel)
Person: Dave Whipple
Background: Construction contractor, DIY living off-grid in Alaska and Michigan.
Why: He and his wife bootstrapped themselves building their own cabin, then house, sell at a profit, rinse and repeat a few times. There are many, many videos of people building their own cabins, etc. Dave's are simple, clear, lucid, from a guy who's done it many times and has skin in the game.
I agree that points 12 and 13 are at least mildly controversial. From the PoV of someone adopting these rules, it'd be enough if you changed the "will"s to "may"s.
By and large, the fewer points that are binding for the market creator, the easier it is to adopt the rules. I'm fine with a few big points being strongly binding (e.g. #15), and also fine with the more aspirational points where "Zvi's best judgement" automatically gets replaced with "Vitor's best judgement". But I'd rather not commit to some minutiae I don't really care about.
(It's more about "attack surface" or maybe in this case we should say "decision surface" than actual strong disagreement with the points, if that makes sense?)
Very interesting read, thank you!
How did you end up doing this work? Did you deliberately seek it out? What are teachers, probation officers and so on (everyone who is not a guard) like? What drives them?
This kind of thing has existed (for example optimal hardware layout) for decades. It sounds a lot less impressive when you sub out "AI" for "algorithm".
"for certain aspects of computer science, computer scientists are already worse than even naive sorting algorithms". Yes, we know that machines have a bunch of advantages over humans. Calculation speed and huge, perfect memory being the most notable.
Where on earth are you pulling those predictions about GPT-5 and 6 from? I'd take the other side of that bet.
The original chart is misleading in more ways than one. Facebook, Netflix et al might be household names now, but this has more to do with their staying power and network effects than any sort of exceedingly fast adoption.
I also suspect that chatGPT has a bunch of inactive accounts, as it's essentially a toy without an actual use-case for most people.
Recognise that almost all the Kolmogorov complexity of a particular simulacrum is dedicated to specifying the traits, not the valences. The traits — polite, politically liberal, racist, smart, deceitful — are these massively K-complex concepts, whereas each valence is a single floating point, or maybe even a single bit!
A bit of a side note, but I have to point out that Kolmogorov complexity in this context is basically a fake framework. There are many notions of complexity, and there's nothing in your argument that requires Kolmogorov specifically.
It seems to me that you are attempting to write a timeless, prescriptive reference piece. Then a paragraph sneaks in that is heavily time and culture dependent.
I'm honestly not certain about the intended meaning. I think you intent mask wearing to be an example of a small and reasonable cost. As a non-american, I'm vaguely aware what costco is, but don't know if there's some connotation or reference to current events that I'm missing. And if I'm confused now, imagine someone reading this in 2030...
Without getting into the object-level discussion, I think such references have no place in the kind of post this is supposed to be, and should be cut or made more neutral.
Container logistics is an interesting but complicated topic, with a lot of implicit knowledge kept by industry insiders. In this post, I'll give a brief overview, based on my experiences having worked in the industry for three different shipping companies (all located in Chile) over a period of five years. Hopefully, this will allow people to get more accurate models of the heavy port congestion in Long Beach that has been theorized about extensively here on LW. I can't comment on circumstances specific to that port or the US more generally; but there's a set of underlying intuitions that should give people a solid, universal foundation to think about the issue. Based... (read 3168 more words →)
What I linked was a stance, an evaluation of your cost-effectiveness. You were explicitly asking for exactly that kind of thing.
But on 2nd thought, I retract the link I posted. There's also quite a bit of sneering in there that distracts from the bits I consider important, which are these:
Running Less Wrong doesn't (have to) cost 1.4M per year. It's a website. Websites of this scale can be run at 1/10th the cost, or even 1/100th the cost if you're frugal. Having extremely onerous community management practices is a choice you're making.
If someone believes that a large part of your value is in hosting LW, and what you do outside this pales in importance (or may even be negative!), then there's a bundling issue for that person. It's impossible to donate to the upkeep of LW without donating to all that other stuff, correct?