Your microbiome is a bunch of microorganisms living in your gut and other epithelial places. You have a symbiotic relation with this population. You feed it. It helps you digest. Your microbiome population talks to you. It creates chemical signals that affect digestion and possibly your feeling of hunger. The...
If, during a line of reasoning, you change the definitions of what you are talking about, you can prove anything. If someone is trying to follow your argument and they ask you to define what you mean by something, you could assume they are just too new to the field...
thank you.
Why down votes and a statement that I am wrong because I misunderstood.
This is a mean spirited reaction when I lead with admission that I could not follow the argument. I offered a concrete example and stated that I could not follow the original thesis as applied to the concrete example. No one took me up on this.
Are you too advanced to stoop to my level of understanding and help me figure out how this abstract reasoning applies to a particular example? Is the shut down mechanism suggested by Yudkowsky too simple?
I tried to follow with a particular shut down mechanism in mind and this whole argument is just too abstract to see how it applies.
Yudkowsky gave us a shut down mechanism in his Time Magazine article. He said we could bomb* the data centers. Can you show how these theorems cast doubt on this shut down proposal?
*"destroy a rogue datacenter by airstrike." - https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/
Compute is not the limiting factor for mammalian intelligence. Mammalian brains are organized to maximize communication. The gray matter, where most compute is done, is mostly on the surface and the white matter which dominate long range communication, fills the interior, communicating in the third dimension.
If you plot volume of white matter vs. gray matter across the various mammal brains, you find that the volume of white matter grows super linearly with volume of gray matter. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1716956116
As brains get larger, you need a higher ratio of communication/compute.
Your calculations, and Cotras as well, focus on FLOPs but the intelligence is created by communication.
dy/dt = f(y) = m*y whose solution is the compound interest exponential, y = e^(m*t).
Why not estimate m?
An exactly right law of diminishing returns that lets the system fly through the soft takeoff keyhole is unlikely.
This blog post contains a false dichotomy. In the equation, m can take any value and there is no special keyhole value, and there is no line between fast and slow.
The description in the subsequent discussion is a distraction. The posted equation is meaningful only if we have an estimate of the growth rate.
We don't have to tell it about the off switch!
You said nothing about positive contributions. When you throw away the positives, everything is negative.
Why didn't you also compute the expectation this project contributes towards human flourishing?
If you only count the negative contributions, you will find that the expectation value of everything is negative.
The ML engineer is developing an automation technology for coding and is aware of AI risks . The engineers polite acknowledgment of the concerns is met with your long derivation of how many current and future people she will kill with this.
Automating an aspect of coding is part of a long history of using computers to help design better computers, starting with Carver Mead's realization that you don't need humans to cut rubylith film to form each transistor.
You haven't shown an argument that this project will accelerate the scenario you describe. Perhaps the engineer is brushing you off because your reasoning is broad enough to apply to all improvements in computing technology. You will get more traction if you can show more specifically how this project is "bad for the world".
Your microbiome is a bunch of microorganisms living in your gut and other epithelial places. You have a symbiotic relation with this population. You feed it. It helps you digest.
Your microbiome population talks to you. It creates chemical signals that affect digestion and possibly your feeling of hunger. The extent of the influence of your microbiome on your brain is not well known, but the pathways for that influence are. The gut microbiome has been shown to produce various chemicals and signaling molecules that can influence the function of the digestive system and the immune system. It produces short-chain fatty acids that may cross the blood-brain barrier.
When it is out... (read more)
If, during a line of reasoning, you change the definitions of what you are talking about, you can prove anything.
If someone is trying to follow your argument and they ask you to define what you mean by something, you could assume they are just too new to the field and not familiar with the widely accepted definitions of common terms. It could also be that they are trying to follow your logic and they might be detecting a drift in your definitions.
I often find myself trying to divine the definition from the context of the argument. Whether or not an aspect of an argument has been explicitly defined, I find it useful... (read more)
Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for our assurance of its territorial integrity.
The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances commits us to help defend Ukraine.
What "non-appeasing de-escalation strategies" are you proposing. We could remind Russia that it is a signatory to the Budapest Memorandum. Do you think that will move them to withdraw?
This letter offers nothing.