Wiki Contributions


Someone once told me that the odds of winning the lottery are smaller than the odds of dying before the draw. 

If you wait to buy your ticket until the last minute before the draw, your chance of winning is higher than your chance of dying before the draw.

We need more people like this rationalist when we rely on self-published studies.

This is like the alternative energy problem.  If we have an intermittent source, like wind and solar, and we want to feed a demand that is not flexible, we need to build a backup which has the capacity to deliver to a large load.
  the cost of the backup supply has to be amortized over the small amount of time it is needed.

The missile gap was a lie by the US Air Force to justify building more nukes, by falsely claiming that the Soviet Union had more nukes than the US

This statement is not supported by the link used as a reference.  Was it a lie?  The reference speaks to failed intelligence and political manipulation using the perceived gap. The phrasing above suggests conspiracy.

You have more than an order of magnitude scatter in your plot, but you write 3 significant figures to your calculated doubling period. Is this precision of value?  

Also, your black data appears to have something different going on prior to 2008.  It would be worthwhile doing a separate fit to post 2008 data.  Eyeballing it, it is longer than 4 year doubling time.

AI is dependent on humans.  It gets power and data from humans and it cannot go on without humans.   We don't trade with it, we dictate terms. 

Do we fear a world where we have turned over mining, production and powering everything to the AI. Getting there would take a lot more than self amplifying feedback loop of a machine rewriting its own code. 

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