**Technological forecasting** means making predictions about future technological advances.

One approach is extrapolating from past data. Extrapolating an exponential quickly. leads to very large changes. Moore's Law, which says that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles every two years, is the classic example. Bela Nagy's performance curve database, perhaps the most systematic attempt at such extrapolation, has found similar trends in many technologies. Ray Kurzweil is a well-known advocate of exponential technological growth models. On the other hand, an exponential curve is indistinguishable from the early stages of a logistic curve that eventually approaches a ceiling, and all real world exponentials fail to continue their growth. Consequently any attempt to extrapolate exponential growth requires entertaining all the mechanisms that might curtail growth.

Another approach is expert elicitation, such as in the survey taken at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference, and a survey of artificial general intelligence researchers on AGI timelines....

Posts tagged *Technological Forecasting*