Let's say I make six predictions or statements that I believe to be true about someone I've never met and I say the statements taken as a whole are true with P = 0.7. Note that I do not claim to be psychic.
The P of each statement must then lie between 0.7 and 1.0, and if they are equal then the P of each statement is 0.7 ^ (1/6) = 0.94. Let's say 0.9 because I doubt any statement about this type of probability should be reported with two significant figures, and perhaps even one significant figure without an attached tolerance band is a bit of a stretch.
I'd say that a P this high for each statement, given this example, is well nigh impossible.
Maybe I'm not so underqualified as to be unable to enjoy this forum.
Thanks, I bookmarked that, and will be more specific.
"Dark arts" =
Don't quit your day job.
Can you be specific, without paraphrasing? And no ad hominem, please.
At this point you might as well let the cat all the way out of the bag, if there is a cat to be let out.
Am I in physical danger? If yes, from whom?
BTW, this is about the strangest thread I've ever participated in. I guess it's an opportunity to learn, which is what I hope I'm doing on this forum.
We've gotten derailed.
All we need do is ask O. Wilde what his or her intentions were in those posts.
Note to readers: I never said it was hypothetical.
And, the textbooks written about my personality type say I have a sensitivity to other people's issues.
And, I'm not starting from zero; over the years I've had office mates and others who acted in a similar way and so I know what works.
Strangely, some of these people may actually have wanted my approval or recognition. Very few get that, even those who are well-behaved. I think I know what causes this, but that info is classified - sorry.
They may have spotted ways that we two are similar. Of course, the idea that I am similar to these verbal bullies is repugnant to me but it's very likely accurate. In my whole life maybe a half dozen people fit this pattern.
Also, there are books on "Verbal Judo" but they are hard to come by from my local library. I scoop up what I can. As long as all I do is counterpunch, block-then-strike, I feel I have the moral high ground.
But, that aside, if this is a false positive for a mind/head/word game, what do you make of this exchange? Is the literal meaning the only thing going on?
In your whole life, have you ever met someone who "put one over on you", left you with the feeling that you've been "had" and you couldn't even verbalize how? If yes, in retrospect, what really went on? Did you act optimally? What would you change for future encounters of this type?
Thanks for reading. :)
It's not your call.
Who are you?
It says that I take for fact what people say who study this type of thing.
I suggest that your conduct in this post is offensive.