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During my outreach, onboarding, and lobbying for PauseAI, there’s a pattern of mistaken reasoning I see repeatedly, which I expect to become higher stakes with Senators Sanders and Casar’s recent proposal to ban superintelligence. I’m going to call it Abstraction Equivocation, which is applying implementation or trust level critiques to...
Summary This post documents our process of applying systems dynamics modeling to the problem of AI governance, tracing the feedback loops connecting capability development, public harm, and regulatory constraint. Our research outputs include a model created in Insight Maker, step-by-step documentation, and a set of causal narratives informing the design....
> Doctor: Mr. Burns, I'm afraid you are the sickest man in the United States. You have everything! [...] > > Burns: You're sure you just haven't made thousands of mistakes? > > Doctor: Uh, no. No, I'm afraid not. > > Burns: This sounds like bad news! > >...
Lenses Techno-optimism is the belief that the advancement of technology is generally good and has historically made society better. Techno-pessimism is the opposite belief, that technology has generally made the world worse. Both are lenses, or general ways of looking at the world that bring some aspects of reality into...
This essay is based on the ideas of Roman Yampolskiy’s “AI: Unexplainable, Unpredictable, Uncontrollable.” I am not following his reasoning closely, but rather using it as a jumping off point, and the last section is mostly my own reasoning. TL;DR: Things break. Big things break more bigly. ASI double plus...
(Link to calculator described in post: https://will9371.itch.io/probability-calculator) On the Correct Usage of p(doom) On it's face, p(doom) is a bit of a weird concept. On the one hand, it speaks to global trends regarding future technology involving a lot of unknowns and thus necessarily draws heavily from intuition. On the...
Over the course of this sequence, we've discussed what it means to think of Large Language Models (LLMs) as tools, agents, or simulators: exploring definitions, considering alignment implications, responding to recent developments, hypothesizing where different modes of operation might show up in the network, and speculating how different training methods...