Xodarap

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Are the social sciences challenging because of fundamental difficulties or because of imposed ones?

Thanks for this interesting idea!

I'm curious how you think this explains historical scientific progress. It seems like Ptolemy 2,000 years ago could make better predictions about celestial mechanics than sociologists today can make about crime rates, for example. Modern pollsters have access to way more data points than Ptolemy, but I think his predictions about the position of a planet 10 years in the future are more accurate than pollsters' predictions of elections 10 weeks in the future.

It seems hard to explain this without somehow describing celestial mechanics as "simpler".

For moderately well-resourced people in the US, how quickly will things go from "uncomfortable" to "too late to exit"?

It would be surprising to me if gold was useful. The things you most want are presumably travel (flight/car/fuel for your car), and those things generally seem to be sold by large corporations which don't accept gold.

I guess in theory if you have some gold and your assets get frozen but your neighbors assets are still liquid, you could sell them gold in exchange for cash (or crypto)? But I'm not sure if you can even buy plane tickets with cash these days. You can definitely use cash for buying gas though I guess.

For moderately well-resourced people in the US, how quickly will things go from "uncomfortable" to "too late to exit"?

Thank you for asking this - I would really like to know what others are planning. My current (very low confidence) triggers:

Scenario: Trump doesn’t leave office, causing a constitutional crisis. Exit conditions:

  • November 5 (2 days after election): media generally report Biden won but Trump doesn’t concede
  • December 1: Results are contested without a clear end state

Scenario: Cultural revolution analog. Exit conditions:

  • Government officials arrested for political reasons
  • Assassination of leader by organized movement
  • Civilian lynchings etc. supported by government officials
  • Assets of general civilians frozen

Regarding assets being frozen: the following are travel agencies which accept cryptocurrencies:

Keeping enough crypto for flights is a small enough cost to me that I'm planning to do so.

I also looked a bit into travel, which is slightly complicated by me having a cat. The easiest is Mexico, which can be visited for up to 180 days with no visa, and cats do not need any certification. Cats can be brought to Canada with a rabies vaccination certificate. My basic thought is that if one of these triggers happen I would go to Canada or Mexico on vacation fairly reflexively, and then reevaluate my options once there.

Open & Welcome Thread - June 2020

I also have started making plans and would love to hear what others are thinking.

Review of "Lifecycle Investing"

Thanks for the helpful summary. Does this imply that young people should invest in cryptocurrency?

Looking at the Samuelson share equation, I'm not sure that premia have been established for crypto? But they do seem more volatile, and perhaps you can invoke CAPM or something to therefore claim they have a premium?

My impression is that they are also easier to leverage, although I'm less sure of that.

Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread

Note that this can act as a Faraday cage around your phone and potentially reduce your reception.

With the fullback of my phone covered in copper I got ~0.2 Mbps on 4G. When I removed a 1 in.² on the upper left (where the antenna is on a Google pixel 3) it went up to 13 Mbps.

I assume having everything except for a small square covered is still pretty good, so I'm doing that.

Why are people so bad at dating?

I don't think the app has much of an incentive to do this – each individual person wants to look more attractive, but if everyone looks 10% more attractive I'm not sure the community as a whole is benefited.

Some apps do provide feedback on which photos you should choose though, which is kind of similar.

Why are people so bad at dating?

Thanks! Do you have an analogous confusion about why people are leaving metaphorical $20 bills on the ground? (E.g. you wonder why people are wasting all their time on Tinder instead of hanging out with their friends or whatever you think is more effective.) Or do you think that people are behaving in a pretty optimal manner?

Why are people so bad at dating?

Thanks! I agree that trying too hard or seeming fake is a big turnoff and would decrease your chances of success, but choosing better photos seems like a pretty covert activity (and one which seems to have reasonably high social approval).

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