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Thanks for writing this up! I wonder how feasible it is to just do a cycle of bulking and cutting and then do one of body recomposition and compare the results. I expect that the results will be too close to tell a difference, which I guess just means that you should do whichever is easier.

Xodarap3mo10

I think it would be helpful  for helping others calibrate, though obviously it's fairly personal.

Xodarap3mo30

Possibly too sensitive, but could you share how the photos performed on Photfeeler? Particularly what percentile attractiveness? 

Xodarap3mo10

Sure, I think everyone agrees that marginal returns to labor diminish with the number of employees. John's claim though was that returns are non-positive, and that seems empirically false.

Xodarap4mo30

We have Wildeford's Third Law: "Most >10 year forecasts are technically also AI forecasts".

We need a law like "Most statements about the value of EA are technically also AI forecasts".

Xodarap4mo10

Yep that's fair, there is some subjectivity here. I was hoping that the charges from SDNY would have a specific amount that Sam was alleged to have defrauded, but they don't seem to.

Regarding $4B missing: adding in Anthropic gets another $4B on the EA side of the ledger, and founders pledge another $1B. The value produced by Anthropic is questionable, and maybe negative of course, but I think by the strict definition of "donated or built in terms of successful companies" EA comes out ahead.

(And OpenAI gets another $80B, so if you count that then I think even the most aggressive definition of how much FTX defrauded is smaller. But obviously OAI's EA credentials are dubious.)

Xodarap4mo43

EA has defrauded much more money than we've ever donated or built in terms of successful companies

 

FTX is missing $1.8B.  OpenPhil has donated $2.8B. 

Xodarap5mo42

I do think it's at the top of frauds in the last decade, though that's a narrower category.

Nikola went from a peak market cap of $66B to ~$1B today, vs. FTX which went from ~$32B to [some unknown but non-negative number].

I also think the Forex scandal counts as bigger (as one reference point, banks paid >$10B in fines), although I'm not exactly sure how one should define the "size" of fraud.[1] 

I wouldn't be surprised if there's some precise category in which FTX is the top, but my guess is that you have to define that category fairly precisely.

  1. ^

    Wikipedia says "the monetary losses caused by manipulation of the forex market were estimated to represent $11.5 billion per year for Britain’s 20.7 million pension holders alone" which, if anywhere close to true, would make this way bigger than FTX, but I think the methodology behind that number is just guessing that market manipulation made foreign-exchange x% less efficient, and then multiplying through by x%, which isn't a terrible methodology but also isn't super rigorous.

Xodarap6mo10

Oh  yeah, just because it's a reference point that doesn't mean that we should copy them

Xodarap6mo10

I think almost any large organization/company would have gone through a much more comprehensive fault-analysis and would have made many measurable improvements.

I claim YCombinator is a counter example.

(The existence of one counterexample obviously doesn't disagree with the "almost any" claim.)

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