There could be knock-on effects of increasing demand for non-AI-generated analogues, increasing harm.
How long will it take until high-fidelity, AI-generated porn becomes an effective substitute for person-generated porn?
Here are some important factors:
Is it ethical?
Is it legal?
Does the output look genuine?
Is it cost-effective?
Problems to look out for:
A really unpleasant case:
I'm not sure how relevant the slowdown in compute price decrease is to this chart, since it starts in 2018 and the slowdown started 6-8 years ago; likewise, AlexNet, the breakout moment for deep learning, was 9 years ago. So if compute price is the primary rate-limiter, I'd think it would have a more gradual, consistent effect as models get bigger and bigger. The slowdown may mean that models cost quite a lot to train, but clearly huge companies like Nvidia and Microsoft haven't started shying away yet from spending absurd amounts of money to keep growing their models.
I'd hesitate to make predictions based on the slowdown of GPT-3 to Megatron-Turing, for two reasons.
First, GPT-3 represents the fastest, largest increase in model size in this whole chart. If you only look at the models before GPT-3, the drawn trend line tracks well. Note how far off the trend GPT-3 itself is.
Second, GPT-3 was released almost exactly when COVID became a serious concern in the world beyond China. I must imagine that this slowed down model development, but it will be less of a factor going forward.
On your question about Hitler getting eugenic ideas from the US—yes, there's some evidence that he did. Although I haven't read it yet, the book "Hitler's American Model: The United States and the Making of Nazi Race Law" looks like a readable introduction to this concept.
Yup, it's a problem. As an American I've had an optometrist not want to give me my prescription!
Indeed! It wasn't rare by any means. A great book about this is Illiberal Reformers.
That's definitely fair, though it's plausible that some benefits of education do not depend solely on increases in income or social connections. For example, a meta-analysis by Ritchie et al. suggests that education may itself improve intelligence. I do agree, however, that more fine-grained (and more difficult to measure) metrics than "number of years of education" would help sharpen the argument.