How long will it take until high-fidelity, AI-generated porn becomes an effective substitute for person-generated porn?

Here are some important factors: Is it ethical? Is it legal? Does the output look genuine? Is it cost-effective?

Possible benefits:

• More Privacy. If significant markets still exist for porn images, the images taken of porn actors will be used for data rather than as-is, which means that their identity can be protected from the consumer.
• More Boutique Offerings. If massive volumes of fairly derivative AI-generated pornography can be created basically for free, this may also drive demand for highly produced, well-compensated, commissioned pornography. Think handcrafted Etsy goods in the current age of globalized mass production, or DeviantArt commissioned hentai drawings, or OnlyFans.
• More Variety, Lower Cost. From a consumer perspective, AI generation opens up infinite horizons and lowers the barrier to entry.
• Less Human Trafficking. If the market splits into mass-produced AI-generated porn and boutique offerings from a select number of actors, this may reduce demand for people to do run-of-the-mill porn shoots.

Problems to look out for:

• Illegal Material. Large crawls with little oversight will almost certainly pick up images of child pornography, violence, etc. This will need to be cleaned.
• Copyright. These models will use tons of source images. How do you work out copyright and payment for use? This problem is similar to what Github's CoPilot is going through right now.
• Less Compensation. With more competition from AI generation, many porn actors who aren't popular enough for dedicated followings may be compensated less for their work.
• More Human Trafficking. Maybe the demand for training images is so high, and the normal rate of compensation for taking those images is pushed so low that it's undesirable for mainstream porn actors, that this increases human trafficking?

A really unpleasant case:

• Illegal Porn Without Illegal Training Data. What if a model is created that can create child porn or snuff porn or other horrific things without using the corresponding material for training data? The analogue here is that drawn or 3d-modeled hentai showing this kind of material is not considered illegal in many countries—will this hold for photorealistic content?