Yandong Zhang

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https://www.sanders.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/Masks-for-All-2022-Final-Text.pdf

Understand the exponential function: R0 of the COVID

Omicron Makes Biden’s Vaccine Mandates Obsolete

There is no evidence so far that vaccines are reducing infections from the fast-spreading variant.

By Luc Montagnier and Jed Rubenfeld

Jan. 9, 2022 5:20 pm ET
----WSJ 

 

I did not believe the user of this website was really about reason, as this post was devoted greatly.

Equilibrium point of the social evolution under the selective pressure of COVID-19?

Should be smaller R0. However, I meant not to fix it. It took 22 months that CDC start considering to recommend N95 and some areas (Salt Lake city) starts giving free N95.

People who did not understand the richness,fastness, unpredictable, of COVID's mution could not appreciate my conclusoin two years ago. 

Understand the exponential function: R0 of the COVID

For knowing this result, u need not to have an "accurate" model with many dependence assumptions. 

Understand the exponential function: R0 of the COVID

Clearly the Exponential function dominate the linear function (benefit of vaccines/re-infect immune) in UK.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1473752247376961543

Understand the exponential function: R0 of the COVID

Another reason is, all extra dependent hypothesis will be explored equally at an earlier stage of a research topic. In brief, most trash papers compete each other at the earlier stage and only after some time, a dominate theory/model will be established. The competition process actually is very similar  as the process of virus evolution.  At the earlier stage, there is no reason to assume a dominate new model yet. Thus, no heterogenous should be assumed.

Understand the exponential function: R0 of the COVID

There is no reason to assume heterogeneous, as the COVID is so new and the information/knowledge about its mutation direction is very shallow till now.

Omicron Post #7

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-cases-doubling-15-3-days-areas-with-local-spread-who-2021-12-18/

 

With the speed of double 1-3 days, I did not believe other details/aspects played any significant role. Only the transmission control/observe has relationship with the true reality.

Understand the exponential function: R0 of the COVID

Let's assume there were many COVID mutated variants. What is the best model for the average of the spreading path of all those mutations? It is the SIR model, as it has less dependency. More "accurate" models have more assumptions, hypothesis and depended conditions, which are not reliable. In brief, any other models looks more or less like the result of the SIR model. The difference cancels out.

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