To my best knowledge, there is no data evidence that the vaccines do prevent the transmission of the delta and Omicron (Please fix if I was wrong). The effect of reduce the mortality rate is LINEAR. A simple calculation suggests that the LINEAR contribution could be dominate by the transmission...
As discussed and analyses in the below posts, "enough people wearing respirators" could be an equilibrium point of the final social evolution under the selective pressure of COVID-19, because people wearing resprator (and gloves) could block the propagating path of the virus and lead to smarespiratorll R0. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oHT2WZxFA9CSPMicb/the-hammer-and-the-mask-a-call-to-action https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yKYg6D7HNxLuJDcLS/hammer-and-mask-wide-spread-use-of-reusable-particle Could...
By Luc Montagnier and Jed Rubenfeld
Jan. 9, 2022 5:20 pm ET
----WSJ
I did not believe the user of this website was really about reason, as this post was devoted greatly.
Should be smaller R0. However, I meant not to fix it. It took 22 months that CDC start considering to recommend N95 and some areas (Salt Lake city) starts giving free N95.
People who did not understand the richness,fastness, unpredictable, of COVID's mution could not appreciate my conclusoin two years ago.
For knowing this result, u need not to have an "accurate" model with many dependence assumptions.
Clearly the Exponential function dominate the linear function (benefit of vaccines/re-infect immune) in UK.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1473752247376961543
Another reason is, all extra dependent hypothesis will be explored equally at an earlier stage of a research topic. In brief, most trash papers compete each other at the earlier stage and only after some time, a dominate theory/model will be established. The competition process actually is very similar as the process of virus evolution. At the earlier stage, there is no reason to assume a dominate new model yet. Thus, no heterogenous should be assumed.
There is no reason to assume heterogeneous, as the COVID is so new and the information/knowledge about its mutation direction is very shallow till now.
With the speed of double 1-3 days, I did not believe other details/aspects played any significant role. Only the transmission control/observe has relationship with the true reality.
Omicron doubles in 1.5 to 3 days in areas. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-cases-doubling-15-3-days-areas-with-local-spread-who-2021-12-18/
Mathematically, the consequence caused by the transmission >>>>> death rate.
Let's assume there were many COVID mutated variants. What is the best model for the average of the spreading path of all those mutations? It is the SIR model, as it has less dependency. More "accurate" models have more assumptions, hypothesis and depended conditions, which are not reliable. In brief, any other models looks more or less like the result of the SIR model. The difference cancels out.
To my best knowledge, there is no data evidence that the vaccines do prevent the transmission of the delta and Omicron (Please fix if I was wrong). The effect of reduce the mortality rate is LINEAR. A simple calculation suggests that the LINEAR contribution could be dominate by the transmission rate increase due to the exponential effects. In other words, the life saving due to the vaccine is not comparable to the more life loss due to the transmission rate increase.
Thus, the priority of the policy should be reduce the transmission, instead of the linear factors. Am I wrong?
By the way, I am not anti-vaccine.
As discussed and analyses in the below posts, "enough people wearing respirators" could be an equilibrium point of the final social evolution under the selective pressure of COVID-19, because people wearing resprator (and gloves) could block the propagating path of the virus and lead to smarespiratorll R0.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oHT2WZxFA9CSPMicb/the-hammer-and-the-mask-a-call-to-action
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yKYg6D7HNxLuJDcLS/hammer-and-mask-wide-spread-use-of-reusable-particle
Could anybody provide other candidates of the final equilibrium point?
https://www.sanders.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/Masks-for-All-2022-Final-Text.pdf