Zvi

Sequences

Immoral Mazes
Slack and the Sabbath
The Darwin Game

Comments

Covid 11/26: Thanksgiving

From an old Garrison Keillor Thanksgiving special:

Thanks to all those who when thanked

Don't sit there as if insentient

Or mutter don't mention it

And don't act like your heartfelt mercy

Were some kind of heresy

Which makes you want to grab 'em by the ears and yank 'em

Thanks for people

Who will let you thank 'em!

Yeah, I got enough pushback on that that I'm taking this down for now.

The Darwin Game - Rounds 21-500

An interesting note is that BendBot gets an endgame advantage here for sometimes starting 2, but if there were 101 turns per round instead of 100 that would have been punished instead.

Covid 11/19: Don’t Do Stupid Things

I Googled for "health care workers" and was assuming they would count as part of that 18 million, but didn't look more carefully than that. Some health care workers will refuse the vaccine, at least for a few months, and some have already had the virus, and it's all ballpark estimates. The basic idea is, you can do the consensus-essential people more or less in 2020, but that's your whole budget.

Covid 11/19: Don’t Do Stupid Things

To clarity I meant in the near term rather than comparing to March - if you want to look at the week over week death change this week look at the case over case change 2-3 weeks before that. Didn't mean death rates didn't fall since April.

If others think that was unclear I will edit to clarify.

2020 Election: Prediction Markets versus Polling/Modeling Assessment and Postmortem

I haven't used FTX because illegal in USA slash usual worries. So you could deposit BTC, bet on the election, and if you win always get back your BTC+15%? Or not?

2020 Election: Prediction Markets versus Polling/Modeling Assessment and Postmortem

That goes too far. What happens is that the line is less accurate than normal, and there will almost always be good value if you look around the various offerings. But there are a lot of forces that will come in hard if the number gets super wrong, and a lot of ways for even relatively dumb money to know more or less what the odds should be. So if a WC match is actually 65-35, it might be 60-40 or 70-30 instead, which is a great opportunity, but it's not going to be useless. It depends what you already know - you should have a fair value in mind, expect a second value that's different, then look at what you find. And if it's not what you expected, maybe you modeled the public wrong, but also maybe you're missing something. 

Basically, if you want to know who the favorite is, the line is trustworthy unless it's super close (52-48 or something). Exactly how big a favorite, or especially various secondary lines, and you get less trustworthy. 

In an election, you don't have those kind of anchors, so it's easier to get far out of whack. 

2020 Election: Prediction Markets versus Polling/Modeling Assessment and Postmortem

Looking at that page, I wonder whether the price would be different if it was in BTC rather than USD. Right now, if I'm confident enough in blockchain to put a large amount on this exchange, holding that amount in USD rather than BTC for several months seems like a substantial cost to such a person, perhaps on the order of what you can win in this market.

2020 Election: Prediction Markets versus Polling/Modeling Assessment and Postmortem

Was meant to fix that, will shortly. Should be fixed now - it's a joint title that I fixed in the draft but I forgot to copy over the edit.

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