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Immoral Mazes
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The Darwin Game

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My guess is that different people do it differently, and I am super weird.

For me a lot of the trick is consciously asking if I am providing good incentives, and remembering to consider what the alternative world looks like. 

I don't see this response as harsh at all? I see it as engaging in detail with the substance, note the bill is highly thoughtful overall, with a bunch of explicit encouragement, defend a bunch of their specific choices, and I say I am very happy they offered this bill. It seems good and constructive to note where I think they are asking for too much? While noting that the right amount of 'any given person reacting thinks you went too far in some places' is definitely not zero.

Excellent. On the thresholds, got it, sad that I didn't realize this, and that others didn't either from what I saw.

I appreciate the 'long post is long' problem but I do think you need the warnings to be in all the places someone might see the 10^X numbers in isolation, if you don't want this to happen, and it probably happens anyway, on the grounds of 'yes that was technically not a proposal but of course it will be treated like one.' And there's some truth in that, and that you want to use examples that are what you would actually pick right now if you had to pick what to actually do (or propose).

I do think the numbers I suggest are about as low as one could realistically get until we get much stronger evidence of impending big problems.

Sounds like your scale is stingier than mine is a lot of it. And it makes sense that the recommendations come apart at the extreme high end, especially for older films. The 'for the time' here is telling. 

On my scale, if I went 1 for 7 on finding 4.0+ films in a year, then yeah I'd find that a disappointing year. 

In other news, I tried out Scaruffi. I figured I'd watch the top pick. Number was Citizen Kane which I'd already watched (5.0 so that was a good sign), which was Repulsion. And... yeah, that was not a good selection method. Critics and I do NOT see eye to eye. 

I also scanned their ratings of various other films, which generally seemed reasonable for films I'd seen, although with a very clear 'look at me I am a movie critic' bias, including one towards older films. I don't know how to correct for that properly. 

Real estate can definitely be a special case, because (1) you are also doing consumption, (2) it is non-recourse and you never get a margin call, which provides a lot of protection and (3) The USG is massively subsidizing you doing that...

There are lead times to a lot of these actions, costs to do so are often fixed, and no reason to expect the rules changes not to happen. I buy that it is efficient to do so early.

'Greed' I consider a non-sequitur here, the manager will profit maximize.

I'm curious how many films you saw - having only one above 3.5 on that scale seems highly disappointing. 

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