Zvi

Sequences

COVID-19 Updates and Analysis
Immoral Mazes
Slack and the Sabbath
The Darwin Game

Wiki Contributions

Comments

Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over

If they had promoted restrictions I'd have bought supplies.

It's more like, oh, there's enough people trying to do something useful that they're warning them not to, oh no. But also I did notice I shouldn't have updated!

Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over

Presumably we still should have shifted everything over anyway, it's a freeroll that can only help?

Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over

I have to assume the 11 day delay is unusual, or even that perhaps that case didn't actually come from Egypt. If it usually took 11 days then there's no way it grows this fast (and if it still does, seriously, it's time to give up.)

Paxlovid Remains Illegal: 11/24 Update

Note: I was moving quickly, and did the wrong calculation for the lower bound earlier. It is now 5k rather than 20k. 

Paxlovid Remains Illegal: 11/24 Update

Um, I was assuming everyone would understand that this wasn't correct? Are we so fargone I can't do this?

Paxlovid Remains Illegal: 11/24 Update

Pretty sure I directly addressed this, as did Eliezer in his thread (and there's at least one more explanation I didn't mention, which is that you can target the vulnerable over time instead of giving it to everyone if you're short). Also pretty sure this isn't true even if you accept the premise.

Paxlovid Remains Illegal: 11/24 Update

I asked mods (well, emailed Oliver about) how to make the footnotes work right - they're good on Substack but broken in WP and LW then imports from WP. Growing pains of switching to the SS editor, whereas the WP editor didn't have footnotes worth using at all. 

Covid 11/18: Paxlovid Remains Illegal
  1. This requires (A) Covid-19 will remain a serious threat long enough for (B) kids to grow up while Covid-19 is still in a form where 'natural immunity' would remain importantly helpful but (C) the vaccine held up long enough that they didn't get infected, if they do get infected they're better off being vaccinated first and (D) the vaccine protection then after that goes away. That seems like an insane parlay.
  2. The risks of the vaccine remain trivial by comparison even for children.
  3. The social benefits of child vaccinations, including letting people act less crazy both in general and around this particular child, are large. 
Covid 11/18: Paxlovid Remains Illegal

Sadly I do think that this needs to be a costly signal.

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