Last week: Covid-19 6/18: The Virus Goes South

Off-topic reminder that this is happening: New York Times, Please Do Not Threaten The Safety of Scott Alexander By Revealing His True Name

The United States has failed to contain Covid-19. The fight is over in large sections of the country. We have lost.

There is no state capacity left to fight this. No will. Faced with this disease, large sections of the country have chosen herd immunity.

We can only hope it kicks in at a relatively low threshold, that our treatments have improved, and that immunity is long lasting.

Hospitals are already being overwhelmed throughout the South. Things there rapidly getting worse day by day. Even here in New York, where hope for containment is strongest, there are troubling signs. My declaration of local victory might prove premature, at least when it comes to the city itself.

Let’s run the numbers. They’re pretty alarming.

Note that starting next week I plan to truncate the numbers for space reasons, unless I get feedback that I shouldn’t do that.

Positive Tests by Region

Date	WEST	MIDWEST	SOUTH	NE ex-NY	NY
Mar 19-Mar 25	5744	6293	7933	8354	28429
Mar 26-Apr 1	15684	20337	24224	34391	52901
Apr 2-8	19455	31148	39618	56772	65604
Apr 9-15	16291	29267	35570	61921	64463
Apr 16-22	20065	34130	33932	64669	43437
Apr 23-29	20263	42343	33773	62189	42475
Apr 30-May 6	23216	49205	37880	51693	24287
May 7-May 13	22419	43256	37591	40209	16683
May 14-May 20	22725	42762	40343	39273	13709
May 21-May 27	23979	39418	42977	26434	10595
May 28-June 3	32200	31504	50039	24250	9120
June 4-June 10	35487	24674	55731	16622	6071
June 11-June 17	41976	22510	75787	12905	4986
June 18-June 24	66292	26792	107221	10922	4524

Infections by Region 6-25

Date	WEST	MIDWEST	SOUTH	NE ex-NY	NY
Mar 19-Mar 25	138	104	144	116	278
Mar 26-Apr 1	380	615	572	606	1656
Apr 2-8	707	1454	1309	2115	4327
Apr 9-15	890	2195	1596	3577	5318
Apr 16-22	1033	2343	1727	5147	3716
Apr 23-29	1128	2588	1685	4722	2713
Apr 30-May 6	1012	2413	1747	4908	2582
May 7-May 13	1082	2288	1597	3911	1416
Apr 23-29	1090	2060	1442	3578	963
Apr 30-May 6	775	1723	1290	2341	667
May 28-June 3	875	1666	1387	2121	436
June 4-June 10	743	1297	1230	1611	325
June 11-June 17	778	1040	1207	1270	225
June 18-June 24	831	859	1204	908	153

Deaths by Region 6-25

Positive Test percentages:

Date

USA tests

Positive %

NY tests

Posi

...

COVID-19 Updates and Analysis