(This page demonstrates new explanation-based features in Arbital. Please don't post this page to Hacker News or other large sites, since Arbital's features are still very much under development. Commenting or editing on Arbital currently requires a special invite code and is not generally available. Want to speed up the day when Arbital will be available more widely? If you are a talented programmer interested in working for Arbital or you are an accredited investor interested in Arbital, you can contact Alexei Andreev at alexei@arbital.com. (This is not an offer to sell securities nor a solicitation to buy securities. This is merely a solicitation of interest to begin a discussion with the Company’s officers. Any offer to buy or sell securities will be made by formal documents and be made to accredited investors only, in accordance with Title II of the JOBS Act.))
According to its advocates, Bayesian reasoning is a way of seeing the world, and our beliefs about the world, in the light of probability theory, in particular Bayes's Theorem or Bayes's Rule. This probability-theoretic way of seeing the world can apply to scientific issues, to tasks in machine learning, and to everyday life.
This explanation of Bayesian reasoning is hosted on Arbital, a startup and website still under development. It demonstrates the use of several new Arbital features to make complicated explanations easier to write, and steer every user to the text that fits them best. Rather than different pages on Bayes being pitched to different technical levels and different interests, Arbital tries to have a single page where all of your friends can send all of their friends, without everyone needing to find a slightly different URL.
One of these Arbital features is smart links. If you hover your mouse over green text, you'll see a popup with a summary of the page behind the link. These summaries are intended to explain, or remind you of the explanation, quite briefly; so if they're still confusing, click on through. A popup may also contain multiple tabs with summaries of different technical levels, like "Brief", "Summary", and "Technical" tabs. Similarly, whole pages may also have different tabs, which you can click on to see different kinds or levels of explanation.
To start learning, visit Arbital's Guide to Bayes's Rule.
After that, consider visiting the Bayesian update page.