This page demonstrates new explanation-based features in Arbital. Please don't post this page to Hacker News or other large sites, since Arbital's features are still under development and we're not sure it can handle large amounts of traffic. Commenting or editing on Arbital currently requires a special invite code and is not generally available. If you are interested in investing in Arbital and are an accredited investor, you can contact Alexei Andreev at alexei.andreev@gmail.com. (This is not an offer to sell securities nor a solicitation to buy securities. This is merely a solicitation of interest to begin a discussion with the Company’s officers. Any offer to buy or sell securities will be made by formal documents and be made to accredited investors only, in accordance with Title II of the JOBS Act.)
According to its advocates, Bayesian reasoning is a way of seeing the world, and our beliefs about the world, in the light of probability theory, in particular Bayes's Theorem or Bayes's Rule. This probability-theoretic way of seeing the world can apply to scientific issues, to tasks in machine learning, and to everyday life.
This explanation of Bayesian reasoning is hosted on Arbital, a startup and website still under development. It demonstrates the use of several new Arbital features to make complicated explanations easier to write, and steer every user to the text that fits them best. Rather than different pages on Bayes being pitched to different technical levels and different interests, Arbital tries to have a single page where all of your friends can send all of their friends, without everyone needing to find a slightly different URL.
Let's start with a key question for deciding which page versions you'll see by default. You'll always be able to click through to other pages and versions, so nothing will be hidden from you.
[multiple-choice: What level of math do you read easily? a: I'm bad at math. wants: Math 0 b: I'm not bad at math, but I'm not especially good at it either. knows: Math 0 c: I can have fun with math, and I won't be anxious if I see a word problem I don't already know how to solve. knows: Math 0, Math 1 d: I am a programmer, physical engineer, or some other profession that calls on me to think mathematically and abstractly. knows: Math 0, Math 1, Math 2, Ability to read algebra f: I do research-level math. Hit me with the LaTeX formulas. knows: Math 0, Math 1, Math 2, Math 3, Ability to read algebra ]
[!knows-requisite(Math3): [knows-requisite(Math2): [multiple-choice: Cool! Do you read calculus too? a: Yep, I grok integral signs. knows: Ability to read calculus b: Nope, sorry. ] ] ]
One of these Arbital features is smart links. If you hover your mouse over green text, you'll see a popup with a summary, or several summaries in different tabs, of the