I feel like this page, in particular the example, is suggesting that "if the probability of X is > 50%, act as though X were true." This is clearly (to me) untrue, and/or unwise. For instance, suppose you have a box, and a priori there is a 90% chance it contains $10, and a 10% chance it contains a letterbomb. The odds are clearly in favor of $10, but I'd question the sanity of anybody who tried to open the box (without precautions, extra checks, etc.). AFAICT, even when X is probably true, cost/benefit can change what the best course of action is. It seems like this deserves at least a mention.
Hmm... is this a corollary so much as a converse or an addendum? It would be a corollary (by being the contrapositive) if the statement were "Only extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence".
I feel like this page, in particular the example, is suggesting that "if the probability of X is > 50%, act as though X were true." This is clearly (to me) untrue, and/or unwise. For instance, suppose you have a box, and a priori there is a 90% chance it contains $10, and a 10% chance it contains a letterbomb. The odds are clearly in favor of $10, but I'd question the sanity of anybody who tried to open the box (without precautions, extra checks, etc.). AFAICT, even when X is probably true, cost/benefit can change what the best course of action is. It seems like this deserves at least a mention.
Hmm... is this a corollary so much as a converse or an addendum? It would be a corollary (by being the contrapositive) if the statement were "Only extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence".