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Overconfidence

Edited by Grognor, bjr, PeerInfinity, David Joshua Sartor, et al. last updated 14th Sep 2024

Overconfidence is the state of being more certain than is justified, given your priors and the evidence available.

Blog posts

  • Moral Overconfidence by Robin Hanson
  • When Error is High, Simplify by Robin Hanson
  • Academic Overconfidence by Robin Hanson
  • Bosses Prefer Overconfident Managers by Robin Hanson
  • Convenient Overconfidence by Robin Hanson
  • Overconfidence Explained by Robin Hanson
  • On Overconfidence by Scott Alexander

See also

  • Underconfidence
  • Status, Modesty
  • Dangerous knowledge
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