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Open Thread, June 16-30, 2013
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Genes take charge and diets fall by the wayside.

You need a New York Times account to read it, but setting one up only takes a couple of minutes. Here are some exerpts in any case.

Obese people almost always regain weight after weight loss:

So Dr. Hirsch and his colleagues, including Dr. Rudolph L. Leibel, who is now at Columbia University, repeated the experiment and repeated it again. Every time the result was the same. The weight, so painstakingly lost, came right back. But since this was a research study, the investigators were also measuring metabolic changes, psychiatric conditions, body temperature and pulse. And that led them to a surprising conclusion: fat people who lost large amounts of weight might look like someone who was never fat, but they were very different. In fact, by every metabolic measurement, they seemed like people who were starving.

Before the diet began, the fat subjects’ metabolism was normal — the number of calories burned per square meter of body surface was no different from that of people who had never been fat. But when they lost weight, they were burning as much as 24 percent fewer calories per square meter of their surface area than the calories con

... (read more)

On the other hand, here's a study that shows a very strong link between impulse control and weight. I'm not really sure what to believe anymore.

9gwern
The impulse control they use is a facet of Conscientiousness; and we already know Conscientiousness is highly heritable...
7NoSignalNoNoise
Yes, but it is still potentially useful to know how much of the heritability is metabolically vs. behaviorally manifested. Also more generally, we should be careful about mixing different levels of causation.
3NancyLebovitz
Unless I'm missing something, they don't describe the size of the effects of personality that they found, just the strength of the correlations.
2gwern
I'm not too clear on how to interpret hierarchical model coefficients, but they do give at least one description of effect size, on pg6: and pg8:
0NancyLebovitz
Thanks. Those differences are small compared to common differences of BMI, though.
0gwern
Well, yeah, you should've expected that from the small correlations.
1NancyLebovitz
I don't have much knowledge of statistics. You may have forgotten what that's like.
0A1987dM
In principle, something (e.g. how much the mother eats during the pregnancy) might affect both those things, with no causal pathway from one down to the other.

Moderately surprising corollary: so society IS treating fat people in a horribly unjust manner after all. Those boring SJW types who have been going on and on about "fat-shaming" and "thin privilege"... are yet again more morally correct on average than the general public.

Am now mildly ashamed of some previous thoughts and/or attitudes.

What are we to make of the supposedly increasing obesity rate across Western nations? Is this a failure of measurement (e.g. standards for what count as "obesity" are dropping), has the Western diet changed our genetics, or something else altogether?

If it was mainly genetics, then I would think that the obesity rate would remain constant throughout time.

[-]satt120

What are we to make of the supposedly increasing obesity rate across Western nations? [...]

If it was mainly genetics, then I would think that the obesity rate would remain constant throughout time.

Environmental changes over time may have shifted the entire distribution of people's weights upwards without affecting the distribution's variance. This would reconcile an environmentally-driven obesity rate increase with the NYT's report that 70% of the variance is genetic.

4FiftyTwo
The obvious cross comparison would be to look at populations distributions of weight and see if they share the same pattern shifted left or right based on the primary food source.
0zslastman
Hypothesis possibly reconciling link between impulse control and weight, strong heritability of both, resistance to experimental intervention, and society scale shifts in weight: Body weight is largely determined by the 'set point' to which the body's metabolism returns, hence resistance to intervention. This set point can be influenced through lifestyle, hence link to impulse control and changes across time/cultures. However this influence can only be exerted either a) during development and/or b) over longer time scales than are generally used in experiments. This should be easy enough to test. Are there any relevant data on e.g. people raised in non-obesity ridden cultures and then introduced to one? Or on interventions with obese adolescents?l
6Multiheaded
I dunno, ask the OP. I was merely pointing out that in the event that obesity has a more or less significant hereditary/genetic component, the social stigma against it must be an even more horrible and cruel thing than most enlightened people would admit today. (Consider, for example, just the fact that our attractiveness criteria appear to be almost entirely a "social construct" - otherwise it'd be hard to explain the enormity of variance; AFAIK the only human universal is a preference for facial symmetry in either gender. If society could just make certain traits that people are stuck with regardless of their will, and cannot really affect, fall within the norms of "beauty" in a generation or two... then all the "social justice"/"body positivity"/etc campaigns to do so might have a big potential leverage on many people's mental health and happiness. So it must be in fact reasonable and ethical of activists to "police" everyday language for fat-shaming/body-negativity, devote resources and effort to press for better representation in media, etc. Yet again I'm struck by just how rational - in intention and planning, at least - some odd-seeming "activist" stuff comes across as on close examination.)
2A1987dM
A possible hypothesis is that the genes encode your set point weight given optimal nutrition, but if you don't get adequate nutrition during childhood you don't attain it. IIRC something similar is believed to apply to intelligence and height and explain the Flynn effect and the fact that young generations are taller than older ones.
2satt
Flynn effect?
2A1987dM
Sure. Fixed. Thanks.
6coffeespoons
I've moved away slightly from SJW attitudes on various matters, since starting to read LW, Yvain's blog and various other things, however, I've actually moved closer to SJW attitudes to weight, since researching the issue. The fact that weight loss attempts hardly ever work in the long run, is what has changed my views the most.
6Multiheaded
[OT: just noting that one could be "away from SJW attitudes" in different directions, some of them mutually exclusive. For example, on some particular things (racial discrimination, etc) I take the Marxist view that activism can't help the roots of the problem which are endemic to the functioning of capitalism - except that I don't believe it's possible or sane to try and replace global capitalism with something better anytime soon, either... so there might be no hope of reaching "endgame" for some struggles until post-scarcity. Although activists should probably at least try and defend the progress made on them to-date from being optimized away by hostile political agendas.] Actually, I still suspect that the benefiits in increased happiness and mental health would still be better than the marginal efficiency of pressuring lots of people to try and lose weight even if it depended in large part on personal behaviour. And social pressure is notoriously indiscriminate, so any undesirable messages would still hit people who can't or don't really need to change. Plus there are still all the socioeconomic factors outside people's control, etc.
4A1987dM
Whether or not this result is correct, society is definitely shaming the wrong people: some perfectly healthy people (e.g. young women) are shamed for not being as skinny as the models on TV, and not much is being done to prevent morbid obesity in certain people (esp. middle-aged and older) who don't even try to lose weight. (Edited to replace “adult men” with “middle-aged and older” and “eat less” with “lose weight”.)
0Multiheaded
Yeah, and so it looks more and more that (as terribly impolite it might be to suggest in some circles on the Internet) we need much higher standards of "political correctness" and a way stronger "call-out culture" in some areas. Most activists are neither saints nor superhumanly rational, of course - but at least in certain matters the general public might need to get out of their way and comply with "cultural engineering" projects, where those genuinely appear to be vital low-hanging fruit obscured by public denial and conformism.
5NancyLebovitz
A social justice style which includes recruiting imperfect allies rather than attacking them.
5NancyLebovitz
I'm pretty sure that call out culture needs some work. It's sort of feasible when there's agreement about what's privileged and what isn't, but I'd respect it more if there were peace between transgendered people and feminists.
7TimS
From a place of general agreement with you, looking for thoughts on how to go forward: Are second-wave feminists more transphobic than a random member of the population? Or do you think second-wave hypocrisy is evidence that the whole second-wave argument is flawed? Because as skeptical as I often am of third-wave as actually practiced, they are particularly good (compared to society as a whole) on transgendered folks, right?
8NancyLebovitz
I don't think the problem is especially about transphobia, I think it's about a harsh style of enforcing whatever changes people from that subculture want to make. They want to believe-- and try to enforce-- that the harshness shouldn't matter, but it does. This may offer some clues about a way forward.
3coffeespoons
IME "call out culture" feminists are very anti-transphobia. Second wave feminists aren't so interested in getting people to check their privilege.
0TimS
If that's true, then I don't understand NancyLebovitz's criticism of "call out culture" or the relevance of her statement to Multiheaded's point.
2coffeespoons
I think that "calling out" types can be extremely harsh and unpleasant - I agree with NancyLebovitz there. However, I don't get what she meant by the problems between feminist and trans people leading her to respect it less.
2NancyLebovitz
I mean that call out culture presents itself as an optimal way for people with different levels of privilege to live with each other, and I think that intractable problem between second wave feminists and transpeople is evidence that there are problems with call out culture, even if .what second wave feminists have been doing is technically before the era of call out culture. There used to be a really good analysis of the problems with call out culture at ozyfrantz.com, but that blog is no longer available.
[-]TimS100

I see. Personally, I'm struggling with the proper application of the Tone Argument. In archetypal form:

A: I don't like social expression X (e.g. scorn at transgendered).
B: You might have a point, but I'm turn off by your tone.
A: I don't think my tone is your true rejection.

But in practice, this can devolve into:
B: Social expression X isn't so bad / might be justified.
A: B deserves to be fired / assaulted / murdered. (e.g. a mindkilled response)
B: Overreacting much?

which is clearly problematic on A's part. Separating the not-true-rejection error by B from the mindkilled problem of A is very important. But the worry is that focusing our attention on that question diverts from the substantive issue of describing what social expressions are problematic and identifying them when they occur (to try to reduce their frequency in the future).

The fact that second wave feminists exercised cisgender privilege to be hurtful to the transgendered seems totally distinction from "Tone Argument" dynamic.

7arundelo
http://web.archive.org/web/20130412201542/http://ozyfrantz.com/2012/12/29/certain-propositions-concerning-callout-culture-part-one/
2NancyLebovitz
Thanks very much. I wanted all three of the major articles, but that was easy enough to find from your link. http://web.archive.org/web/20130412200333/http://ozyfrantz.com/category/callout-culture/
-3aleksiL
I'm pretty sure "trying to eat less" is exactly the wrong thing to do. Calorie restriction just triggers the starvation response which makes things worse in the long run. Change what you eat, not how much.
0Lumifer
Physics is still relevant. The only way to lose weight (outside of surgery) is to spend more energy than you take in. The problem, of course, is that your energy intake and your energy output are functions of each other plus a lot of other things besides (including what's on your mind). I still think that for most people (aka with an uninformative prior) the advice of "Eat less, move more" is a good starting point. Given more data, adjust as needed.
1NancyLebovitz
It's not that unusual for people to regain what they lost plus more after a failed diet.
-1wedrifid
I'm pretty sure "Force feeding yourself as much fat as you can keep down with the aid of anti-emetics, taking glucose intravenously while injecting insulin, estrogen and testosterone and taking a β2 antagonist" is closer to "exactly the wrong thing to do".
-2A1987dM
I've replaced “eat less” with “lose weight” because I don't want to go into this, but see Lumifer's reply.
8Multiheaded
And here is the kind of attitude that, in my eyes, justifies all the anger and backlash against fat-shaming. Oh damn, I feel like I understand the SJW people more and more every time I see crap like this. http://staffanspersonalityblog.wordpress.com/2013/05/30/the-ugly-truth-about-obesity/ The "harsh truth" is that people suffering from obesity need to be protected from such vile treatment somehow, and that need is not recognized at the moment. Society shouldn't just let some entitled well-off jerks with a fetish for authoritarianism influence attitudes and policy that directly affect vulnerable groups. ... Goddamn reactionaries everywhere.
6coffeespoons
I found that quite hard to read. Even if poor impulse control were the sole cause of obesity, there would be no reason to attack the obese so nastily, instead of, for instance, suggesting ways that they might improve their impulse control. I find the way he relishes attacking them incredibly unpleasant. In fact, the internet has quite a lot to say about improving impulse control.
6satt
I reckon there's special pleading going on with the obese. Way more anger & snottiness gets directed at them (at least on the parts of the Internet I see) than at, say, smokers, even though smoking is at least as bad in every relevant way I can think of. (Here're some obvious examples. At an individual level, smoking is associated with shorter life at least as much as obesity. At a global level, smoking kills more and reduces DALYs far more than high BMI. Like obesity, smoking is associated with lower IQ & lower conscientiousness. And so on.)
-5Multiheaded
4NancyLebovitz
I think you're right in general, but I don't think "protected from" is a good way to frame it, as though fat people are the passive recipients of attacks, and some stronger force has to come in to save them. (I'm not sure quite what you meant, or even if you were just angry about a bad situation and used the first phrase that came to mind.) The world would be a much better place if the attacks stopped. I'm not sure what the best strategies are to get people to stop seeing fatness and thinness as moral issues. The long slow grind of bring the subject up again and again with whatever mix of facts and anger seem appropriate seems to be finally getting some traction.
2Multiheaded
Absolutely. I just meant to say that there's a need for intersectionality and solidarity in such struggles, i.e. even people who aren't from marginalized groups that are directly targeted by shit-stains like Mr. Staffan here should still call such shit-stains out on their shit.
0Document
Am I missing a connection between your post and coffespoons' that makes your a response to his?
3Houshalter
http://aeon.co/magazine/health/david-berreby-obesity-era/ (EDIT: Found another article about that here: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/the-animals-are-also-getting-fat.html) The study referenced appears to be from here: http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/278/1712/1626.short Here is one theory on an environmental cause of obesity: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesogen Here is a study that suggests Jet fuel causes obesity. And it's an epigenetic effect: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3587983/ Another interesting link I'd like to save here: http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/08/04/contra-hallquist-on-scientific-rationality/ EDIT: More links. Haven't gone through them thoroughly yet though. Putting this stuff here more for future reference: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/3xyu5r/fat_but_fit_may_be_a_myth_researchers_say_the/cy9b52l https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/3xyu5r/fat_but_fit_may_be_a_myth_researchers_say_the/cy91nu5 Looking for any relevant research or articles on the causes of obesity, or effectiveness of interventions. another link to dump for now: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/4zupkq/new_study_finds_that_the_bmi_of_adopted_children/
2spqr0a1
Adipocyte count is essential to maintaining weight. It is unclear to what extent weight is genetic rather than environmentally set at a later stage in development. I am unable to find whether fat cell count can be changed over this 8 year time scale, though my biochemistry professor was inclined to that hypothesis. Heredity and weight: The long-term weight loss cited in this review used a 1-2 year followup, during which time only <16% of adipocytes could have turned over.
0A1987dM
People such as the author of The Hacker's Diet, who lost a sizeable fraction of his weight as an adult and then stayed there for decades, seem to me to suggest that it can.
0A1987dM
ADBOC. I don't know that seeming like someone who is starving, so long as you aren't actually risking to die from starvation and your micronutrient intake stays adequate, is a bad thing, and indeed the evidence seems to suggest that it isn't. And yeah, slowed metabolism means that if you go straight back to eating as much as you did before starting the diet, you'll gain back the weight. Which is why people are usually advised not to do that. Controlling for height and sex?
5coffeespoons
I think the problem is that maintaining a state on semi-starvation for the rest of one's life is very unpleasant and difficult, and is achieved by very few people: Well, the identical twin parts of the study would automatically control for height and sex :)
2A1987dM
What? I meant, it doesn't surprise me at all that if you pick a bunch of pairs of twins, the correlation between “x's weight” and “x's twin's weight” would be very large -- but if you only picked pairs of male twins between 1.77 m and 1.80 m tall and you got the same result...
0coffeespoons
Link to twin study. A quick scan (I don't have time to read it in full right now, but I will later) suggests they used twins of the same sex, and they also compared BMI not weight, which controls for height.
-1aleksiL
Lesswrongers are surprised by this? It appears figuring out metabolism and nutrition is harder than I thought. I believe that obesity is a problem of metabolic regulation, not overeating, and this result seems to support my belief. Restricting calories to regulate your weight is akin to opening the fridge door to regulate its temperature. It might work for a while but in the long run you'll end up breaking both your fridge and your budget. Far better to figure out how to adjust the termostat. Some of the things that upregulate your fat set point are a history of starvation (that's why calorie restriction is bad in the long run), toxins in your food, sugars (especially fructose - that stuff is toxic) and grains. Wheat is particularly bad - it can serioysly screw with your gut and is addictive to boot.

There's been more recent work suggesting that planets are extremely common. Most recently, evidence for planets in unexpected orbits around red dwarfs have been found. See e.g. here. This is in addition to other work suggesting that even when restricted to sun-like stars, planets are not just common, but planets are frequently in the habitable zone. Source(pdf). It seems at this point that any aspect of the Great Filter that is from planet formation must be declared to be completely negligible. Is this analysis accurate?

5AbdullaRashim
Is there a wiki or website that keeps track of things related to the Great Filter? I guess I'm looking for something that enumerates all the possible major filters, and keeps track of data and arguments pertaining to various aspects of these filters.
0JoshuaZ
I'm not aware of any such thing. It would be nice to have. There was an earlier Boston meetup a few years ago where a few of us tried to brainstorm future filters but we didn't really get anything that wasn't already known (I think jimrandomh mentioned that there's been similar attempts at other meetups and the like). The set of proposed filters in the past though is large. I've seen almost every major step in the evolution of life being labeled as a filter, and there's sometimes reference class tennis issues with them, especially when connected to developments that aren't as obviously necessary for intelligent life.
0NancyLebovitz
I have a notion that the proportion of sociopaths is a filter as the tech level goes up-- spam is a problem, though more of a dead-weight loss than a disaster. If we get to the point of home build-a-virus kits, it might be a civilization-stopper. Was this on the list?
1JoshuaZ
I think that was included, the point that as tech goes up many heavily devastating weapons become substantially easier for individuals to make/possess was discussed. We're also already seeing that now. The amount of damage a single person with a gun could do has gone up over time, and we now have 3D printed guns. So do it yourself viruses looks like part of a general trend.
3Shmi
I am not an astrophysicist, so not an authoritative voice here, but yes, almost every star is likely to contain a bunch of planets, some probably in an inhabitable zone. Even our close neighbors, the three Centauri stars and Vega have planets around them, or at least an asteroid belt hinting at planets. So, at least a couple of terms in the Drake equation are very close to unity.
2Eliezer Yudkowsky
I second this question. Are we now completely certain of this rarity?

To whoever fixed it so that we can see the parents of comments when looking at a user's comments, major props to you for being awesome.

I dislike the change, as it's harder to get an impression about a new user based on their user page now, the comments by other users are getting in the way, and it's not possible to tune them out. Also, the change has broken user RSS feeds.

2Viliam_Bur
Would it be a good solution to change the color of the parent comments to gray, so they would be easier to ignore?

Your props go to Lucas Sloan. Hail Lucas!

I'm a little torn on that one-- on one hand it adds convenience most of the time, but it makes it less convenient to check on recent karma. The latter is something I feel like doing now and then, but it's possible I'm saner if it isn't convenient.

3sixes_and_sevens
It was never an ideal way to check on recent karma, though it was better than nothing. I'd quite like something similar to Stack Overflow's Reputation view.
3TheOtherDave
Yeah, this has been requested before. I am particularly aware of it right now because I've been watching my 30-days karma drop slowly and steadily for the last couple of days, but I have no idea what in particular people want less of. That said, I suspect that's just because I'm getting individual downvotes across a wide set of comments in the 0+/-2 range, and changing the way that information is displayed won't really help me answer that question any better than the current system does.
8TimS
30-day karma falling is probably old posts aging out. Unless your total karma is also falling?
0TheOtherDave
Not sure about my total. I notice the 30-day shifts when I reload, but not the total changes (I assume that's because the relative changes are larger, but it might be because it's lower, or lighter-colored, or for some other reason; I'm not sure.) My reply to wedrifid is relevant here as well.
0drethelin
have you been making less comments? My 30 day karma depends far more on the amount of commenting I've been doing than on anything else.
0wedrifid
Less not doing whatever you did exactly 30 days ago! (You could look this up if interested. If there in fact aren't any comments falling off the 30 day list then you may have cause for concern. Or, well, cause for mild interest anyway.)
0TheOtherDave
I believe the timing-based updates only happen once a day, so when I see drops over the course of a day I assume the cause is downvotes, rather than change of reading frame. Admittedly, I'm not sure why I believe that, now that I think of it. Also, it's really more "less not doing whatever I did over a 30-day period ending yesterday", not "less not doing whatever I did exactly 30 days ago," right? Which is harder to look up. Though you're right, regardless, that if I were sufficiently interested I could extract this information. And yeah, "concern" is pushing it, but I do try to use downvotes (as distinct from fewer-upvotes-than-I-received-earlier) as information about what I'm doing that the community wants less of. "Mild interest" is about right.
2wedrifid
No. The rest of the period hasn't changed. Any period related changes to the 30 day karma are the result of the stuff 30 days ago falling out of scope. The remainder influences the absolute level of 30dk but not the fluctuations.
2TheOtherDave
(nods) You're right, of course. I sit corrected.
8A1987dM
I second Nancy and Vladimir in disliking it. Maybe it could be made a user preference, the way it is for the Recent Comments page.
2NancyLebovitz
I would definitely like to see it as a user preference. Also, how do people feel about the relatively subtle color change for new comments which has replaced the bright green edge?
9A1987dM
I liked the green edge more.
2NancyLebovitz
I'm finding the new version usable-- the green edge might allow for faster scanning, but the new version isn't bad with a little practice. On the other hand, if there are multiple new comments in a thread, I find that I miss the alternating white/pale blue way of distinguishing comments. It would be nice to have two pastels instead of one.
4Viliam_Bur
The visual difference between a new comment and an old comment should be greater than the difference between two old comments. How about using two pastel colors for the old comments... and using the white background for the new comments? It would also be nice to have e.g. a small green "NEW" text in the corner of new comments, so I can quickly find a few new comments in a long discussion by using the "Find Next" functionality of my browser. (Because I don't have a functionality to search a comment based on its background color.)
6TheOtherDave
If you're going to do this at all, it should be a more-likely-unique string (eg "!new!" rather than "NEW").
2ModusPonies
I much prefer the new version. It's far easier to spot new comments.

I just found out that there exists an earlier term for semantic stopsigns: a thought-terminating cliché.

A thought-terminating cliché is a commonly used phrase, sometimes passing as folk wisdom, used to quell cognitive dissonance. Though the phrase in and of itself may be valid in certain contexts, its application as a means of dismissing dissent or justifying fallacious logic is what makes it thought-terminating.

The term was popularized by Robert Jay Lifton in his 1956 book Thought Reform and the Psychology of Totalism. Lifton said, “The language of the totalist environment is characterized by the thought-terminating cliché. The most far-reaching and complex of human problems are compressed into brief, highly reductive, definitive-sounding phrases, easily memorized and easily expressed. These become the start and finish of any ideological analysis.”

Has anyone written a worthwhile utilitarian argument against transhumanism? I'm interested in criticism, but most of it is infested with metaphysical and metaethical claims I can't countenance.

9DanArmak
What proposition are you looking for an argument against? Transhumanism can mean a lot of things: the transcending of various heretofore human limits, conditions, or behaviors - which are many and different from one another. And for those things, you might refer to the proposition that they are possible, or likely, or inevitable; (un)desirable or neutral; ethically (in)permissible or obligatory; and so on.
4orthonormal
I'm looking for utilitarian arguments against the desirability of changing human nature by direct engineering. Basically, I'm wondering if there's any utilitarian case for the "it's fundamentally wrong to play God" position in bioethics. (I'm being vague in order to maximize my chance of encountering something.)
2Kaj_Sotala
A while back, I made the argument that the ability to remove fundamental human limits will eventually lead to the loss of everything we value.
4orthonormal
How long have you been this pessimistic about the erasure of human value?
4Kaj_Sotala
Not sure. I've been pessimistic about the Singularity for several years, but the general argument for human value being doomed-with-a-very-high-probability only really clicked sometime late last year.
0Paul Crowley
This seems to assume a Hansonesque competitive future, rather than an FAI singleton, is that right?
0Kaj_Sotala
Pretty much.
0DanArmak
Please be more specific and define "changes to human nature". We already make many deliberate changes to people. We raise them in a culture, educate them, train them, fit them into jobs and social roles, make social norms and expectations into second nature for most people, make them strongly believe many things without evidence, indoctrinate them into cults and religions and causes, make them do almost anything we like. We also make medical interventions that change human nature, which is to die of diseases easily treated today. We restore sight to the myopic and hard of hearing, and lately even to the blind and deaf. We even transplant complex organs. We have changed the experience of human life out of all recognition with the ancestral state, and we have grown used to it. Where does the line between human and transhuman lie? We can talk about any specific proposed change, and some will be bad and some will be good. But any argument that says all changes are inherently bad might also say that all the changes that already occurred have been bad as well.
[-]Oriane150

I was an intern at MIRI recently and I would like to start a new LW meetup in my city but as I am still new on LW, I do not have enough karma points. Could you please upvote this comment so that I can get enough karma to post about a meetup? lukeprog suggested I do this. I only need 2 points to post in the discussion part. Thanks to you all

6lukeprog
Confirmed.

Thanks for bringing back the bright-colored edges for new comments.

The additional thing I'd like to see along those lines is bright color for "continue this thread" and "expand comments" if they include new comments. I'd also like to see it for "comment score below threshold", but I can understand if that isn't included for social engineering reasons.

Risks of vegetarianism and veganism

Personal account of physical and emotional problems encountered by the author which were reversed when he went back to eating animal products. Much discussion of vitamins and dietary fats, not to mention genetic variation. Leaves the possibility open that some people thrive on a vegetarian diet, and possibly on a vegan diet.

I just realized that willingness to update seems very cultish from outside. Literally.

I mean -- if someone joins a cult, what is the most obvious thing that happens to them? They update heavily; towards the group teachings. This is how you can tell that something wrong is happening.

We try to update on reasonable evidence. For example we would update on a scientific article more than on a random website. However, from outside is seems similar to willingness to update on your favorite (in-group) sources, and unwillingness to update on other (out-group) sources. Just like a Jehovah Witness would update on the Watch Tower, but would remain skeptical towards Mormon literature. As if the science itself is your cult... except that it's not really the science as we know it, because most scientist behave outside the laboratory just like everyone else; and you are trying to do something else.

Okay, I guess this is nothing new for a LW reader. I just realized now, on the emotional level, how willingness to update, considered a virtue on LW, may look horrifying to an average person. And how willingness to update on trustworthy evidence more than on untrustworthy evidence, probably seems like hypocrisy, like a rationalization for preferring your in-group ideas to out-group ideas.

8FiftyTwo
So does that make stubbornness a kind of epistemic self defence?
2Viliam_Bur
Almost surely, yes. If other people keep telling you crazy things, not updating is a smart choice. Not the smartest one, but it is a simple strategy that anyone can use, cheaply (because we can't always afford verification).
0TimS
Perhaps, but moving the local optimum from Politics-is-the-Mindkiller towards a higher sanity line seems to require dropping this defensive mechanism (on the societal level, at least).
2Viliam_Bur
First one must be able to tell the difference between reliable and unreliable sources of information. Only then it is safe to drop the defensive mechanism. Just dropping the defensive mechanism could lead to whatever... for example massive religious zealotry. Or, more probably, some kind of political zealotry. Unfortunately, one cannot simple revert stupidity. If a creationist refused to update to evolution, that's bad. But if they update to scientology, that's even worse. So before people start updating in masses, they better understand the difference.
5NancyLebovitz
For what it's worth, the complaints I've heard about LW center around arrogance, not excessive compliance.
2drethelin
you could restate the arrogance as an expectation that others update when you say things
2FiftyTwo
Likewise, especially of people talking about fields they are not experts in.
0TimS
I agree that this is a common failure mode locally on LW, but even if this community did not have this problem, Villiam_Bur's point would still have a lot of explanatory power on why raising-the-sanity-line methods are resisted by society at large.
5Jack
On the other hand, once you're in one it's the not-updating that gives it away.
1[anonymous]
I worry that this is a case of finding a 'secret virtue' in one's vices: I think we're often tempted to pick some outstandingly bad feature of ourselves or an organization we belong to and explain it as the necessary consequence of a necessary and good feature. My reason for thinking that this is going on here is that another explanation seems much more plausible. For one thing, you'd think the effect of seeing someone heavily update would depend on knowing them before and after. But how many people who think of LW this way think so because they knew someone before and after they became swayed by LW's ideas? With Nancy, I think that the PR problem LW has isn't the impression people have that LWers converts of a certain kind. Rather, I think what negative impression there is is the result of an extremely fixable problem of presentation: some of the most prominent and popular ways of expressing core LW ideas come in the form of 1) 'litanies', or pseudo-asian mysticism. These are good ideas being given a completely unnecessary and, for many, off-putting gilding. No one here takes the religious overtone seriously, but outsiders don't know that. 2) they come in the form of explicit expressions of contempt for outsiders, such as 'raising the sanity waterline', etc.
7Viliam_Bur
I admit that I honestly do consider many people insane; and I always did. Even the smarter ones seem paralyzed by some harmful memes. I mean, people argue about words that have no connection with reality, while in other parts of the world children are dying from hunger. Hoaxes of every kind circulate by e-mail, and it's hard to find someone I know personally who didn't send me them repeatedly (after being repeatedly explained that it was a hoax, and given a pointer to some sites collecting hoaxes). Smart people start speaking in slogans, when difficult problems need to be solved, and seem unable to understand where is the problem with this kind of communication. People doing bullshit that obviously doesn't and can't work, and insisting that you have to do it harder and spend more money, instead of just trying something else for a while and observing what happens. So much stupidity, so much waste. -- And the few people who know better, or at least are able to know better, are often afraid to admit it even to themselves, because the idea that we live in insane society is scary. So even they don't resist the madness; at best they don't join it, but they pretend they don't see it. This is how I saw the world decades before I found LW. And yes, it is a bad PR. It is impolite towards the insane people, who may feel offended, and then try to punish us. But even worse, it is a bad strategy towards the sane people, who are not yet emotionally ready to admit that the rest of the world is not sane. Because it goes against our tribal instincts. We must agree with the tribe, whether it is right or wrong; especially when it is wrong. If you are able to resist this pressure, it's probably not caused by higher rationality, but by lower social skills. So how exactly should we communicate the inconvenient truths. Because we are trying to communicate truthfully, aren't we? Should we post the information openly, and have a bad PR? Should we have a secret forum for forbidden thoughts,
4[anonymous]
I don't think you do, I think you consider most people to be (in some sense rightly) wrong or ignorant. Just the fact that you hold people to some standard (which you must do, if you say that they fail) means you don't think of them as insane. If you've ever known someone with depression or who is bi-polar disorder, you know that you can't tell them t snap out of it, or learn this or that, or just think it through. Even calling people insane, as an expression of contempt, is a way of holding them to a standard. But we don't hold actually insane people to standards, and we don't (unless we're jerks) hold them in contempt. You don't communicate the inconvenient truth to the insane. You don't disagree or agree with the insane. The wrong, the ignorant, the evil, yes. But not the insane. No one here (and I mean no one) actually thinks the world is full of insane people. That's a bit of metaphor and hyperbole. If anyone seriously thought that, their behavior would be so radically strange (think 'I am Legend' or something), you'd probably find them locked up somewhere. The claim that everyone else is insane doesn't sound dangerous, it sounds resentful. Dangerous is not a problem. I don't think we need to implement any of your ideas, because the issue is purely one of rhetoric. None of the ideas themselves are a problem, because there's no problem with saying everyone else is wrong so long as you have either 1) results, or 2) good, persuasive, arguments. And if all you've got is (2), tone matters, because you can only persuade people who listen to you. There's no reason at all to hide anything, or lie, or pretend or anything like that.
1Viliam_Bur
Speaking about typical indviduals, ignorant is a good word, insane is not. As you say, it makes sense trying to explain things to an ignorant person, not to an insane person. Individuals can be explained things with some degree of success. I agree with you on this. The difference becomes less clear when dealing with groups of people, societies. Explaining things to a group of people, that is more often (as an anthropomorphism) like dealing with an insane person. Literally, the kind of person that hears you and understands your words, but then also hears "voices in their head" telling them it's bad to think that way, that they should keep doing the stupid stuff they were doing regardless of the problems it brought them, etc. Except that these "voices" are the other people. -- But this probably just proves that societies are not individuals. Yeah, having results would be good. The Friendly AI would be the best, but until then, we need some other kind of results. So, an interesting task would be to make a list of results of the LW community that would impress outsiders. Put that into a flyer, and we have a nice PR tool.
0[anonymous]
That's fair enough. I'd stay away from groups of people. Back in the day, they used to write without vowels, so that you could only really read something if you were either exceptionally literate or were being told what it said by a teacher. I say never communicate with more than a handful of people at once, but I suppose that's not possible a lot of the time.
0Error
Perhaps it would be less confusing to treat a society as if it were a single organism, of which the people within it are analogous to cells rather than agents with minds of their own. I'm not sure how far such an approach would get but it might be interesting. CFAR might be able to demonstrate such after a few more years of their workshops. I'm not sure how they're measuring results, but I would be surprised if they were not doing so.
1Viliam_Bur
CFAR planned to do some statistics about how the minicamp attendees' lives have changed after a year, using a control group of people who applied to minicamps but were not admitted. Not perfect, but pretty good. And the year from the first minicamps is approximately now (for me it will be in one month). But the samples are very small. With regards to PR, I am not sure if this will work. I mean, even if the results are good, only the people who care about statistical results will be impressed by them. It's a circular problem: you need to already have some rationality to be able to be impressed by rational arguments. -- Because you may also say: yeah, those guys are trying so hard, and I will just pray or think positively and the same results will come to me, too. And if they don't, that just means I have to pray or think positively more. Or even: statistics doesn't prove anything, I feel it in my heart that rationality is cold and can't make anyone happy.
0NancyLebovitz
I think that people who don't care about statistics are still likely to be impressed by vivid stories, not that I have any numbers to prove this.
1Viliam_Bur
I agree. But optimizing for good storytelling is different from optimizing for good science. A good scientific result would be like: "minicamp attendees are 12% more efficient in their lives, plus or minus 3.5%". A good story would be "this awesome thing happened to an minicamp attendee" (ignoring the fact that equivalent thing happened to a person in the control group). Maybe the best would be to publish both, and let readers pick their favourite part.
0NancyLebovitz
I'm sure they'll be publishing both stories and statistics.
1NancyLebovitz
One more possibility: spin off instrumental rationality. Develop gradual introductions on how to think more clearly to improve your life.

How do other people use their whiteboards?

After having my old 90 x 60 whiteboard stashed down the side of my bed since I moved in, nearly two years ago, I finally got around to mounting it a couple of weeks ago. I am amazed at how well it compliments the various productivity infrastructure I've built up in the interim, to the point where I'm considering getting a second 120 x 90 whiteboard and mounting them next to each other to form an enormous FrankenBoard.

A couple of whiteboard practices I've taken to:

  • Repeated derivation of maths content I'm having trouble remembering. If there's a proof or process I'm having trouble getting to stick, I'll go through it on the board at spaced intervals. There seems to be a kinaesthetic aspect to using the whiteboard that I don't have with pen and paper, so even if my brain is struggling to to remember what comes next, my fingers will probably have a good idea.

  • Unlike my other to-do list mechanisms, if I have a list item with a check box on the whiteboard, and I complete the item, I can immediately draw in a "stretch goal" check box on the same line. This turns into an enormous array of multicoloured check-boxes over time, which is both gratifying to look at and helpful when deciding what to work on next.

4tgb
What are the advantages over pencil-and-paper? I can think of a couple, but would like to hear what a more frequent user says.

Firstly, a hypothesis: I am highly visual and like working with my hands. This may contribute considerably to any unusual benefit I get out of whiteboards.

So, advantages:

  • A whiteboard is mounted on the wall, and visible all of the time. I'm going to be reminded of what's written on it more frequently than if it's on a piece of paper or in a notebook. This is advantageous both for reminder/to-do items and for material I'm trying to learn or think about.

  • Instant erasure of errors. Smoosh and it's gone. I find pencil erasers cumbersome and slow, and generally dislike pencil as a writing medium, so on paper my corrected errors become a mess of scribbled obliteration.

  • Being able to work with it like an artistic medium. If I'm working with graphs (either in the sense of plotted functions or the edge-and-node variety), I can edit it on the fly without having to resort to messy scribbles or obliterating it and starting again.

  • Not accumulating large piles of paper workings of varying (mostly very low) importance. I already have an unavoidably large amount of paper in my life, and reducing the overhead of processing it all is valuable.

The running themes here seem to be "I generate a lot of noisy clutter when I work, both physically and abstractly, and a whiteboard means I generate less".

2kalium
The physically larger my to-do list is, the more satisfying it feels to cross something off it. Erasing also works much better on whiteboard than with pencil and paper.
1J_Taylor
Aid in demonstrating things to others, social aesthetic value as a decoration, and personal aesthetic value. Also, erasing is way faster.
-1drethelin
being large and in your field of view. Pieces of paper, even explicitly put places to remind you get lost under things or get shuffled away or are easy to ignore.
2Emily
Sounds like a good system! What's a "stretch goal", if you don't mind sharing?
3sixes_and_sevens
It's a term made popular by Kickstarter. If you achieve your initial goal and have resource left over, your "stretch goal" is what you do with the extra.
2Dorikka
I will sometimes write things on a chalkboard that I'm trying to understand. I only have access to chalkboards, but I think that i would prefer them regardless -- the chalk feels more substantial.
2TheOtherDave
I no longer use whiteboards if I can help it; while I trained back my fine motor control after my stroke sufficiently well to perform most other related activities, writing legibly on a vertical surface in front of me is not something I specifically trained back and doesn't seem to have "come for free" with other trained skills. When I used them, I mostly used them for collaborative thinking about (a) to-do lists and (b) system engineering (e.g., what nodes in the system perform/receive what actions; how do those actions combine to form end-to-end flows). I far prefer other tools, including pencil and paper, for non-collaborative tasks along those lines. And these days I mostly work on geographically distributed teams, so even collaborative work generally requires other tools anyway.
0A1987dM
I pretty much only use whiteboards to communicate to others. For private purposes, I use pencil and paper or a text file in my Dropbox folder.
2arundelo
Do you know of a way to edit a text file in Dropbox from one's iPhone?
3Ben Pace
Evernote is good for that purpose.
2A1987dM
No. I use Android, and the Dropbox app here has a built-in text editor as well as allowing you to use a different one.

So I'm interested in taking up meditation, but I don't know how/where to start. Is there a practical guide for beginners somewhere that you would recommend?

8[anonymous]
Mindfulness in Plain English is a good introduction to (one kind of) meditation practice. It seems like most interested people end up practicing concentration or insight meditation by default (as indeed you will, if you read and follow the book). I would also recommend eventually looking into loving-kindness meditation. I've been trying it for a couple of weeks and I think it might be much more effective for someone who just wants a tool to improve quality of life (rather than wanting to be enlightened or something).
4TheOtherDave
Loving-kindness meditation was one of the most easily accessible effective techniques for subverting intrusive anxiety I experimented with during my recovery. (There were more effective techniques, but I couldn't always do them reliably.)
4Qiaochu_Yuan
Have you seen the previous LW posts on the subject?
0Lightwave
I looked through some of them, there's a lot of theory and discussions, but I'm rather interested just in a basic step-by-step guide on what to do basically.

From Meditation, insight, and rationality (Part 2 of 3):

Basic method: Sit down in a place where there are few distractions, and pick an object to focus one's attention on. The most popular objects are the feeling of breath at the tip of the nostrils / upper lip, and the motion of the abdomen as one breathes in and out. (In this description I'll assume you're using the latter.) Begin by trying to clearly perceive the feeling of the abdomen expanding and contracting; when it expands and you perceive it clearly, attach the label 'in' to that perception, and when it contracts and you perceive that clearly, attach the label 'out' to that perception. As your attention becomes more stable and precise, you can divide the experience up into as many parts as you can discern: for example, 'in'->'holding'->'out'->'holding', or further, 'in-beginning'->'in-slowing'->'holding'->'out-beginning'->'out-slowing'->'holding'. The label you use is not important so long as it's simple and makes sense to you. What is important is attending to the perception, and the best way to do this is by attaching a label to the perception every time you notice it clearly. Focus on perceivin

... (read more)
0Risto_Saarelma
I found Daniel Ingram's Mastering the Core Teachings of the Buddha a fun read.
0tofu257
I tried zazen for a few months: I like it and decided to start it again just this week. Here is straightfoward advice on what to do: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsFlrdXVFgo if you don't want to watch the long youtube video read the following then skip to 8:20 where he explains how to think/what to do with your mind: * how to sit your body: cross legged or lotus - but lotus requires flexibility and isn't necessary. straight spine, back and neck. rest your hands to make a ring shape. face a wall and shut your eyes. rock side to side a little then stop straight. * how to think: first few times - it's initially very difficult to let your mind free itself of thoughts/chatter so a way to practice this is counting down slowly from 10, restarting if you stray from counting onto thinking about something else.
[-]TimS110

More grist for the hypothetical Journal of Negative Results

Scientist wants to publish replication failure. Nature won't accept the article (even as a letter). So scientist retracts previous letter written in support of the non-replicated study.

5Kaj_Sotala
Hypothetical?
0BerryPick6
Someone needs to redo that website before my eyes explode.
1Mestroyer
Just use your browser's zoom.

While researching a forthcoming MIRI blog post, I came across the University of York's Safety Critical Mailing List, which hosted an interesting discussion on the use of AI in safety-critical applications in 2000. The first post in the thread, from Ken Firth, reads:

...several of [Vega's] clients seek to use varying degrees of machine intelligence - from KBS to neural nets - and have come for advice on how to implement them in safety related systems... So far we have usually resorted to the stock answer "you don't — at least not for safety critical f

... (read more)
0lukeprog
That report also offers a handy case study in the challenges of designing intelligent control systems that operate "correctly" in the complexities of the real world:

[I made a request for job finding suggestions. I didn't really want to leave details lying around indefinitely, to be honest, so, after a week, I edited it to this.]

2ModusPonies
For job searching, focus less on sending out applications and more on asking [professors | friends | friends of friends | mentors | parents | parents' friends] if they know of anyone who's hiring for [relevant field]. When they say no, ask if they know anyone else you should talk to. To generalize from one example, every job I've ever worked has come from some sort of connection. I found my current position through my mom's dance instructor's husband. For figuring out what to do with your long-term future, there's not much I can say without knowing your goals, but http://80000hours.org/ might or might not be relevant. If so, they're willing to advise you one-on-one.

I would like to get better at telling stories in conversations. Usually when I tell a story, it's very fact-based and I can tell that it's pretty boring, even if it wasn't for me. Are there any tips/tricks/heuristics I can implement that can transform a plain fact-based story into something more exciting?

  • It's okay to lie a little bit. If you're telling the story primarily to entertain, people won't mind if you rearrange the order of events or leave out the boring bits.

  • Open with a hook. My style is to open with a deadpan delivery of the "punchline" without any context, e.g. "Quit my job today." This cultivates curiosity.

  • Keep the end in mind. I find that this avoids wandering. It helps if you've anchored the story by "spoiling" the punch line. We all have that friend who tells rambling stories that don't seem to have a point. That said -

  • Don't bogart the conversation. If you're interrupted, indulge the interruption, and bring the conversation back to your story if you can do so gracefully. It's easy to get fixated on your story, and to become irritated because everybody won't shut up. People detect this and it makes you look like an ass. Sometimes it works to get mock-irritated - "I was telling a story, dammit!" - if doing so feels right. Don't force it.

  • Don't get bogged down in quoting interactions verbatim. Nobody really cares what she said or what you said in what order.

7Viliam_Bur
Don't care about getting all the details correctly. (Your first and last points.) I know a person whose storytelling is painful to listen, because sooner or later they run into some irrelevant detail they can't remember precisely, and then spend literally minutes trying to get that irrelevant detail right, despite the audience screaming at them that the detail is irrelevant and the story is already too long, so they should quickly move to the point. Perhaps this could be another good advice: Start with short stories. Progress to longer ones only when you are good with the short ones.

Watch stand-up comedy. There's lots of it on YouTube.

6moridinamael
Just listening to and imitating the cadence of how professional comics speak is enough to boost one's funniness by 2.3 Hickses.
7Nisan
A good piece of advice lukeprog gave me is to structure your story around an emotional arc. E.g. a story about an awesome show you went to is also a story about what you felt before, during, and after the show. A story about the life-cycle of a psychoactive parasite is also a story about a conflict between the clever parasite and the tragic host; or a story about your feelings of fascination and horror when you first learned about the parasite.
2wadavis
Join a pen and paper RPG group, it is the old trick of if you want to be better at something, spend a lot of time doing it. Easy story telling practice sessions every week.

Since I'm used to hearing Dutch Book arguments as the primary way of defending expected utility maximization, I was intrigued to read this passage (from here):

The Dutch book argument concerns the long-term consistency of accepting bets. If probabilities are assigned to bets in a way that goes against the principles of CP [Classical Probability] theory, then this guarantees a net loss (or gain) across time. In other words, probabilistic assignment inconsistent with CP theory leads to unfair bets (de Finetti et al. 1993). [...]

These justifications are not

... (read more)
4Qiaochu_Yuan
The von Neumann-Morgenstern theorem isn't a Dutch book argument, and the primary purpose of Dutch book arguments is to defend classical probability, not expected utility maximization. von Neumann-Morgenstern also assumes classical probability. Jaynes uses Cox's theorem to defend classical probability rather than a Dutch book argument (he says something like using gambling to defend probability is uncouth). I don't really understand what issue the first reference you cite claims exists. It doesn't seem to be what the second reference you cite is claiming.
0Kaj_Sotala
I'm not really sure whether the parts of Wakker that I quoted are the parts that the first cite is referring, either - it could be that the first cite is talking about something completely different. That was the only part in Wakker that I could find that seemed possibly relevant, but then my search was extremely cursory, since I don't really have the time to read through a 500-page book with dense technical material.
2Eliezer Yudkowsky
Wouldn't this trivially go away by redenominating outcomes in utilons instead of dollars with diminishing marginal returns?
0[anonymous]
Then the bookie doesn't always profit from your loss. I don't know if that matters to you, though.
0Douglas_Knight
You can elicit probabilities from risk averse agents by taking the limit of arbitrarily small bets. There is an analogy with electro-magnetism, where people who want to give a positivist account of the electro-magnetic field say that it is defined by its effect on charged particles; but since the charges affect the field, one talks of an infinitesimal "test charge."

All students including liberal arts students at Singapore's new Yale-NUS College will take a new course in Quantitative Reasoning which John Baez had a hand in designing.

Baez writes that it will cover topics like this:

  • innumeracy, use of numbers in the media.
  • visualizing quantitative data.
  • cognitive biases, operationalization.
  • qualitative heuristics, cognitive biases, formal logic and mathematical proof.
  • formal logic, mathematical proofs.
  • probability, conditional probability (Bayes’ rule), gambling and odds.
  • decision trees, expected utility, optimal decis
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http://www.interfluidity.com/v2/4435.html

Just after the PRISM scandal broke, Tyler Cowen offered a wonderful, wonderful tweet:

I’d heard about this for years, from “nuts,” and always assumed it was true.

There is a model of social knowledge embedded in this tweet. It implies a set of things that one believes to be true, a set of things one can admit to believing without being a “nut”, and an inconsistency between the two. Why the divergence? Oughtn’t it be true that people of integrity should simply own up to what they believe? Can a “marketplace of id

... (read more)
1AbdullaRashim
Related to this, there are a couple of professional philosophers around that are starting to take conspiracy theories seriously. Not just in the manner of critically analysing them, but also in the sense of how to actually make inferences about the existence of a conspiracy, how to contrast official theories and conspiracy theories, and how to reason with disinformation present. One of these individuals is Matthew Dentith, who did his PhD In defence of conspiracy theories on these topics (and is in the process of writing a full book on the matter). The other is David Coady.

I'm running an Ideological Turing Test at my blog, and I'm looking for players. This year's theme is sex and death, so the questions are about polyamory and euthanasia.

You can read the rules and sign up at the link, but, essentially, you answer the questions twice: once honestly, and the second time as you think an atheist or Christian (whichever you're not) plausibly would. Then we read through the true and faux atheist answers and try to spot the fakes and see what assumptions players and judges made.

Anybody with tips for beginning an evaluation for the purpose of choosing between future career and academic choices? As far as I can tell, my values are as commonly held as the next fellow:

  • Felt Purpose - A frequent occur