[EDIT - While I still support the general premise argued for in this post, the examples provided were fairly terrible. I won't delete this post because the comments contain some interesting and valuable discussions, but please bear in mind that this is not even close to the most convincing argument for my point.]
A great deal of the theory involved in improving computer and network security involves the definition and creation of "trusted systems", pieces of hardware or software that can be relied upon because the input they receive is entirely under the control of the user. (In some cases, this may instead be the system administrator, manufacturer, programmer, or any other single entity with an interest in the system.) The only way to protect a system from being compromised by untrusted input is to ensure that no possible input can cause harm, which requires either a robust filtering system or strict limits on what kinds of input are accepted: a blacklist or a whitelist, roughly.
One of the downsides of having a brain designed by a blind idiot is that said idiot hasn’t done a terribly good job with limiting input or anything resembling “robust filtering”. Hence that whole bias thing. A consequence of this is that your brain is not a trusted system, which itself has consequences that go much, much deeper than a bunch of misapplied heuristics. (And those are bad enough on their own!)
In discussions of the AI-Box Experiment I’ve seen, there has been plenty of outrage, dismay, and incredulity directed towards the underlying claim: that a sufficiently intelligent being can hack a human via a text-only channel. But whether or not this is the case (and it seems to be likely), the vulnerability is trivial in the face of a machine that is completely integrated with your consciousness and can manipulate it, at will, towards its own ends and without your awareness.
Your brain cannot be trusted. It is not safe. You must be careful with what you put into it, because it  will decide the output, not you. We have been warned, here on Less Wrong, that there is dangerous knowledge; Eliezer has told us that knowing about biases can cause us harm. Nick Bostrom has written a paper describing dozens of ways in which information can hurt us, but he missed (at least) one.
The acquisition of some thoughts, discoveries, and pieces of evidence can lower our expected outcomes, even when they are true. This can be accounted for; we can debias. But some thoughts and discoveries and pieces of evidence can be used by our underhanded, untrustworthy brains to change our utility functions, a fate that is undesirable for the same reason that being forced to take a murder pill is undesirable.
(I am making a distinction here between the parts of your brain that you have access to and can introspect about, which for lack of better terms I call “you” or “your consciousness”, and the vast majority of your brain, to which you have no such access or awareness, which I call “your brain.” This is an emotional manipulation, which you are now explicitly aware of. Does that negate its effect? Can it?)

A few examples (in approximately increasing order of controversy):

Identity PoliticsPaul Graham and Kaj Sotala have covered this ground, so I will not rehash their arguments. I will only add that, in the absence of a stronger aspect of your identity, truly identifying as something new is an irreversible operation. It might be overwritten again in time, but your brain will not permit an undo.
Power Corrupts: History is littered with examples of idealists seizing power only to find themselves betraying the values they once held dear. No human who values anything more than power itself should seek it; your brain will betray you. There has not yet been a truly benevolent dictator and it would be delusional at best to believe that you will be the first. You are not a mutant. (EDIT: Michael Vassar has pointed out that there have been benevolent dictators by any reasonable definition of the word.)
Opening the Door to Bigotry: I place a high value on not discriminating against sentient beings on the basis of artifacts of the birth lottery. I’ve also observed that people who come to believe that there are significant differences between the sexes/races/whatevers on average begin to discriminate against all individuals of the disadvantaged sex/race/whatever, even when they were only persuaded by scientific results they believed to be accurate and were reluctant to accept that conclusion. I have watched this happen to smart people more than once. Furthermore, I have never met (or read the writings of) any person who believed in fundamental differences between the whatevers and who was not also to some degree a bigot.
One specific and relatively common version of this are people who believe that women have a lower standard deviation on measures of IQ than men. This belief is not incompatible with believing that any particular woman might be astonishingly intelligent, but these people all seem to have a great deal of trouble applying the latter to any particular woman. There may be exceptions, but I haven’t met them. Based on all the evidence I have, I’ve made a conscious decision to avoid seeking out information on sex differences in intelligence and other, similar kinds of research. I might be able to resist my brain’s attempts to change what I value, but I’m not willing to take that risk; not yet, not with the brain I have right now.
If you know of other ways in which a person’s brain might stealthily alter their utility function, please describe them in the comments.

If you proceed anyway...

If the big red button labelled “DO NOT TOUCH!” is still irresistible, if your desire to know demands you endure any danger and accept any consequences, then you should still think really, really hard before continuing. But I’m quite confident that a sizable chunk of the Less Wrong crowd will not be deterred, and so I have a final few pieces of advice.
  • Identify knowledge that may be dangerous. Forewarned is forearmed.
  • Try to cut dangerous knowledge out of your decision network. Don’t let it influence other beliefs or your actions without your conscious awareness. You can’t succeed completely at this, but it might help.
  • Deliberately lower dangerous priors, by acknowledging the possibility that your brain is contaminating your reasoning and then overcompensating, because you know that you’re still too overconfident.
  • Spend a disproportionate amount of time seeking contradictory evidence. If believing something could have a great cost to your values, make a commensurately great effort to be right.
  • Just don’t do it. It’s not worth it. And if I found out, I’d have to figure out where you live, track you down, and kill you.
Just kidding! That would be impossibly ridiculous.
Some Thoughts Are Too Dangerous For Brains to Think
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I upvoted this post because it's a fascinating topic. But I think a trip down memory lane might be in order. This 'dangerous knowledge' idea isn't new, and examples of what was once considered dangerous knowledge should leap into the minds of anybody familiar with the Coles Notes of the history of science and philosophy (Galileo anyone?). Most dangerous knowledge seems to turn out not to be (kids know about contraception, and lo, the sky has not fallen).

I share your distrust of the compromised hardware we run on, and blindly collecting facts is a bad idea. But I'm not so sure introducing a big intentional meta-bias is a great idea. If I get myopia, my vision is not improved by tearing my eyes out.

On reflection, I think I have an obligation to stick my neck out and address some issue of potential dangerous knowledge that really matters, rather than the triviality (to us anyway) of heliocentrism.

Suppose (worst case) that race IQ differences are real, and not explained by the Flynn effect or anything like that. I think it's beyond dispute that that would be a big boost for the racists (at least short-term), but would it be an insuperable obstacle for those of us who think ontological differences don't translate smoothly into differences in ethical worth?

The question of sex makes me fairly optimistic. Men and women are definitely distinct psychologically. And yet, as this fact has become more and more clear, I do not think sexual equality has declined. Probably the opposite - a softening of attitudes on all sides. So maybe people would actually come to grips with race IQ differences, assuming they exist.

More importantly, withholding that knowledge could be much more disastrous.

(1) If the knowledge does come out, the racists get to yell "I told you so," "Conspiracy of silence" etc. Then the IQ difference gets magnified 1000x in the public imagination.

(2) If t... (read more)

6WrongBot
I'm inclined to agree with you. I certainly don't think that avoiding dangerous knowledge is a good group strategy, due to (at least) difficulties with enforcement and unintended side-effects of the sort you've described here. While the scientific consensus has become more clear, I'm not sure that it's reflected in popular or even intellectual opinion. Note the continuing popularity of Judith Butler in non-science academic circles, for example. Or the media's general tendency to discuss sex differences entirely outside of any scientific context. This may not be the best example.
9simplicio
Perhaps not for society at large, but what about empirically-based intellectuals themselves? Do you think knowledge of innate sex differences leads to more or less sexism among them? I think it leads to less, although my evidence is wholly anecdotal. There is another problem with avoiding dangerous knowledge. Remember the dragon in the garage? In order to make excuses ahead of time for missing evidence, the dragon proponent needs to have an accurate representation of reality somewhere in their heart-of-hearts. This leads to cognitive dissonance. Return to the race/IQ example. Would you rather * know group X has a 10 points lower average IQ than group Y, and just deal with it by trying your best to correct for confirmation bias etc., OR * intentionally keep yourself ignorant, while feeling deep down that something is not right. ? I suspect the second option is worse for your behaviour towards group X. It would still be difficult for a human to do, but I'd personally rather swallow the hard pill of a 10-point average IQ difference and consciously correct for my brain's crappy heuristics, than feel queasy around group X in perpetuity because I know I'm lying to myself about them.
2[anonymous]
I think we are seeing that among the for now (fortunately) small group of relatively intelligent unconformist people who change their opinion on this subject once looking at the data. It biases them towards unduly sympathetic judgements of everyone else who happens to hold the same opinion. or or eventually Leaking unconfromist, driven, principled (as in truth seeking even when it costs them status) intelligent people to otherwise unworthy causes? This may prove to be dangerous in the long term. One can't overestimate the propaganda value of calling out a well intentioned lie out as a lie and then proving that it actually is, you know, a lie. Our biases make us very vulnerable to be overly suspicious of someone who has been shown to be a liar. This is doubly true of our tendency to question their motives.
1MichaelVassar
Possibly, but faith in the truth winning out also looks like faith to me. Also, publicly at least people have to pick their battles.

I flat-out disagree that power corrupts as the phrase is usually understood, but that's a topic worthy of rational discussion (just not now with me).

The claim that there has never been a truly benevolent dictator though, that's simply a religious assertion, a key point of faith in the American democratic religion and no more worthy of discussion than whether the Earth is old, at least for usual meanings of the word 'benevolent' and for meanings of 'dictator' which avoid the no true Scotsman fallacy. There have been benevolent democratically elected leaders in the usual sense too. How confident do you think you should be that the latter are more common than the former though? Why?

I'm seriously inclined to down-vote the whole comment community on this one except for Peter, though I won't, for their failure to challenge such an overt assertion of such an absurd claim. How many people would have jumped in against the claim that without belief in god there can be no morality or public order, that the moral behavior of secular people is just a habit or hold-over from Christian times, and that thus that all secular societies are doomed? To me it's about equally credible.

BTW, just from the 20th century there are people from Ataturk to FDR to Lee Kuan Yew to Deng Chou Ping. More generally, more or less The Entire History of the World especially East Asia are counter-examples.

that's a topic worthy of rational discussion (just not now with me).

If this is a plea to be let alone on the topic, then, feel free to ignore my comment below -- I'm posting in case third parties want to respond.

The claim that there has never been a truly benevolent dictator though, that's simply a religious assertion,

Perhaps it's phrased poorly. There have certainly been plenty of dictators who often meant well and who often, on balance, did more good than harm for their country -- but such dictators are rare exceptions, and even these well-meaning, useful dictators may not have been "truly" benevolent in the sense that they presided over hideous atrocities. Obviously a certain amount of illiberal behavior is implicit in what it means to be a dictator -- to argue that FDR was non-benevolent because he served four terms or managed the economy with a heavy hand would indeed involve a "no true Scotsman" fallacy. But a well-intentioned, useful, illiberal ruler may nevertheless be surprisingly bloody, and this is a warning that should be widely and frequently promulgated, because it is true and important and people tend to forget it.

BTW, just from the 20

... (read more)

I simply deny the assertion that dictators who wanted good results and got them were rare exceptions. Citation needed.

Admittedly, dictators have frequently presided over atrocities, unlike democratic rulers who have never presided over atrocities such as slavery, genocide, or more recently, say the Iraq war, Vietnam, or in an ongoing sense, the drug war or factory farming.

Human life is bloody. Power pushes the perceived responsibility for that brute fact onto the powerful. People are often scum, but avoiding power doesn't actually remove their responsibility. Practically every American can save lives for amounts of money which are fairly minor to them. What are the relevant differences between them and French aristocrats who could have done the same? I see one difference. The French aristocrats lived in a Malthusian world where tehy couldn't really have impacted total global suffering with the local efforts available?

How is G.W. Bush more corrupt than the people who elected him. He seems to care more for the third world poor than they do, and not obviously less for rule of law or the welfare of the US.

Playing fast and loose with geopolitical realities, (Iraq is only slightly about oil, for instance) I'd like to conclude with the observation that even when you yourself, as a middle class American, don't get your hands bloody as cheap oil etc corrupt you, it is possible that you are saved from bloody hands by an elected representative who you hired to do the job.

[-]prase130

I simply deny the assertion that dictators who wanted good results and got them were rare exceptions. Citation needed.

The standards of evaluation of goodness should be specified in greater detail first. Else it is quite difficult to tell whether e.g. Atatürk was really benevolent or not, even if we agree on goodness of his individual actions. Some of the questions

  • are the points scored by getting desired good results cancelled by the atrocities, and to what extent?
  • could a non-dictatorial regime do better (given the conditions in the specific country and historical period), and if no, can the dictator bear full responsibility for his deeds?
  • what amount of goodness makes a dictator benevolent?

Unless we first specify the criteria, the risk of widespread rationalisation in this discussion is high.

3Blueberry
Upvoted for the umlaut!
7prase
That was perhaps the cheapest upvote I ever got. Thanks. (Unfortunately Ceauşescu was anything but benevolent, else he would be mentioned and I could gather additional upvotes for the comma.)
6Mass_Driver
It's hard to find proof of what most people consider obvious, unless its part of the Canon of Great Moments in Science (tm) and the textbook industry can make a bundle off it. Tell you what -- if you like, I'll trade you a promise to look for the citation you want for a promise to look for primary science on anthropogenic global warming. I suspect we're making the climate warmer, but I don't know where to read a peer-reviewed article documenting the evidence that we are. I'll spend any reasonable amount of time that you do looking -- 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 90 minutes -- and if I can't find anything, I'll admit to being wrong. Slavery, genocide, and factory farming are examples of imperfect democracy -- the definition of "citizen" simply isn't extended widely enough yet. Fortunately, people (slowly) tend to notice the inconsistency in times of relative peace and prosperity, and extend additional rights. Hence the order-of-magnitude decrease in the fraction of the global population that is enslaved, and, if you believe Stephen Pinker, in the frequency of ethnic killings. As for factory farming, I sincerely hope the day when animals are treated as citizens when appropriate will come, and the quicker it comes the better I'll be pleased. On the other hand, if you glorify dictatorship, or if you give dictatorship an opening to glorify itself, it tends to pretty effectively suppress talk about widening the circle of compassion. Better to have a hypocritical system of liberties than to let vice walk the streets without paying any tribute to virtue at all; such tributes can collect compound interest over the centuries. The Vietnam war is generally recognized as a failure of democracy; the two most popular opponents of the war were assassinated, and the papers providing the policy rationale for the war were illegally hidden, ultimately causing the downfall of President Nixon. The drug war seems to be winding down as the high cost of prisons sinks in. The war on Iraq is prob
7MichaelVassar
Good writing style! I don't think I glorify dictatorship, but I do think that terribly dictatorships, like Stalinist Russia, have sometimes spoken of widening circles of compassion. I do think you are glorifying democracy. Do you have examples of perfect democracy to contrast with imperfect democracy? Slaves frequently aren't citizens, but on other occasions, such as in the immense and enslaving US prison system (with its huge rates of false conviction and of conviction for absurd crimes), or the military draft they are. The reduction in slavery may be due to philosophical progress trickling down to the masses, or it may simply be that slavery has become less economically competitive as markets have matured. Responsibility counts for something, but for far less among the powerful. As power increases, custom weakens, and situations become more unique, acts/omissions distinctions become less useful. As a result, rapid rises in power do frequently leave people without a moral compass, leading to terrible actions. I appreciate your efforts to avoid indirectly causing harms. I didn't know about the other Michael Vassar. It's an uncommon name, so I'm surprised to hear it.
7Mass_Driver
By which you mean, I suppose, that my skill as a rhetorician has exceeded my skill as a rationalist. Well, you may be right. Supposing you are, what do you suggest I do about it? Well, yes, I am. Not our democracy, not any narrow technique for promoting democracy, but democracy as the broad principle that people should have a decisive say in the decisions that affect them strikes me as pretty awesome. I guess I might be claiming benefits for democracy in excess of what I have evidence to support, and that if I were an excellent rationalist, I would simply say, "I do not know what the effects of attempting democracy are." I am not an excellent rationalist. What I do is to look hard for the answers to important questions, and then, if after long searching I cannot find the answers and I have no hope of finding the answers, but the questions still seem important, I choose an answer that appeals to my intuition. I spent the better part of my undergraduate years trying to understand what democracy is, what violence is, and whether the two have any systematic relation to each other. Scientifically speaking, my answer is that we do not know, and will not know, in all likelihood, for quite some time. Violence happens in places where researchers find it difficult or impossible to record it; death tolls are so biased by partisans of various stripes, by the credulity of an entertainment-based media, and by the fog of war that one can almost never tell which of two similarly-sized conflicts was more violent. Democracy is, at best, a correlation among several variables, each of which can only be specified with 2 or 3 bits of meaningful information, and each of which might have different effects on violence. Given the confusion, to scientifically state a relationship between democracy and violence would be ridiculous. And, yet, I find that I very much want to know what the relationship is between democracy and violence. I can oppose all offensive wars designed to change anoth
7MichaelVassar
Not at all. Rhetorical skill IS a good thing, and properly contributes to logic. Your argument seems rational to me, in the non-Spock sense that we generally encourage here. What to do? Keep on thinking AND caring! If the search you use is as fair and unbiased as you can make it, this looking hard for answers is the core of what being a good rationalist is. Possibly, you should look harder for the causes of systematic differences between people's intuitions, to see whether those causes are entangled with truth, but analysis has to stop at some point. In practice, rationalists may back themselves into permanent inaction due to uncertainty, but the theory of rationality we endorse here says we should be doing what you claim to be doing. I find it extremely disturbing that we aren't communicating this effectively, though its clearly our fault since we aren't communicating it effectively enough to ourselves for it to motivate us to be more dynamic either.
4MichaelVassar
When you say you glorify Democracy though, I think you mean something much closer to what I would call Coherent Extrapolated Volition than it is to what I would call Democracy. Something radically novel that hasn't ever been tried, or even specified in enough detail to call it a proposal without some charity. As a factual matter, I would suggest that the systems of government that we call Democracies in the US may typically be a bit further in the CEV direction than those we typically call dictatorships, but if they are, its a weak tendency, like the tendency of good painters to be good at basketball or something. You might detect it statistically, if you had properly operationalized it first, or vaguely suspect its there based on intuitive perception, but you couldn't ever be very confident it was there. It's obviously wrong to overturn cultural traditions which have been questioned but not refuted. Such traditions have some information value, if only for anthropic reasons, and more importantly, they are somewhat correlated with your values. In this particular case, if you limit your options under consideration to 'fight against invaders or do nothing' I have no objections. Real life situations usually present more options, but those weren't specified. As an off-the-cuff example, I think its obvious that a person who fought against the NAZIs in WWII was doing something better than they would by staying home even though the NAZIs didn't invade the US and even valuing their lives moderately more highly than those of others. OTOH, the marginal expected impact of a soldier on the expected outcome of the war was surely SO MUCH less than the marginal expected impact of an independent person who put in serious effort to be an assassin, while the risk was probably not an order of magnitude smaller, so I think its fair to say that they were still being irrational, judged as altruists, and were in most cases, well, only following orders. If they valued victory enough to b
0Mass_Driver
Thanks! Wholeheartedly agree, btw.
2Emile
I think you're referring to Michael Walzer.
0Mass_Driver
Right! Thank you.
1rela
I don't know if you're still looking for this, and if this would be an appropriate place to post links. But: Primary Evidence: * temperatures increase over the last 2000 years as estimated by tree ring, marine/lake/cave proxy, ice isotopes, glacier length/mass, and borehole data. figures S-1, O-4, 2-3, 2-5, 5-3, 6-3, 7-1, 10-4, and 11-2 are probably the most useful to you. Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years. Committee on Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years, National Research Council ISBN: 0-309-66144-7, 160 pages, 7 x 10, (2006) * anomalies in combined land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature increase significantly 1880-2009. Global-mean monthly, seasonal, and annual means, 1880-present, updated through most recent month. NASA Goddard. [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis][http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/) Other Supporting evidence: * earlier flowering times in recent 25 years, with data taken over the past 250 years. Amano, et. al [A 250-year index of first flowering dates and its response to temperature changes] (http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/277/1693/2451.full). Proc. R. Soc. B 22 August 2010 vol. 277 no. 1693 2451-2457 Contradicting evidence: * extremes of monthly average temperatures in Central England do not appear to match either a "high extremes after 1780s/1850s only" or "low extremes before 1780s/1850s only" hypothesis. Manley. [Central England temperatures: Monthly means 1659 to 1973] (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.49710042511/abstract). Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Volume 100, Issue 425, pages 389–405, July 1974 Hope that's helpful.
1kodos96
factory farming? huh?
4Kevin
In America, we have grown jaded towards protests because they don't ever accomplish anything. But at their most powerful, protests become revolutions. If Deng would have just ignored the protesters indefinitely, the CCP would have fallen. Perhaps the protest could have been dispersed without loss of life, but it's only very recently that police tactics have advanced to the point of being able to disburse large groups of defensively-militarized protesters without killing people. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_model and compare to the failure of the police at the Seattle WTO protests of 1999. This is a recent story about Deng's supposed backing of Tiananmen violence. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/05/world/asia/05china.html?_r=1

MichaelVassar:

I'm seriously inclined to down-vote the whole comment community on this one except for Peter, though I won't, for their failure to challenge such an overt assertion of such an absurd claim.

I was tempted to challenge it, but I decided that it's not worth to open such an emotionally charged can of worms.

The claim that there has never been a truly benevolent dictator though, that's simply a religious assertion, a key point of faith in the American democratic religion and no more worthy of discussion than whether the Earth is old, at least for usual meanings of the word 'benevolent' and for meanings of 'dictator' which avoid the no true Scotsman fallacy. There have been benevolent democratically elected leaders in the usual sense too. How confident do you think you should be that the latter are more common than the former though? Why?

These are some good remarks and questions, but I'd say you're committing a fallacy when you contrast dictators with democratically elected leaders as if it were some sort of dichotomy, or even a typically occurring contrast. There have been many non-democratic political arrangements in human history other than dictatorships. Moreover, it's not at all clear that dictatorships and democracies should be viewed as disjoint phenomena. Unless we insist on a No-True-Scotsman definition of democracy, many dictatorships, including quite nasty ones, have been fundamentally democratic in the sense of basing their power on majority popular support.

9RHollerith
Good point. For example, if you squint hard enough, the choosing of a council or legislature through lots as was done for a time in the Venetian state, is "democratic" in that everyone in some broad class (the people eligible to be chosen at random) had an equal chance to participate in the government, but would not meet with the approval of most modern advocates of democracy, even though IMHO it is worth trying again. The Venetians understood that some of the people chosen by lot would be obviously incompent at governing, so their procedure alternated phases in which a group was chosen by lot with phases in which the group that is the output of the previous phase vote to determine the makeup of the input to the next phase with the idea that the voting phases would weed out those who were obviously incompetent. So, though there was voting, it was done only by the relatively tiny number of people who had been selected by lot -- and (if we ignore information about specific individuals) they had the same chance of becoming a legislator as the people they were voting on. IMHO probably the worst effect of Western civilization's current overoptimism about democracy will be to inhibit experiments in forms of non-democratic government that would not have been possible before information technology (including the internet) became broadly disseminated. (Of course such experiments should be small in scale till they have built up a substantial track record.)

rhollerith_dot_com:

IMHO probably the worst effect of Western civilization's current overoptimism about democracy will be to inhibit experiments in forms of non-democratic government that would not have been possible before information technology (including the internet) became broadly disseminated.

I beg to differ. The worst effect is that throughout recent history, democratic ideas have regularly been foisted upon peoples and places where the introduction of democratic politics was a perfect recipe for utter disaster. I won't even try to quantify the total amount of carnage, destruction, and misery caused this way, but it's certainly well above the scale of those political mass crimes and atrocities that serve as the usual benchmarks of awfulness nowadays. Of course, all this normally gets explained away with frantic no-true-Scotsman responses whenever unpleasant questions are raised along these lines.

For full disclosure, I should add that I care particularly strongly about this because I was personally affected by one historical disaster that was brought about this way, namely the events in former Yugoslavia. Regardless of what one thinks about who bears what part of the blame for what happened there, one thing that's absolutely impossible to deny is that all the key players enjoyed democratic support confirmed by free elections.

Seconded. I live in Russia, and if you compare the well-being of citizens in Putin's epoch against Yeltsin's, Putin wins so thoroughly that it's not even funny.

8Vladimir_Nesov
You could attribute the difference to many correlated features, such as the year beginning with "20" instead of "19".
2LucasSloan
Also: The economy in Yeltsin's day was unusually bad, in deep recession due to pre-collapse economic problems, combined with the difficulties of switching over. In addition, today's economy benefits from a relatively high price for oil.
4Vladimir_Nesov
That would be a less absurdist version of my point.
0LucasSloan
I assumed you meant that economic growth (in general) meant that the wellbeing of people is generally going to be greater when the year count is greater. I was providing specific reasons why the economy at the time would have been worse than regressing economic growth would suggest, other than political leadership.
3RHollerith
Yes, that is a very bad effect of the overoptimism about democracy. Another example: even the vast majority of those (the non-whites) who could not vote in Rhodesia were significantly better off than they came to be after the Jimmy Carter administration forced the country (now called Zimbabwe) to give them the vote.
4MichaelVassar
I agree with everything in your paragraph. The important distinction between states as I see it is more between totalitarian and non-totalitarian than between democratic and non-democratic, as the latter tends to be a fairly smooth continuum. I was working within the local parlance for an American audience.
8JanetK
I agree that statements like all As are Bs are likely to be only approximately true and if you look you will find counter examples. But... 'power corrupts' is a fairly reliable rule of thumb as rules of thumb go. I include a couple of refs that took all of 3 minutes to find although I couldn't find the really good one that I noticed a year or so ago. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1298606 abstract: We investigate the effect of power differences and associated expectations in social decision-making. Using a modified ultimatum game, we show that allocators lower their offers to recipients when the power difference shifts in favor of the allocator. Remarkably, however, when recipients are completely powerless, offers increase. This effect is mediated by a change in framing of the situation: when the opponent is without power, feelings of social responsibility are evoked. On the recipient side, we show that recipients do not anticipate these higher outcomes resulting from powerlessness. They prefer more power over less, expecting higher outcomes when they are more powerful, especially when less power entails powerlessness. Results are discussed in relation to empathy gaps and social responsibility. http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/2010/01/power.php from J Lehrer's comments: The scientists argue that power is corrupting because it leads to moral hypocrisy. Although we almost always know what the right thing to do is - cheating at dice is a sin - power makes it easier to justify the wrongdoing, as we rationalize away our moral mistake.
9gwern
Somewhat relevant: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1548222
2JanetK
I can think of a number of reasons why monarchs may suffer somewhat less from the 'power corrupts' norm. (1) often educated from childhood to use power wisely (2) often feel their power is legit and therefore less fearful of overthrow (3) tend to get better 'press' than other autocrats so that abuse of power less noticeable (4) often have continuity and structure in their advisors inherited from previous monarch. Despite this, there have been some pretty nasty monarchs through history - even ones that are thought of as great like Good Queen Bess. However, if I had to live in an autocratic state I would prefer an established monarchy, all others things being equal.
6MichaelVassar
Voted up for using data, though I'm very far from convinced by the specific data. The first seems irrelevant or at best very weakly suggestive. Regarding the second, I'm pretty confident that scientists profoundly mis-understand what sort of thing hypocrisy is as a consequence of the same profound misunderstanding of what sort of thing mind is which lead to the failures of GOFAI. I guess I also think they misunderstand what corruption is, though I'm less clear on that. It's really critical that we distinguish power corrupting from fear and weakness producing pro-social submission and from fearful people invoking morality to cover over cowardice. In the usual sense of the former concept corruption is something that should be expected, for instance, to be much more gradual. One should really notice that heroes in stories for adults are not generally rule-abiding, and frequently aren't even typically selfless. Acting more antisocial, like the people you actually admire (except when you are busy resenting their affronts to you) do, because like them you are no longer afraid is totally different from acting like people you detest. I don't think that "power corrupts" is a helpful approximation at the level of critical thinking ability common here. (what models are useful depends on what other models you have).
6Aurini
Perhaps it would be more accurate to state "The structural dynamics of dictatorial regimes demands coercion be used, while decentralized power systems allow dissent"; even the Philosopher King must murder upstarts who would take the throne. Mass Driver's comments (below) support this, with Lee Kuan Yew's power requiring violent coercion being performed on his behalf, and the examples of Democratic Despotism largely boil down to a lack of accountability and transparency in the elected leaders - essentially they became (have become) too powerful. "Power corrupts" is just the colloquial form. (It is possible that I am in a Death Spiral with this idea, but this analysis occurred to me spontaneously - I didn't go seeking out an explanation that fit my theory)

Voted up for precision.
I see decentralization of power as less relevant than regime stability as an enabler of non-violence. Kings in long-standing monarchies, philosophical or not, need use little violence. New dictators (classically called tyrants) need use much violence. In addition, they have the advantage of having been selected for ability and the disadvantage of having been poorly educated for their position.

Of course, power ALWAYS scales up the impact of your actions. Lets say that I'm significantly more careful than average. In that case, my worst actions include doing things that have a .1% chance of killing someone every decade. Scale that up by ten million and its roughly equivalent to killing ten thousand people once during a decade long reign over a mid-sized country. I'd call that much better than Lincoln (who declared marshal law and was an elected dictator if Hitler was one) or FDR but MUCH worse than Deng. OTOH, Lincoln and FDR lived in an anarchy, the international community, and I don't. I couldn't be as careful/scrupulous as I am if I lived in an anarchy.

4WrongBot
While I'd disagree with your description of FDR as a dictator, you're quite right about Ataturk, and your other examples expose my woefully insufficient knowledge of non-Western history. My belief has been updated, and the post will be as well, in a moment. Thanks.
4MichaelVassar
Thank you! I'm so happy to have a community where things like this happen. Are you in agreement with my description of Lincoln as a dictator below? He's less benevolent than FDR but I'd still call him benevolent and he's a more clear dictator.
3WrongBot
Lincoln's a little more borderline, but so far as I'm aware, he didn't do anything to mess with the 1864 elections; I think most people would think that that keeps him on the non-dictator end of the spectrum Of course, the validity of that election was based on a document that he was actively violating at the time, so there definitely seems to be room for debate.
4MichaelVassar
In addition, there's the fact that most of the Southern States couldn't vote at the time. It was basically unthinkable that he could have lost the elections. Democratic and dictatorial aren't natural types, but I'd say Lincoln is at least as far in the dictatorial direction as Putin, Nazarbayev, or almost any other basically sane ex-Soviet leader.
3satt
I didn't challenge it because I didn't find it absurd. I've asked myself in the past whether I could think of heads of state whose orders & actions were untarnished enough that I could go ahead and call them "benevolent" without caveats, and I drew a blank. I'd guess my definition of a benevolent leader is less inclusive than yours; judging by your child comment it seems as if you're interpreting "benevolent dictator" as meaning simply "dictators who wanted good results and got them". To me "benevolent" connotes not only good motives & good policies/behaviour but also a lack of very bad policies/behaviour. Other posters in this discussion might've interpreted it like I did.
3MichaelVassar
Possibly. OTOH, the poster seems to have been convinced. I draw a blank on people, dictators or not, who don't engage in very bad policies/behavior on whatever scale they are able to act on. No points for inaction in my book.
2Carinthium
I know somebody who used to work for Lee Kuan Yew, who has testified that in quite a few ways he at least has been corrupted (things such as creating a slush fund, giving a man who saved his life a public house he didn't qualify for etc).
9gwern
That doesn't sound very corrupted to me. If your standard of corruption is that stringent, you could probably make a case for Barack Obama being corrupted - the Rezko below-market-price business, his aunt getting asylum and public housing, etc. (And someone like George W. Bush is even easier; Harken Energy, anyone?)
4Vaniver
Um, you're going to have a hard time claiming Obama isn't corrupted, or that he was uncorrupt to begin with. (As you mention, such a claim is even harder for Bush.)
8MichaelVassar
If the standard makes ALL leaders corrupt it doesn't favor democratic over dictatorial ones, nor is it a very useful standard. Relative to their power, are the benefits Obama, Lee Kuan Yew or even Bush skim greater than those typical Americans seek in an antisocial manner? Even comparable?
1Vaniver
Useful for what? I agree it's not terribly useful for choosing whether person A or person B should hold role X, but I feel that question is a distraction- your design of role X is more important than your selection of a person to fill that role. And so the question of how someone acquired power is less interesting to me than the power that person has, and I think the link between the two is a lot weaker than people expect.
5gwern
I'm presenting a dilemma. Either your standards for corruption are so high that you have to call both Yew & Obama corrupt, or your standards are loose enough that neither fits according to listed examples. I prefer to bite the latter bullet, but if you want to bite the former, that's your choice.
2Carinthium
Isn't the intelligent solution to talk about degrees of corruption and minimisisation? Measures to increase transperancy over this sort of thing are almost certainly the solution to Obama-level corruption.
0gwern
No, because that's a much more complex argument. Start with the simplest thing that could possibly work. If you don't reach any resolution or make any progress, then one can look into more sophisticated approaches.
1Carinthium
The reason to look at it that way is because it deals with problems of what is or isn't "corrupt" in general- instead, levels to get rid of (assuming one is in a position to supress corruption in the first place) can be set and corruption above a maximum level dealt with.

If knowing the truth makes me a bigot, then I want to be a bigot. If my values are based on not knowing certain facts, or getting certain facts incorrect, then I want my values to change.

It may help to taboo "bigot" for a minute. You seem to be lumping a number of things under a label and calling them bad.

There's the question of how we treat people who are less intelligent (regardless of group membership). I'm fine with discriminating in some ways based on intelligence of the individual, and if it does turn out that Group X is statistically less intelligent, then maybe Group X should be underrepresented in important positions. This has consequences for policy decisions. Of course, there may be a way of increasing the intelligence of Group X:

Based on all the evidence I have, I’ve made a conscious decision to avoid seeking out information on sex differences in intelligence and other, similar kinds of research.

How are you going to help a disadvantaged group if you're blinding yourself to the details of how they're disadvantaged?

1WrongBot
Agreed. But I should not make decisions about individual members of Group X based on the statistical trend associated with Group X, and I doubt my (or anyone's) ability to actually not do so in cases where I have integrated the belief that the statistical trend is true. The short answer is that I'm not going to. I'm not doing research on human intelligence, and I doubt I ever will. The best I can hope to do is not further disadvantage individual members of Group X by discriminating against them on the basis of statistical trends that they may not embody. People who are doing research that relates to human intelligence in some way should probably not follow this exact line of reasoning.

WrongBot:

But I should not make decisions about individual members of Group X based on the statistical trend associated with Group X [...]

Really? I don't think it's possible to function in any realistic human society without constantly making decisions about individuals based on the statistical trends associated with various groups to which they happen to belong (a.k.a. "statistical discrimination"). Acquiring perfectly detailed information about every individual you ever interact with is simply not possible given the basic constraints faced by humans.

Of course, certain forms of statistical discrimination are viewed as an immensely important moral issue nowadays, while others are seen simply as normal common sense. It's a fascinating question how and why exactly various forms of it happen (or fail) to acquire a deep moral dimension. But in any case, a blanket condemnation of all forms of statistical discrimination is an attitude incompatible with any realistic human way of life.

0WrongBot
The "deep moral dimension" generally applies to group memberships that aren't (perceived to be) chosen: sex, gender, race, class, sexual orientation, religion to a lesser extent. These are the kinds of "Group X" to which I was referring. Discriminating against someone because they majored in Drama in college or believe in homeopathy are not even remotely equivalent to racism, sexism, and the like.

The well documented discrimination against short men and ugly people and the (more debatable) discrimination against the socially inept and those whose behaviour and learning style does not conform to the compliant workers that schools are largely structured to produce are examples of discrimination that appears to receive less attention and concern.

3NancyLebovitz
Opposition to discrimination doesn't just happen. It has to be organized and promoted for an extended period before there's a effect. Afaik, that promotion typically has to include convincing people in the discriminated group that things can be different and that opposing discrimination is worth the risks and effort. In some cases, it also includes convincing them that they don't deserve to be mistreated.
9Vladimir_M
WrongBot: This is not an accurate description of the present situation. To take the most blatant example, every country discriminates between its own citizens and foreigners, and also between foreigners from different countries (some can visit freely, while others need hard to get visas). This state of affairs is considered completely normal and uncontroversial, even though it involves a tremendous amount of discrimination based on group memberships that are a mere accident of birth. Thus, there are clearly some additional factors involved in the moralization of other forms of discrimination, and the fascinating question is what exactly they are. The question is especially puzzling considering that religion is, in most cases, much easier to change than nationality, and yet the former makes your above list, while the latter doesn't -- so the story about choice vs. accident of birth definitely doesn't hold water. I'm also puzzled by your mention of class. Discrimination by class is definitely not a morally sensitive issue nowadays the way sex or race is. On the contrary, success in life is nowadays measured mostly by one's ability to distance and insulate oneself from the lower classes by being able to afford living in low-class-free neighborhoods and joining higher social circles. Even when it comes to you personally, I can't imagine that you would have exactly the same reaction when approached by a homeless panhandler and by someone decent-looking.
3Douglas_Knight
Without disagreeing much with your comment, I have to point out that this is a non sequitur. Moral sensitivity has nothing to do with (ordinary) actions. Among countries where the second sentence is true, there are both ones where the first is true and ones where the first is false. I don't know so much about countries where the second sentence is false. As to religion, in places where people care about it enough to discriminate, changing it will probably alienate one's family, so it is very costly to change, although technically possible. Also, in many places, religion is a codeword for ethnic groups, so it can't be changed (eg, Catholics in US 1850-1950).
5Vladimir_M
You're right that my comment was imprecise, in that I didn't specify to which societies it applies. I had in mind the modern Western societies, and especially the English-speaking countries. In other places, things can indeed be very different with regards to all the mentioned issues. However, regarding your comment: That's not really true. People are indeed apt to enthusiastically extol moral principles in the abstract while at the same them violating them whenever compliance would be too costly. However, even when such violations are rampant, these acts are still different from those that don't involve any such hypocritical violations, or those that violate only weaker and less significant principles. And in practice, when we observe people's acts and attitudes that involve their feeling of superiority over lower classes and their desire to distance themselves from them, it looks quite different from analogous behaviors with respect to e.g. race or sex. The latter sorts of statements and acts normally involve far more caution, evasion, obfuscation, and rationalization. To take a concrete example, few people would see any problem with recommending a house by saying that it's located in "a nice middle-class neighborhood" -- but imagine the shocked reactions if someone praised it by talking about the ethnic/racial composition of the neighborhood loudly and explicitly, even if the former description might in practice serve as (among other things) a codeword for the latter.
8Matt_Simpson
But you still discriminate based on sex, gender, race, class, sexual orientation and religion every day. You don't try to talk about sports with every girl you meet, you safely assume that they probably aren't interested until you receive evidence to the contrary. But if you meet a guy, then talking about sports moves higher on the list of conversation topics just because he's a guy.
2WrongBot
Well, I actually try to avoid talking about sports entirely, because I find the topic totally uninteresting. But! That is mere nitpicking, and the thrust of your argument is correct. I can only say that like all human beings I regularly fail to adhere to my own moral standards, and that this does not make those standards worthless.
4Matt_Simpson
For some reason I expected that answer. ;) I find it odd that you still hold on to "not statistically discriminating" as a value. What about it do you think is immoral? (I'm not trying to be condescending here, I'm genuinely curious)
2WrongBot
I value not statistically discriminating (on the basis of unchosen characteristics or group memberships) because it is an incredibly unpleasant phenomenon to experience. As a white American man I suffer proportionally much less from the phenomenon than do most people, and even the small piece of it that I pick up from being bisexual sucks. It's not a terminal value, necessarily, but in practice it tends to act like one.
2HughRistik
If following your moral standards is impractical, maybe those standards aren't quite right in the first place. It is a common mistake for idealists to choose their morality without reference to practical realities. A better search plan would be to find all the practical options, and then pick whichever of those is the most moral. If you spare women you meet from discussion of sports (or insert whatever interest you have that exhibits average sex differences) until she expresses interest in the subject, you have not failed any reasonable moral standards.
1WrongBot
Most moral by what standard? You're just passing the buck here.
0HughRistik
Moral according to your standards. I'm just suggesting a different order of operation: understanding the practicalities first, and then trying to find which of the practical options you judge most moral.
1WrongBot
But those standards are moral standards. If you're suggesting that one should just choose the most moral practical option, how is that any different from consequentialism? Your first comment sounded like you were suggesting that people should choose the most moral practical standard.
1SilasBarta
Well, until you factor in the unfortunate tendency of women to be attracted to men who are indifferent to their interests :-P
0[anonymous]
People don't get to choose how intelligent they are.
0Simplicius
Those people depend upon funding that is contingent on public opinion of how valid their research is. Also by making a research question disreputable, talented people might avoid it and those with ulterior motives might flock to it. Currently the only people who dare to touch this field in any meaningful way are those who are already tenured, and while that is the whole purpose of tenure, the fact remains that even if these people are due to their age (as the topic wasn't always taboo) not really showing the negative effects of the above paragraph they are still old. And old brains just don't work that well when it comes to coming up with new stuff. Deciding a piece of knowledge should be considered dangerous knowledge will necessarily lead to the deception of others and self on many different levels and in many different ways. I agree with the estimation made by some others that will produce Dragon in the garage dynamics which will induce many of the same bad results and biases you seem to wish to ameliorate.

I’ve also observed that people who come to believe that there are significant differences between the sexes/races/whatevers on average begin to discriminate against all individuals of the disadvantaged sex/race/whatever, even when they were only persuaded by scientific results they believed to be accurate and were reluctant to accept that conclusion. I have watched this happen to smart people more than once. Furthermore, I have never met (or read the writings of) any person who believed in fundamental differences between the whatevers and who was not also to some degree a bigot.

One specific and relatively common version of this are people who believe that women have a lower standard deviation on measures of IQ than men. This belief is not incompatible with believing that any particular woman might be astonishingly intelligent, but these people all seem to have a great deal of trouble applying the latter to any particular woman. There may be exceptions, but I haven’t met them.

The rest of the post was good, but these claims seem far too anecdotal and availability heuristicky to justify blocking yourself out of an entire area of inquiry.

When well-meaning, intelligent people like yo... (read more)

2WrongBot
I think it may be helpful to clearly distinguish between epistemic and instrumental rationality. The idea proposed in this post is actively detrimental to the pursuit of epistemic rationality; I should have acknowledged that more clearly up front. But if one is more concerned with instrumental rationality ("winning"), then perhaps there is more value here. If you've designated a particular goal state as a winning one and then, after playing for a while, unconsciously decided to change which goal state counts as a win, then from the perspective of the you that began the game, you've lost. I do agree that my last example was massively under-justified, especially considering the breadth of the claim.

In the comments here we see how LW is segmenting into "pro-truth" and "pro-equality" camps, just as it happened before with pro-PUA and anti-PUA, pro-status and anti-status, etc. I believe all these divisions are correlated and indicate a deeper underlying division within our community. Also I observe that discussions about topics that lie on the "dividing line" generate much more heat than light, and that people who participate in them tend to write their bottom lines in advance.

I'm generally reluctant to shut people up, but here's a suggestion: if you find yourself touching the "dividing line" topics in a post or comment, think twice whether it's really necessary. We may wish ourselves to be rational, but it seems we still lack the abstract machinery required to actually update our opinions when talking about these topics. Nothing is to be gained from discussing them until we have the more abstract stuff firmly in place.

My hypothesis is that this is a "realist"/"idealist" divide. Or, to put it another way, one camp is more concerned with being right and the other is more concerned with doing the right thing. ("Right" means two totally different things, here.)

Quality of my post aside (and it really wasn't very good), I think that's where the dividing line has been in the comments.

Similarly, I think most people who value PUA here value it because it works, and most people who oppose it do so on ethical or idealistic grounds. Ditto discussions of status.

The reason the arguments between these camps are so unfruitful, then, is that we're sorting of arguing past each other. We're using different heuristics to evaluate desirability, and then we're surprised when we get different results; I'm as guilty of this as anyone.

Here is another example of the way that pragmatism and idealism interact for me, from the world of pickup:

I was brought up with up with the value of gender equality, and with a proscription against dominating women or being a "jerk."

When I got into pickup and seduction, I encountered the theory that certain masculine behaviors, including social dominance, are a factor in female attraction to men. This theory matched my observation of many women's behavior.

While I was uncomfortable with the notion of displaying stereotypically masculine behavior (e.g. "hegemonic masculinity" from feminist theory) and acting in a dominant manner towards women, I decided to give it a try. I found that it worked. Yet I still didn't like certain types of masculine and dominance displays, and the type of interactions they created with women (even while "working" in terms of attraction and not being obviously unethical), so I started experimenting and practicing styles less reliant on dominance.

I found that there were ways of attracting women that worked quite well, and didn't depend on dominance and a narrow version of masculinity. It just took a bit of practice and creativ... (read more)

I strongly agree with this. Count me in the camp of believing true things in literally all situations, as I think that the human brain is too biased for any other approach to result, in expectation, in doing the right thing, but also as in the camp of not necessarily sharing truths that might be expected to be harmful.

9HughRistik
I was thinking the same thing, when I insinuated that you were being idealistic ;) Whether this dichotomy makes sense is another question. I think this an excellent example of what the disagreements look like superficially. I think what is actually going on is more complex, such as differences of perception of empirical matters (underlying "what works"), and different moral philosophies. For example, if you have a deontological prescription against acting "inauthentic," then certain strategies for learning social skills will appear unethical to you. If you are a virtue ethicist, then holding certain sorts of intentions may appear unethical, whereas a consequentialist would look more at the effects of the behavior. Although I would get pegged on the "realist" side of the divide, I am actually very idealistic. I just (a) revise my values as my empirical understanding of the world changes, and (b) believe that empirical investigation and certain morally controversial behaviors are useful to execute on my values in the real world. For example, even though intentionally studying status is controversial, I find that social status skills are often useful for creating equality with people. I study power to gain equality. So am I a realist, or an idealist on that subject? Another aspect of the difference we are seeing may be in this article's description of "shallowness."
5wedrifid
(Prompted by but completely irrelevant to the recent bump.) Come now. This is lesswrong. It is an "idealist"/"idealist" divide with slightly different ideals. :P One side's ideal just happens to be "verbal symbols should be used to further epistemic accuracy". It is very much an 'ethical or idealistic' position with all the potential for narrow mindedness that entails.
-1ChristianKl
The evidence that PUA works is largely anecdotal. A lot of people claim that one shouldn't believe in acupuncture based on anecdotal evidence. PUA however is a theory that plays well with other reductionist beliefs while acupuncture doesn't. I think the following two are open questions: Given the same amount of approaches, does a guy who has read PUA theories have higher success of getting laid? If the man has a goal to have a fulfilling long term relationship with an attractive woman, is it benefitial for him to go down the PUA road? The evidence for the status hypothesis is also relatively weak. Being reductionist does have nothing to do with being realist. Being reductionist brings you problem when you are faced with a system that's more complex than your model. In biology students get taught these days that even when you know all parts of a system you don't necessarily know what the system does. That reductionism is wrong and that you actually need real evidence for theories such as the status hypothesis.
2Vaniver
Isn't one of the benefits of PUA is that your number of actual approaches increases (while single, at least)?
0ChristianKl
Isn't one of the benefits of homeopathy that you get to talk to a person who promises you that you will feel better? If the control for homeopathy is doing nothing that you find that homeopathy works. If you however do a double blind trial you will probably find that homeopathy doesn't work. If you truly belief in rationalism and don't engage in it to signal status, I see no reason to use another standard for judging whether homeopathy is true than for judging whether PUA works.
2Vaniver
Aww, I respect you as a person too! (What were you trying to accomplish with this comment?) As you point out, which control you pick is significant, but my point is that what test you pick is significant too. Let's talk about basketball: you can try and determine how good players are by their free throw percentage, or you can try and determine how good players are by their average points scored per game. You're suggesting the analog of the first, which seems ludicrous because it ignores many critical skills. If someone is interested primarily in getting laid, it seems that the number they care about is mean time between lays, not percentage success on approaches. I won't comment much about your homeopathy example, except to say that even if one considers it relevant it undermines your position. Homeopathy is better than both nothing and harmful treatments (my impression is most people come to PUA from not trying at all or trying ineffectively). Generally, for any homeopathic treatment you could take there is a superior mainstream treatment, but for some no treatment is more effective than placebo (and so you're just making the decision of whether or not to pay for the benefits of placebo). Likewise, even if the only benefit of PUA is increased confidence, you have to trick yourself into that confidence somehow- and so if PUA boosts confidence PUA increases your chances, even though it did it indirectly.
4David_Gerard
Your statement concerning homeopathy turns out not to be correct. In practice, homeopathy is harmful because it replaces effective treatments in the patients' minds and It soaks up medical funding. Edit: Actually, yes, I do agree with Vaniver's point as explained below: at the time of its invention, homeopathy (i.e., water) frequently gave better results than the actively harmful things many doctors were doing to their patients. That said, I'm not sure the analogy with PUAs is usably solid even in those terms ... need to come up with one that might be.
4Vaniver
Precision in language: my statement concerning homeopathy is correct, but has debatable relevance. At present, homeopathy underperforms mainstream medicine for nearly everything (like I explicitly mentioned). But I strongly suspect the only reason we're talking about an alternative medicine that originated 200 years ago is because it predated the germ theory of disease by 70 years. So, it had at least 70 years of growth as an often superior alternative to mainstream medicine, which was murdering its patients through ignorance.* As well, Avogadro's number was measured about the same time as the germ theory was put forward by Pasteur, and so for that time homeopathy had as solid a theoretical background as mainstream medicine. My feeling is that insomuch as PUA should be compared to homeopathy, it should be compared to homeopathy in 1840- the proponents may be totally wrong about why it works and quality data either way is likely scarce, but the paucity of strong alternatives means it's a good choice.** Heck, it might even be the analog of germ theory instead of the analog of homeopathy. *The story of Ignaz Semmelweis ought not be forgot. **Is there anyone else trying a "scientific" approach to relationships? I know there are a number of sexologists, but they seem more descriptive and less practical than PUA. Not to mention they seem more interested in the physical aspects than the tactical/strategic ones.
2NancyLebovitz
A reductionist approach to acupuncture-- it claims that all the ideas about mystical energy are mistranslations, and explains acupuncture in terms of current biology.
0wedrifid
There is an implied argument in here that is triggering my bullshit senses. The worst part is that it uses what is a valid consideration (the lamentable lack of research into effective attraction strategies) and uses it as a facade over an untenable analogy and complete neglect of the strength of anecdotal evidence. Relative to what, exactly? The 'gravity' hypothesis? The evidence is overwhelming.
2ChristianKl
How do you determine the strength of anecdotal evidence to decide that PUA works and acupuncture doesn't? I know quite a few people both online and offline who claim that acupuncture has helped them with various issues. I know people online who claimed that PUA helped them. I know people online who say that they concluded after spending over a year in the PUA community that the field is a scam. I also know people online who have radically changed their social life without going the PUA road. As a good skeptic it important to know that you simply don't have enough information to decide certain questions.
8wedrifid
-2[anonymous]
And as an effective homo-hypocritus it is important to recognize when the 'good skeptic' role will be a beneficial one to adopt, completely independent on the evidence.
0WrongBot
This is only true if you have insufficient math/computing ability to simulate the interactions of the system's parts. For it to be otherwise, either your information would have to actually be incomplete, or magic would have to happen.
-1ChristianKl
Thanks to Heisenberg your information is also always incomplete. In real life you do have insufficient math/computing ability to simulate the interactions of many systems. Whether weak reductionism is true doesn't matter much for this debate. People who believe in strong reductionism find appeal in Pua theory. They believe that they have sufficient mental resources and information to calculate complex social interactions in a way that allows them to optimize those interactions. Because of the belief in strong reductionism they believe in Pua based on anecdotal evidence and don't believe in acupuncture based on anecdotal evidence.
7[anonymous]
If there's a discussion about whether or not we should seek truth -- at a site about rationality -- that's a discussion worth having. It's not a side issue. Like whpearson, I think we're not all on one side or another. I'm pro-truth. I'm anti-PUA. I don't know if I'm pro or anti status -- there's something about this community's focus on it that unsettles me, but I certainly don't disapprove of people choosing to do something high-status like become a millionaire. You're basically talking about the anti-PC cluster. It's an interesting phenomenon. We've got instinctively and vehemently anti-PC people; we've got people trying to edge in the direction of "Hey, maybe we shouldn't just do whatever we want"; and we've got people like me who are sort of on the dividing line, anti-PC in theory but willing to walk away and withdraw association from people who actually spew a lot of hate. I think it's an interesting issue because it deals with how we ought best to react to controversy. In the spirit of the comments I made to WrongBot, I don't think we should fear to go there; I know my rationality isn't that fragile and I doubt yours is either. (I've gotten my knee-jerk emotional responses burned out of me by people much ruder than anyone here.)

Anti-PC? Good name, I will use it.

I know my rationality isn't that fragile and I doubt yours is either.

What troubles me is this: your position on the divisive issues is not exactly identical to mine, but I very much doubt that I could sway your position or you could sway mine. Therefore, I'm pretty confident that at least one of us fails at rationality when thinking about these issues. On the other hand, if we were talking about math or computing, I'd be pretty confident that a correct argument would actually be recognized as correct and there would be no room for different "positions". There is only one truth.

We have had some big successes already. (For example, most people here know better than be confused by talk of "free will".) I don't think the anti-PC issue can be resolved by the drawn-out positional war we're waging, because it isn't actually making anyone change their opinions. It's just a barrage of rationalizations from all sides. We need more insight. We need a breakthrough, or maybe several, that would point out the obviously correct way to think about anti-PC issues.

[-][anonymous]100

Anti-PC? Good name

I don't think using this name is a good idea. It has strong political connotations. And while I'm sure many here aren't aware of them or are willing to ignore them, I fear this may not be true:

  • For potential new readers and posters
  • Once the "camps" are firmly established.
4[anonymous]
I think it actually is a value difference, just like Blueberry said. I do not want to participate in nastiness (loosely defined). It's related to my inclination not to engage in malicious gossip. (Folks who know me personally consider it almost weird how uncomfortable I am with bashing people, singly or in groups.) It's not my business to stop other people from doing it, but I just don't want it as part of my life, because it's corrosive and makes me unhappy. To refine my own position a little bit -- I'm happy to consider anti-PC issues as matters of fact, but I don't like them connotationally, because I don't like speaking ill of people when I can help it. For example, in a conversation with a friend: he says, "Don't you know blacks have a higher crime rate than whites?" I say, "Sure, that's true. But what do you want from me? You want me to say how much I hate my black neighbors? What do you want me to say?" I don't think that's an issue that argument can dissuade me from; it's my own preference.
0[anonymous]
This discussion prompted a connection in my mind that startled me a lot. Let's put it in the open. We've been discussing the moral status of identical copies. I gave a partial reductio sometime ago, but wasn't really satisfied. Now consider this: what about the welfare of your imperfect copies? Do UDT-like considerations make it provably rational to care more about creatures that share random features with you? Note that I say UDT-like considerations, not evolutionary considerations. Evolution doesn't explain professional solidarity or feminism because neither relies on heritable traits. Ganging up looks more like a Schelling coordination game, where you benefit from seeking allies based on some random quality as long as they also get the idea of allying with you based on same quality. And it might work better if the quality is hard to change, like sex or race. Anyone willing to work out the math is welcome to do so...
0steven0461
Asserting group inequalities means speaking more ill of one group of people but less ill of another, so doesn't that cancel out?
2[anonymous]
I'm not talking about empirical claims, I'm talking about affect. I have zero problem with talking about group inequalities, in themselves.
3Blueberry
But there are many different values. If we can't sway each other's positions, that points to a value difference.
8Vladimir_Nesov
If only it was always so. Value is hard to see, so easy to rationalize.
2[anonymous]
"Value difference" is often used as a cop-out. How did our terminal values come to be so different, anyway? If I'm extremely selfish and you're extremely selfish, we will likely have very different values, but if we are both altruistic, our values are combinations of values of all the other people in the world, so they should be pretty similar. For example, if I think society should be organized like an anthill and you think it should be organized like a pool of sharks (to borrow Ken Binmore's example), this is a factual disagreement about what would make everyone better off, not a value disagreement.
5Douglas_Knight
Maybe it's a political correctness principal component, but it seems to me that ideas about status should not be aligned with that component. If PUA had not been mentioned, and we were just discussing Johnstone, then I think those who are ignorant of PUA, whether pro- or anti-PC, would have less extreme reactions and often completely different ones. If people's opinions on one issue are polarizing their opinions on another, without agreement that they're logically related, something is probably going wrong and this is a cost to discussing the first issue. Also, cousin it talked about the issues creating "camps." That's probably the mediating problem.
0Risto_Saarelma
I am presently amused by imagining forum members declaring themselves "anti-truth". Though I guess there is a spectrum from sticking to discovering and exposing widely applicable truths no matter what, some kind of Straussian stance where only the enlightened elites can be allowed access to dangerous truths and the general populace is to be fed noble lies, and then on to even less coherent spheres of willful obscurantism and outright anti-intellectualism, where it seems that nobody is encouraged to pursue some topics. For some reason though, people who either explicitly believe that noble lies are necessary or have internalized a culture where they are built-in never seem to claim to be anti-truth.
3whpearson
I think there are divisions within the community, but I am not sure about the correlations. Or at least they don't fit me. I'm pro discussion of status, I liked red paper clip theory for an example. I'm anti acquiring high status for myself and anti people telling me I should be pro that. I'm anti-pua advice, pro the occasional well backed up psychological research with PUA style flavour (finding out what women really find attractive, why the common advice is wrong etc). I'm pretty much pro-truth, I don't think words can influence me that much (if they could I would be far more mainstream). I'm less sure about situations, if I was more status/money maximising for a while to earn money to donate to FHI etc, then I would worry that I would get sucked into the high status decadent consumer lifestyle and forget about my long term concerns. Edit: Actually, I've just thought of a possible reason for the division you note. If you are dominant or want to become dominant you do not want to be swayed by the words of others. So ideas are less likely to be dangerous to you or your values. If you are less-dominant you may be more susceptible to the ideas that are floating around in society as, evolutionarily, you would want to be part of whatever movement is forming so you are part of the ingroup. I think my social coprocessor is probably broken in some weird way, so I may be an outlier.

There's no social coprocessor, we evolved a giant cerebral cortex to do social processing, but some people refuse to use it for that because they can't use it in its native mode while they are also emulating a general intelligence on the same hardware.

2whpearson
I was being brief (and imprecise) in my self-assessment as that wasn't the main point of the comment. I didn't even mean broken in the sense that other might have meant it, i.e. Aspergers. I just don't enjoy social conversation much normally. I can do it such that the other person enjoys it somewhat. An example, I was chatting to a cute dancer last night (at someone's 30th so I was obliged to), and she invited me to watch her latest dance. I declined because I wasn't into her (or into watching dance). She was nice and pretty, nothing wrong with her, but I just don't tend to seek marginal connections with people because they don't do much for me. Historically the people I connect with have seem to have been people that have challenged me or can make me think in odd directions. This I understand is an unusual way to pick people to associate with, so I think something in the way I process social signals is different from the norm. This is what I meant.
8MichaelVassar
I know what's going on. You think of yourself and others as collections of thoughts and ideas. Since most people don't have interesting thoughts or ideas, you think they aren't interesting. OTOH, it's possible to adopt, temporarily and in a manner which automatically reverses itself, the criteria for assigning interest that the person you are associating with uses. When you do that, everyone turns out to be interesting and likable.
3whpearson
That wasn't my working hypothesis. Mine was that I have different language capabilities and that those affect what social situations I find easy and enjoyable (and so the different people I chose to associate with). For example I can quite happily rattle off some surreal story with someone or I enjoy helping someone plan or design something. I find it hard to narrate stories about my life or remember interesting tidbits about the world that aren't in my interest right at the moment. Oh I can find many things interesting for a brief time, e.g. where the best place to be a dancer is (London is better than Europe) or how the some school kids were playing up today. Just subconsciously my brain knows it doesn't want lots of that sort of information or social interaction so sends signals that I do not want to have long term friendships with these sorts of people.
1ABranco
Hi, Michael. Can you expand that thought, and the process? Doesn't adopting the other person's criteria constitute a kind of "self-deception" if you happen to dislike/disapprove his/her criteria? I mean that even if, despite your dislikes, you sympathize with the paths that led to that person's motivations, if reading a book happens to be a truly more interesting activity at that moment, and is an actionable alternative, I don't see how connecting with the person could be a better choice. Unless... you find something very enjoyable in this process itself that doesn't depend much on the person. I remember your comment about "liking people's territories instead of their maps" — it seems to be related here. Is it?
5Blueberry
Do you ever just associate with people you find attractive at first sight? (I can't tell if you're referring to a strip club, or what kind of dancer you mean.) You may find Prof. Richard Wiseman's research on what makes people "lucky" interesting: his research has found advantages to seeking marginal connections with people you meet.
3whpearson
Do you mean sexually attractive? Or just interesting looking? I'll initiate conversation with interesting looking people (that may or may not be sexually attractive). By dancer I just meant someone who does modern dance, she was a friend of a friend (I have some odd friends by this websites standard I think). Oh I know I should develop more marginal connections. It simply feels false to do so though, that I am doing so in the hopes of exploiting them, rather than finding them particularly interesting in their own right. I would rather not be cultivated in that fashion.
0Blueberry
I meant sexually attractive (you described the dancer as "cute" and "pretty"). Though I guess either would work.
0Blueberry
I'm not sure I understand. By 'emulating a general intelligence', do you mean consciously thinking through every action? My understanding is that people can develop social processing skills by consciously practicing unnatural habits until they become natural.
4MichaelVassar
No-one consciously thinks through every action. I mean thinking at all rather than paying total attention to the other person and letting your actions happen. If you feel that 'you' are doing something, you aren't running the brain in its native mode, your running an emulation. It's hard to figure out how to do this from a verbal description, but if it happens you will recognize what I'm talking about and it doesn't require any practice of anything unnatural.
4HughRistik
This is correct; at least some people can do this. For someone reason, there is a cultural bias that makes believe that this approach doesn't work, because so many people seem to believe that it doesn't without evidence. These people are wrong; this view has already been falsified by many people. Many people learn many different disciplines through the four stages of competence (unconscious incompetence, conscious incompetence, conscious competence, unconscious competence), in sports and the arts. Conversation isn't a special exception. Though it may be different from those domains by requiring more specialized mental hardware. Consciously practicing "unnatural" social habits happens to be a good way to jump start that hardware if it is dormant. Someone without this hardware may not be able to learn how to emulate naturally social people through consciously trying to emulate them. Yet I bet that most people with social difficulties short of Asperger's aren't missing the relevant hardware; they just don't know how to use it out of social inexperience, such as from spending their formative years being isolated and bullied for being slightly different.
-1daedalus2u
I disagree. I think there is the functional equivalent of a “social-co-processor”, what I see as the fundamental trade-off along the autism spectrum, the trading of a "theory of mind" (necessary for good and nuanced communication with neurotypically developing individuals and a “theory of reality”, (necessary for good ability at tool making and tool using). http://daedalus2u.blogspot.com/2008/10/theory-of-mind-vs-theory-of-reality.html Because the maternal pelvis is limited in size, the infant brain is limited at birth (still ~1% of women die per childbirth (in the wild) due to cephalopelvic disproportion). The “best” time to program the fundamental neuroanatomy of the brain is in utero, during the first trimester when the fundamental neuroanatomy of the brain is developing and when the epigenetic programming of all the neurons in the brain is occurring. The two fundamental human traits, language and tool making and tool using both require a large brain with substantial plasticity over the individual's lifetime. But other than that they are pretty much orthogonal. I suspect there has been evolutionary pressure to optimize the neuroanatomy of the human infant brain at birth so as to optimize the neurological tasks that brain is likely to need to do over that individual's lifetime.
6HughRistik
Another possibility is that we are seeing some other personality differences in openness and or agreeableness. People who are higher in openness and/or lower in agreeableness might be more interested in ideas that are judged politically incorrect, or antisocial.
1[anonymous]
The division might correlate with where people land on the various axis's of the neurodiversity spectrum.
3Blueberry
I think this is just another way of saying "I'm pro- good advice about dating and anti- bad advice about dating." I would consider the research you're discussing a form of PUA/dating advice.
9whpearson
Are newtons laws billiard ball prediction advice? In other words, there are other uses than trying to pick up girls for knowing what, on average, women like in a man. These include, but are not limited to, * Judging the likely ability of politicians to influence women * Being able to match make between friends * Writing realistic plots in fiction * Not being suprised when your friends are attracted to certain people
[-]Larks110

If you're an altruist (on the 'idealist' side of WrongBot's distinction), you'd probably consider making women you know happier to be the biggest advantage.

4whpearson
Most of the women I'm friends with are in relationships with men that aren't me :) So me being maximally attractive to them may not make them happier. I would need more research on how to have the correct amount of attractiveness in platonic relationships. Sure women like the attention of a very attractive man, but it could lead to jealousy (why is attractive man speaking to X and not me), unrequited lust and .strife in their existing relationships. Perhaps a research on what women find creepy, and not doing that, would be more useful for making women happier in general. Edit: There is also the problem that if you become more attractive you might make your male friends less happy as they get less attention. Raising the general attractiveness of your male social group is another possibility, but one that would require quite an oddly rational group.
2Emile
I agree that these politically charged issues are probably not a very good thing for the community, and that we should be extra cautious when engaging them.
0CarlShulman
Any hypotheses about the common factor?
6cousin_it
Not sure. I was anti-status, anti-PUA, pro-equality until age 22 or so, and then changed my opinions on all these issues at around the same time (took a couple years). So maybe there is a common cause, but I have absolutely no idea what that cause could be.
8[anonymous]
del
5CarlShulman
Reduced attachment to explicit verbal norms?
2JamesPfeiffer
My relevant life excerpt is similar to yours. The first two changed because of increased understanding of how humans coordinate and act socially. Not sure if there is a link to the third.
1Blueberry
It's called "growing up."
1[anonymous]
I wouldn't call it that, climbing the metacontrarian ladder seems to describe it much better.
[-][anonymous]180

A thousand times no. Really, this is a bad idea.

Yeah, some people don't value truth at any cost. And there's some sense to that. When you take a little bit of knowledge and it makes you a bad person, or an unhappy person, I can understand the argument that you'd have been better off without that knowledge.

But most of the time, I believe, if you keep thinking and learning, you'll come round right. (I.e.: when a teenager reads Ayn Rand and thinks that gives him license to be an asshole, his problem is not that he reads too much philosophy.)

You seem to be particularly worried about accidentally becoming a bigot. (I don't think most of us are in any danger of accidentally becoming supreme dictators.) I think you are safe. Think of it this way: you don't want to be a bigot. You don't want your future self to be a bigot either. So don't behave like one. No matter what you read. Commit your future self to not being an asshole.

I think fear of brainwashing is generally silly.* You will not become a Mormon from reading the Book of Mormon. You will not become a Nazi from reading Mein Kampf, or a Communist from reading Das Kapital. You will not become a racist from reading Steve S... (read more)

But most of the time, I believe, if you keep thinking and learning, you'll come round right. (I.e.: when a teenager reads Ayn Rand and thinks that gives him license to be an asshole, his problem is not that he reads too much philosophy.)

"A little learning is a dang'rous thing;
Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring:
There shallow draughts intoxicate the brain,
And drinking largely sobers us again."

-- Pope

4SilasBarta
That sounds like my (provisional) resolution the conflict between "using all you know" and "don't be a bigot": you should incorporate the likelihood ratio of things that a person can't control, so long as you also observe and incorporate evidence that could outweigh such statistical, aggregate, nonspecific knowledge. So drink deep (use all evidence), but if you don't, then avoid incorporating "dangerous knowledge" as a second best alternative. Apply a low Bayes factor for something someone didn't choose, as long as you give them a chance to counteract it with other evidence. (Poetry still sucks, though. I'm not yet changing my mind about that.)
[-]Emile140

(Poetry still sucks, though. I'm not yet changing my mind about that.)

... must ... resist ... impulse ... to ... downvote ... different ... tastes ...

0NancyLebovitz
The other problem with "using all you know" about groups which are subject to bigotry is that "we rule, you drool" is very basic human wiring, and there's apt to be some motivated cognition (in the people developing and giving you the information, even if you aren't engaging in it) on the subject.

You will not become a Nazi from reading Mein Kampf, or a Communist from reading Das Kapital.

I became a Trotskyite (once upon a time) partly based on reading Trotsky's history of the Russian Revolution. Yes, I was primed for it, but... words aren't mere.

2Emile
Interesting - would you recommend others read it? I'm interested in reading anything that can change my mind, but avoid some partisan stuff when it looks like it's "preaching to the choir" and that it assumes that the reader already agrees with the conclusions.
4simplicio
Yes, if you're not young, impressionable and overidealistic. Trotsky was an incredible writer, and reading that book you do really see things from the perspective of an insider.
0[anonymous]
This "it" may, or even should, relate to the idea itself. The same idea, the same meme, put into a healthy rational brains anywhere, will decide the same! Since the brains are just a rational machine always doing the best possible thing. It is the input, what decides the output. Machine has no other (irrational) choices, than to process the input best way it can, and then to spit out the output. It is not my calculator only, which outputs "12" to the input "5+7". It is every unbroken calculator in the world, which outputs the same. So again. The input "decides" what the output should be, not the computer (brains).
7[anonymous]
I don't know if this is a fair characterization of Steve Sailer. I'm quite sure some of his commenters are racist but then again many of the commenters on any major news site are as well. I would call him racialist, or perhaps just a HBDer. Perhaps I'm somewhat biased in my view of him, but generally for example this interesting video seems typical Steve Sailer style. This is as representative of racism as Das Kapital is of Communism or Mein Kampf of Nazism? Does racism just have a bad PR guy? Whatever one calls this it clearly dosen't deserve the few thousand negative karma points racism has in my mind. Perhaps he is putting forward his best face here, but listening to a few parts of this discussion I half expected he would start reciting the litany of Tarski, going into a Hansonian analysis of status or telling everyone that beliefs should pay rent. He certainly touches on these topics in a slightly different vocabulary! Reword a sentence or two and it sounds something a commenter could write on Lesswrong and get upvoted for.
0GLaDOS
Original link is broken. This seems to be the same video.
2Emile
He's probably more motivated by not wanting others to become bigots - right, WrongBot?
8WrongBot
My motivation in writing this article was to attempt to dissuade others from courses of action that might lead them to become bigots, among other things. But I am also personally terrified of exactly the sort of thing I describe, because I can't see a way to protect against it. If I had enough strong evidence to assign a probability of .99 to the belief that gay men have an average IQ 10 points lower than straight men (I use this example because I have no reason at all to believe it is true, and so there is less risk that someone will try to convince me of it), I don't think I could prevent that from affecting my behavior in some way. I don't think it's possible. And I disvalue such a result very strongly, so I avoid it. I bring up dangerous thoughts because I am genuinely scared of them.
[-][anonymous]