A meme in Rationality circles is to make predictions at the beginning of the year about subjects you feel knowledgeable about and assign them confidence levels. Then, later in the year, you see how your predictions fared and come to terms with your fallibility.
For example, last year I made predictions about Toronto's municipal government and they were almost all wrong, except Olivia Chow did get elected mayor!
As a bonus, lets try to come up with good enough questions to get participation on Manifold Markets!
Location
Enter the Mars Atrium via University Avenue entrance. We'll meet at the food court in the basement. I'll be wearing a bright neon yellow jacket.
Detailed Directions to the Food Court
Enter from University Avenue and walk west until you see escalators. Take the escalators down. The food court is to the west of the escalators. If you are lost/confused, ask a security guard to direct you to the food court.
A meme in Rationality circles is to make predictions at the beginning of the year about subjects you feel knowledgeable about and assign them confidence levels. Then, later in the year, you see how your predictions fared and come to terms with your fallibility.
For example, last year I made predictions about Toronto's municipal government and they were almost all wrong, except Olivia Chow did get elected mayor!
As a bonus, lets try to come up with good enough questions to get participation on Manifold Markets!
Location
Enter the Mars Atrium via University Avenue entrance. We'll meet at the food court in the basement. I'll be wearing a bright neon yellow jacket.
Detailed Directions to the Food Court
Enter from University Avenue and walk west until you see escalators. Take the escalators down. The food court is to the west of the escalators. If you are lost/confused, ask a security guard to direct you to the food court.