ACXLW Meetup 79: Revisiting "Rules for Rulers" by CGP Grey and "Game Theory of Michigan Muslims" by Scott Alexander

Date: Saturday, November 16, 2024
Time: 2:00 PM
Location: 1970 Port Laurent Place, Newport Beach, CA 92660
Host: Michael Michalchik
Contact: michaelmichalchik@gmail.com | (949) 375-2045

Due to high interest and a desire for deeper exploration, we are revisiting our previous topics for this week's meetup. Join us as we delve further into the intricate dynamics of political power and strategic decision-making.

Conversation Starter 1

Topic: "Rules for Rulers" by CGP Grey
Videos:

• Rules for Rulers
• How to Rig an Election
  Transcripts: Reformatted Transcripts

Enhanced Summary:

• Foundations of Political Power: The videos are based on "The Dictator's Handbook" by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith. They dissect the mechanics of how rulers—whether dictators or democratically elected leaders—acquire, maintain, and lose power.
• Three Fundamental Rules:
  1. Secure the Support of Key Individuals: Rulers must identify and win over those who control essential resources, institutions, or influence.
  2. Control the Nation's Wealth: By managing the treasury, rulers can reward key supporters and ensure their loyalty.
  3. Minimize the Number of Essential Supporters: Fewer key supporters mean fewer people to satisfy, simplifying the maintenance of power.
• Application Across Governance Systems: While the rules are universal, their application varies between dictatorships and democracies. In dictatorships, power is concentrated, leading to potential abuses and neglect of the populace. In democracies, the need to satisfy a larger base can lead to policies that improve citizens' lives but may also result in systemic inefficiencies or corruption.
• Dynastic Power and Succession: The sequel video explores why rulers often place family members in positions of power. This practice can provide continuity and stability but also poses risks of nepotism and potential internal betrayal.
• Manipulation of Systems: The content examines how rulers may exploit legal systems, elections, and public policies to entrench their power, often at the expense of democratic principles and societal welfare.

Improved Discussion Questions:

a) Universal Dynamics of Power: How do the three rules for rulers help explain historical and contemporary political events across different countries? Can you identify real-world examples where these rules are evident?

b) Moral Implications of Power Strategies: Is it possible for leaders to follow these rules without compromising ethical standards? How can societies encourage leaders to prioritize the common good while recognizing the realities of political power?

c) The Role of Institutions: How do strong institutions and checks and balances mitigate the negative effects of these power dynamics? What mechanisms can be implemented to prevent the abuse of power by those in leadership positions?

d) Family Influence and Political Stability: In what ways does involving family in governance strengthen or weaken a political system? Are there alternatives to dynastic succession that can provide the same level of stability?

Conversation Starter 2

Topic: "Game Theory of Michigan Muslims" by Scott Alexander
Text: Game Theory of Michigan Muslims

Enhanced Summary:

• Strategic Voting as Political Leverage: The article discusses a group of Michigan Muslims contemplating voting for a candidate whose policies oppose their interests to signal their dissatisfaction with their traditional party's stance on critical issues, specifically regarding foreign policy in the Middle East.
• Applying Game Theory to Politics: By using the Ultimatum Game as an analogy, the article examines the strategic considerations behind voting decisions. In the Ultimatum Game, one player proposes a division of resources, and the other can accept or reject it. The analogy highlights the tension between immediate self-interest and long-term strategic positioning.
• Decision Theories Explored:
  • Causal Decision Theory (CDT): Suggests that actions should be based solely on their immediate consequences.
  • Logical Decision Theory (LDT): Proposes that agents should consider the logical implications of their actions, including how they influence others' expectations and future behaviors.
• Potential Consequences of Strategic Defection: The article explores whether voting against one's immediate interests can effectively pressure a political party to change its policies or if it risks marginalizing the group further.
• Coalition Dynamics and Loyalty: The piece delves into how political parties balance the needs of various constituencies and what happens when a group attempts to leverage its support in ways that may undermine coalition unity.

Improved Discussion Questions:

a) Effectiveness of Strategic Defection: Can minority groups effectively influence major political parties by threatening to withdraw their support? What historical examples support or refute this strategy?

b) Game Theory Limitations in Real Politics: How well does the Ultimatum Game capture the complexities of electoral politics and voter behavior? What factors in real-world politics complicate this analogy?

c) Ethics and Long-Term Consequences: Is it ethically defensible for a group to vote for a candidate whose policies may harm them or others to achieve a strategic objective? What are the potential long-term impacts on democratic processes and trust in political systems?

d) Alternatives to Voting Defection: What other methods can minority groups employ to make their voices heard and influence policy without resorting to voting against their interests?

Walk & Talk: After the discussion, we will take our usual hour-long walk. Nearby options for takeout include Gelson's and Pavilions, located in the 92660 zip code area.

Share a Surprise: Bring something to share that unexpectedly changed your perspective on life or the universe.

Future Direction Ideas: As always, feel free to contribute ideas for future meetings, topics, and activities.

Looking forward to seeing everyone there!