Individual Deniability, Statistical Honesty

Alicorn

If you have a lot of people to question about something, and they have a motivation to lie, consider this clever use of a six-sided die.

If the farmer tossed the die and got a one, they had to respond "yes" to the surveyor's question. If they got a six, they had to say "no." The rest of the time, they were asked to answer honestly. The die was hidden from the person who was conducting the survey, so they never knew what number the farmer was responding to.

Suddenly, the number of "yes" responses to the leopard question started coming up by more than just one-sixth.

If you have a lot of people to question about something, and they have a motivation to lie, consider this clever use of a six-sided die.

If the farmer tossed the die and got a one, they had to respond "yes" to the surveyor's question. If they got a six, they had to say "no." The rest of the time, they were asked to answer honestly. The die was hidden from the person who was conducting the survey, so they never knew what number the farmer was responding to.

Suddenly, the number of "yes" responses to the leopard question started coming up by more than just one-sixth.

The keywords here are "randomized response". There are some interesting variations (from the Wikipedia page):

The sensitive question is worded in two dichotomous alternatives, and chance decides, unknown to the interviewer, which one is to be answered honestly.

Alternative 1: "I have consumed marijuana." Alternative 2: "I have never consumed marijuana." The interviewed are asked to secretly throw a die and answer the first question only if they throw a 6, otherwise the second question.

62

Individual Deniability, Statistical Honesty

62

62

62

Individual Deniability, Statistical Honesty

62

62