(Disclaimer: I've been working at Google for about a month now. This post is on my behalf, not my employer's. Also it will not contain any secret information.)

Larry Page, one of the original founders of Google, recently came back as CEO and immediately declared that the company should focus on social stuff. This caused a lot of internet commentary, here's a typical example. And here's another example from before then. (Do read them, they're nice in a way.) As you can see, every armchair analyst paints a nice and clear picture of what's happening, and all those pictures are different. Eventually someone will end up right and beat their chest saying I told you so, and others will end up wrong and quietly forget that they ever said anything. We ought to do better.

Q1: what do you believe about Google's devious plans and their market reality?

Q2: why do you believe what you believe?