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Given the U.S. government's recent restrictions on Claude Mythos and GPT-5.6, I suspect one of the most tractable and effective strategies for further pushing the Overton window towards the urgency of implementing stronger AI regulation could be effectively communicating to policymakers that open-weights models, whose safeguards can be removed easily, are likely going to reach Mythos-level capabilities in under a year, which can meaningfully uplift cyberattacks and bioweapon development. Also, I suspect the main thing currently holding back the Overton window on interventions for AI x-risk in general to be a (perceived) lack of concrete evidence (see: The Milton Friedman Model of Policy Change, how we achieved the Montreal Protocol to mitigate climate change before the damage became irreversible despite strong industry pressure against it, etc.). Communicating loss of control risk would be ideal of course, but I'm currently unsure how this could be demonstrated safely.
The only ways to prevent Mythos-level open models would need to happen in China. Nobody but China is likely to produce a Mythos-level open model.
There are two main ways this might not happen:
The Chinese companies may decide to keep their most powerful models private as training costs go up. GitHub's recent decision to resell Chinese open models near the frontier may also annoy the companies which make those models, in much the same way that AWS repacking open source software annoys the companies that created it and tried to sell their own hosting service... (read more)