President Trump's second term has brought sweeping policy overhauls in international aid, trade agreements, and immigration enforcement, alongside growing tensions with the judiciary. These rapid changes have increased uncertainty about the US's future and its role on the world stage. Forecasting can help ground our thinking about the likely impacts of the Trump administration, helping to deliver greater clarity to the public on key issues by transforming competing narratives into quantifiable, testable predictions. 

Make your predictions in Metaculus's POTUS Predictions Tournament and compete for $15,000 on questions like:

• Will a federal judge be impeached by Republican Representatives in a partisan vote before January 3, 2027?
• What will the effective US tariff rate on goods being imported into the United States be at the end of 2026?
• How many journalists in the US will face criminal charges related to their work before 2027?
• Will the United States recognize Taiwan before January 20, 2029?
• What will net outlays by the US government be in FY 2028?
• Which party will hold a plurality in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections?
• Will the US Senate weaken or eliminate the filibuster before January 3, 2029?

We’ll be adding more questions in waves launching on May 1 and June 1, as well as topical questions as they occur over the course of the tournament. 

For questions focused on international aid, see the USAID Outlook series.