A bit of feedback: the "We get a second chance at building AGI" outcome should not be an outcome or perhaps rephrased.
It's nicely done, and I think it will be helpful for anyone in refining their thinking. Thanks for doing this! And for making it easy to edit. That makes it a more general tool for scenario evaluation.
Gave it shot on my phone (Android, Firefox). Works great! Fun and easy to experiment with. I feel like there are a few key paths missing, or perhaps the framing of the paths doesn't quite line up with my understanding of the world.
With the options I was given, I get 8.9% extinction, 1.1% good, remainder ambivalent.
Personally, I think we have something like a 10% chance of extinction, 88% chance of utopia, and 2% chance of ambivalent.
At some point I think carefully about the differences between my model and yours and see if I can figure out what's going differently.
Note: The linked site is a personal project, and all views expressed here are my own.
TL;DR
Additional context (copied from the website itself)
Background
Many experts and CEOs of the leading AI companies think advanced AI could pose catastrophic, or even existential risks to humanity.
I think we should take these concerns extremely seriously, and work hard to ensure that AI is developed in a way that is safe and beneficial for humanity.
This map is an attempt to visualize some of the key questions and uncertainties that could determine the future of AI, and to explore how different assumptions about these questions could lead to different outcomes.
How to use
Caveats
Feedback
If you have any feedback about this map (both about the questions/structure or the user interface), please let me know via this Feedback Form.
Addendum
Originally, I had planned to work more on the site before sharing it here, including features like
However, I did notice that I do not really have the time & energy to work on this project further, which is why I'm sharing it now in its current state.
I do hope you find value in it. Also, in case you'd like to create a similar website, but with a different flowchart structure (or additional features), please do feel free to clone my code on Github. In order to update the flowchart structure, you basically just need to update the strings in the "graph.js" file; no coding needed!