The Peter Attia Drive podcast episode #102: Michael Osterholm, Ph.D.: COVID-19—Lessons learned, challenges ahead, and reasons for optimism and concern

by Kenny1 min read4th Apr 20205 comments

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In this episode, Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and author of Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Killer Germs, provides an overview on the COVID-19 pandemic in regards to what has happened to date, what we’ve learned about how the disease spreads, and his optimism and pessimism about what potentially lies ahead. Michael gives his take on the true case fatality rate, why it differs around the world, and which underlying conditions, such as obesity, impact risk of severe illness and death. We also discuss the outlook regarding vaccines, repurposed drugs/antivirals for treatment, and Michael’s growing concern about supply chain limitations with respect to drugs, vaccines, n95 masks, and testing kits.

Michael Osterholm's episode on Joe Rogan's podcast on March 10:

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Another highlight around 32:40:

  • Some hospitals in Italy allowed infected workers to continue working, and without masks, if "they weren't that sick".

Another highlight around 29:05:

  • Both China and the Lombardy region in Italy are where many generic antibiotics (used in the U.S.) are made.

Another highlight around 23:20:

  • NYC reported [on March 30th or 31st] that 900 police officers are out with COVID-19, over 13% of the police force. The daily NYC COVID-19 mortality rate is 50% higher than the recent past base mortality rate (for all causes).

Another highlight, around 20 minutes:

  • Because the fatality rate seems to significantly depend on co-morbidities and maybe age itself too, different countries and different regions should be expected to have very different hospitalization and fatality rates. [I'm not sure that's accounted-for widely yet.]

I'm listening to it now myself but I thought his episode with Joe Rogan was good enough to recommend this first.

An early highlight:

  • 11:30 – Osterholm states that "there probably is durable immunity, at least for the short-term" and mentions a recent study on macaque monkeys that demonstrated short-term immunity – one (1) month (or one month after recovery?) – for monkeys that recovered from COVID-19 after deliberate infection by the researchers. None showed symptoms after being "re-challenged". The researchers reported that (all of?) the monkeys were IgM negative, PCR negative, and that "they did cultures too". Immunity might not last years but some immunity is (weak) evidence of longer-term immunity generally.