WHILE THE HUGE harms of coronavirus are well-known – death, illness, lockdowns, unemployment, recession, etc. – less attention has understandably been paid to the benefits.
Even clouds this dark have silver linings. Crises produce opportunities, innovation, and long-overdue reforms. 2020 will contain an extra year’s worth of mortality – but also a decade’s worth of progress, a leap into the future.
This post lists many benefits that could arise, so readers can consider how to maximize them, not just minimize harms. They cover a wide range of consequences. For example, lockdown has made many people (even drug gangsters) reassess their lives. Working from home has suddenly become normal, with less commuting, less cost, and more time for leisure and sleep. So people may move from cities to cheaper, more pleasant areas, or indeed countries.
Above all, coronavirus is a wake-up call - it could have been far worse. Better preparation for the next pandemic will reduce existential risk, potentially saving billions, or even trillions, of future lives.
Experiment & evolve
Lockdowns have created an experiment, making people and organisations re-think how - and why - they do things. Some activities become impossible and are abandoned, e.g. travel. For others, alternatives are tried, e.g. video calls for meetings and doctor’s appointments; or innovations, such as businesses sharing employees. This experimentation will continue well beyond lockdown, as the new reality emerges.
Many of these changes will turn out to be improvements, and will stick. Others, e.g. government-funded furloughing and virtual horse races, are temporary fixes which will go - as will changes that didn’t work. And things that were dropped as unnecessary, e.g. pointless meetings and regulations, will stay dropped.
All of this involves prioritizing: deciding what outcomes matter, and which solutions now work best. Many things will modernize, simplify, and become more efficient. Cost-effectiveness is key, as incomes will shrink for a while.
Finally, lessons will be learned from what went badly in the pandemic, and steps taken to improve resilience and prepare for future crises.
We can also view the situation in terms of evolution. The world has been struck by a metaphorical meteor, threatening not just lives, but ways of life. Those organisations, jobs, and activities that are fittest for the new environment, or can adapt, will survive. Others that are no longer useful will die out, often replaced by innovations, to produce a new normal.
The benefits
The list below contains all the potential long-term benefits of the pandemic that I could find or think of. No doubt it is somewhat focused on rich countries, though this is not the aim. Please suggest additions or changes in the comments.
Some benefits have started under lockdown, such as more volunteering. Others may come later, such as de-urbanization.
Some are mixed blessings, causing substantial harm as well; e.g. failures of non-viable businesses, charities and educational institutions. With some items it’s unclear, or a matter of opinion, whether it is a benefit or not, e.g. political changes. While many potential benefits are speculative, some are especially so - more hopes than predictions; e.g. better international cooperation, in reaction to the protectionism of the pandemic. So I’ve qualified some entries accordingly:
± Benefit with substantial harm, or unclear whether it’s a net benefit at all
? Very speculative
Disaster preparedness
Governments:
Preparation for future pandemics
?Planning for existential risks: if coronavirus prompts even a small improvement in this, it would vastly outweigh all of the pandemic's harms*
Businesses & other organisations:
Continuity planning
Insurance
Better contractual arrangements, e.g. force majeure clauses
More robust supply chains, e.g. less just-in-time manufacturing
More efficient, e.g. the UK's NHS still relies on paper records
Enables research on the data
Self-care:
Physical health: importance highlighted by increased coronavirus mortality (even though lockdown may produce shorter-term harms from alcohol and less exercise)
Mental health: importance highlighted by lockdowns and anxiety about health & jobs
More cycling & walking: to avoid infection risk on public transport
Sleep: improved by less commuting or shorter work hours (see Work)
Personal health trackers: more usage & features, e.g. measuring temperature
Less 'presenteeism' (unnecessary attendance at work)
Better rural Internet access
?Less office politics: as harder to do remotely
?VR headsets for remote meetings, etc.
Change in work hours to suit worker (e.g. after reflection during lockdown), as cost/job-saving measure by employer, or to enable social distancing in workplaces/transport:
Less work travel: due to less commuting, fewer in-person meetings & conferences, re-shoring (see Work)
±Less public transport: due to infection risk and restrictions on international travel (even long-term, if further pandemic waves expected)
Hence more cycling & walking
Less driving to stores: due to online shopping, infection risk in malls (though de-urbanization may increase some driving)
Less pollution (see Environment & nature)
±Lower fuel prices
±Staycations: replacing foreign travel
?Fewer road deaths - though train/bus passengers may switch to cars
?Delivery drones, self-driving vehicles, etc. to fulfill increased online orders
Environment & nature
Pollution:
Less CO2 and air pollution
?Awareness of noise pollution: after urban silence & birdsong under lockdown
?Increased climate change concern
Animals:
Reduction/banning of wild animal capture & sale
Better conditions in live animal markets
?Better animal farming conditions
Happier & healthier pets, as get more attention from home workers
Outdoor activities as social distancing measure (even long-term, if further pandemic waves are expected):
Visiting parks, gardens, playgrounds, countryside
Camping, hiking, fishing, boating, cycling, etc.
Outdoor sports, swimming pools, gyms
Open-air bars, restaurants, cafes
Open-air concerts, cinemas, theatres
Education
Home schooling:
±Part-time: to enable social distancing in schools (even long-term, if further pandemic waves are expected)
?±Full-time
Better parental understanding of children's education, due to home schooling during lockdown
Distance learning:
To support home schooling
Online university courses
?Online exams
Re-assessment of education & educational institutions, including:
?What they are for
In-person vs distance learning
?Private school & university fees
±Bankruptcies of some educational institutions
?±More continuous assessment following exam cancellations in e.g. UK
Adult education started under lockdown, e.g. learning an instrument or language
Leisure
More leisure time if stop commuting, or work shorter hours (see Work)
Entertainment tried/increased under lockdown, e.g.:
Arts & culture: music, reading, podcasts, painting, etc.
±TV & video streaming: e.g. replacing cinema
Games, puzzles & quizzes
Web surfing
±Social media
Other pursuits & hobbies tried/increased under lockdown, e.g.
Cooking
Takeaways / Deliveroo: e.g. replacing restaurants
Exercise
DIY / home improvement
Spring cleaning / decluttering
Gardening
Crafts
Knitting & sewing
Adult education (see Education)
Self-improvement / personal development
Meditation
±Prayer / worship
More online entertainment, e.g. live events, reaching wider audiences
Relationships
Some relationships improved/renewedby lockdown:
With partner
With children
With other family members, e.g. via video call
Friendships via video call, social media, etc.
New online friendships/relationships under lockdown
More time with partner, family & friends if stop commuting, or work shorter hours (see Work)
±Divorce / break-up, brought to a head by lockdown
Charity & community
Volunteering, e.g. started under lockdown
?More charitable donations / philanthropy
Cost-saving efficiencies if donations fall due to lower incomes
Innovation to deal with new circumstances or cut costs
Support for local community & businesses: e.g. due to home workers spending more time where they live
±Charity closures - hopefully counterproductive or low effectiveness ones
Perspective
Re-evaluation of life, including:
Meaning, purpose & values
Priorities & inessentials
Likes & dislikes
Own strengths & weaknesses
Opportunities & concerns
Death
Health: physical & mental
Relationships
Work, and work-life balance
Money
Appreciation of:
Essential services and key workers, e.g. in healthcare, social care, supermarkets, teaching, technology, mail & deliveries, transport, police
Role and importance of government, science, media, business and charities
Volunteers and helpful people
The elderly
Activities missed during lockdown, e.g. social contact, culture, sports, nature & the outdoors, tourism, cafes, bars, restaurants, religious worship
Domesticity
Simple pleasures
Solitude
Attitudes:
Kindness, consideration
Public spirit, less individualism
±Less materialism / consumerism
Resilience
Self-reliance
Flexibility
Acceptance of mortality
Acceptance of uncertainty
Humility, less complacency
?±Short-termism, living in the present
?Less concern about own appearance
?Less attention to celebrities
?Solidarity with other countries
Miscellaneous
±Deaths:
?±Beneficial if the world is overpopulated; or if humans, or those who died, are generally harmful or their lives not worthwhile; according to some (controversial) ethical theories
*Toby Ord's new book The Precipice estimates that the human race will only last another 600 years or so before it is wiped out, or permanently crippled, by a pandemic (probably a bioweapon) or other existential risk.
If coronavirus makes the world prepare slightly better for such disasters, thereby reducing the risk by say 1%, it would extend the human race by an expected value of 600 years × 1% = 6 years. The world population is forecast to reach about 11 billion, so this would save 6 years × 11 billion = 66 billion years of life.
If coronavirus kills 10 million people worldwide, each losing 10 years of life on average, 100 million years of life will be lost. This is a minute fraction of the benefit from improved disaster preparedness.
I have a similar list on my phone, which I have been writing for the last few weeks. Mine also includes people being more willing to show their emotions, a sense of worldwide solidarity, and an increase in reading.
I don’t share your enthusiasm for the increase in Amazon, Deliveroo and other companies with awful worker conditions - I would put this as a +/- at least. I do hope that local independent retailers do well from this crisis, and I suspect they will. We are doing all of our shopping in a corner shop and are on first name terms with the staff there now.
Thanks for this. I've made the online shopping thing a +/- as suggested (even though personally I think it's net positive; re worker treatment, while no doubt there is some of this, I doubt the conditions are awful on the whole - e.g. contrary to the horror stories, surveys show most gig economy workers are happy with their work.)
Reading and worldwide solidarity are already in there under Perspective (I put a ? by the solidarity thing because there has also been xenophobia & protectionism and this may increase).
Re people being more willing to show their emotions - is this so? More willing to show appreciation, certainly (mentioned again under Perspective).
[More added: now 183]
WHILE THE HUGE harms of coronavirus are well-known – death, illness, lockdowns, unemployment, recession, etc. – less attention has understandably been paid to the benefits.
Even clouds this dark have silver linings. Crises produce opportunities, innovation, and long-overdue reforms. 2020 will contain an extra year’s worth of mortality – but also a decade’s worth of progress, a leap into the future.
This post lists many benefits that could arise, so readers can consider how to maximize them, not just minimize harms. They cover a wide range of consequences. For example, lockdown has made many people (even drug gangsters) reassess their lives. Working from home has suddenly become normal, with less commuting, less cost, and more time for leisure and sleep. So people may move from cities to cheaper, more pleasant areas, or indeed countries.
Above all, coronavirus is a wake-up call - it could have been far worse. Better preparation for the next pandemic will reduce existential risk, potentially saving billions, or even trillions, of future lives.
Experiment & evolve
Lockdowns have created an experiment, making people and organisations re-think how - and why - they do things. Some activities become impossible and are abandoned, e.g. travel. For others, alternatives are tried, e.g. video calls for meetings and doctor’s appointments; or innovations, such as businesses sharing employees. This experimentation will continue well beyond lockdown, as the new reality emerges.
Many of these changes will turn out to be improvements, and will stick. Others, e.g. government-funded furloughing and virtual horse races, are temporary fixes which will go - as will changes that didn’t work. And things that were dropped as unnecessary, e.g. pointless meetings and regulations, will stay dropped.
All of this involves prioritizing: deciding what outcomes matter, and which solutions now work best. Many things will modernize, simplify, and become more efficient. Cost-effectiveness is key, as incomes will shrink for a while.
Finally, lessons will be learned from what went badly in the pandemic, and steps taken to improve resilience and prepare for future crises.
We can also view the situation in terms of evolution. The world has been struck by a metaphorical meteor, threatening not just lives, but ways of life. Those organisations, jobs, and activities that are fittest for the new environment, or can adapt, will survive. Others that are no longer useful will die out, often replaced by innovations, to produce a new normal.
The benefits
The list below contains all the potential long-term benefits of the pandemic that I could find or think of. No doubt it is somewhat focused on rich countries, though this is not the aim. Please suggest additions or changes in the comments.
Some benefits have started under lockdown, such as more volunteering. Others may come later, such as de-urbanization.
Some are mixed blessings, causing substantial harm as well; e.g. failures of non-viable businesses, charities and educational institutions. With some items it’s unclear, or a matter of opinion, whether it is a benefit or not, e.g. political changes. While many potential benefits are speculative, some are especially so - more hopes than predictions; e.g. better international cooperation, in reaction to the protectionism of the pandemic. So I’ve qualified some entries accordingly:
Disaster preparedness
Governments:
Businesses & other organisations:
Individuals:
Spare capacity & redundancy:
Government
Welfare state:
Digitization & modernization:
Trust in government in some countries: due to effective pandemic control, job retention schemes, etc.
Change of government/leader in some countries: if they did not handle pandemic well
Less avoidance of tax and regulations, as a result of re-shoring
Cost-saving efficiencies due to higher debt & lower tax revenue
?Transparency of government
?More constructive national politics
?Improved international cooperation, e.g.:
?Foreign aid:
?Ceasefires during pandemic in conflict zones, perhaps continuing afterwards
?Wellbeing/happiness economics take-up, as the pandemic highlights dilemmas between lives, livelihoods, and quality of life
Health & science
Public healthcare funding:
International collaboration on health research
Faster health research processes:
Advances in virology, epidemiology, sociology etc. from coronavirus research
Infectious disease reduction, due to long-term hygiene improvements (e.g. handwashing, ?face masks):
Telehealth, including:
Hence:
Digitization of health data:
Self-care:
Trust in science and medicine
Work
Remote work (usually office jobs):
Change in work hours to suit worker (e.g. after reflection during lockdown), as cost/job-saving measure by employer, or to enable social distancing in workplaces/transport:
Change of job/career:
±Bullshit jobs cut
±Automation of jobs: as cost-saving measure, or to reduce risk of worker absence in future lockdowns/crises
Fewer, more efficient meetings: as video conferences, or due to simplifications under lockdown
Corporate eLearning
?Better worker terms/rights:
Business
Innovation to deal with new circumstances, compete for reduced demand, or cut costs, e.g.:
Retail:
±Business failures - especially if barely viable even before the pandemic, or have crowded spaces, e.g.:
Relocation & transport
De-urbanization due to remote work (see Work):
Remote workers moving country:
±Re-shoring (see Disaster preparedness)
Less transport:
?Delivery drones, self-driving vehicles, etc. to fulfill increased online orders
Environment & nature
Pollution:
Animals:
Outdoor activities as social distancing measure (even long-term, if further pandemic waves are expected):
Education
Home schooling:
Distance learning:
Re-assessment of education & educational institutions, including:
±Bankruptcies of some educational institutions
?±More continuous assessment following exam cancellations in e.g. UK
Adult education started under lockdown, e.g. learning an instrument or language
Leisure
More leisure time if stop commuting, or work shorter hours (see Work)
Entertainment tried/increased under lockdown, e.g.:
Other pursuits & hobbies tried/increased under lockdown, e.g.
More online entertainment, e.g. live events, reaching wider audiences
Relationships
Some relationships improved/renewed by lockdown:
New online friendships/relationships under lockdown
More time with partner, family & friends if stop commuting, or work shorter hours (see Work)
±Divorce / break-up, brought to a head by lockdown
Charity & community
Volunteering, e.g. started under lockdown
?More charitable donations / philanthropy
Cost-saving efficiencies if donations fall due to lower incomes
Innovation to deal with new circumstances or cut costs
Support for local community & businesses: e.g. due to home workers spending more time where they live
±Charity closures - hopefully counterproductive or low effectiveness ones
Perspective
Re-evaluation of life, including:
Appreciation of:
Attitudes:
Miscellaneous
±Deaths:
?End of physical cash due to infection risk:
?Less crime, as criminals reassess their lives
?Better bank treatment of borrowers as continuation of special terms under lockdown
?Better rights for renters after evictions suspended during lockdown (e.g. in UK)
?More fact-checking on social media
Other resources
This list includes harmful consequences of coronavirus (as well as various of the above benefits).
In-depth discussion of some points is in a Politico article and FT series (paywall).
*Toby Ord's new book The Precipice estimates that the human race will only last another 600 years or so before it is wiped out, or permanently crippled, by a pandemic (probably a bioweapon) or other existential risk.
If coronavirus makes the world prepare slightly better for such disasters, thereby reducing the risk by say 1%, it would extend the human race by an expected value of 600 years × 1% = 6 years. The world population is forecast to reach about 11 billion, so this would save 6 years × 11 billion = 66 billion years of life.
If coronavirus kills 10 million people worldwide, each losing 10 years of life on average, 100 million years of life will be lost. This is a minute fraction of the benefit from improved disaster preparedness.