its level of transformativeness is approaching "holy crap", but it hasn't solved the key remaining challenges; it can't do some of the key things that will be integrated over the next year. ChatGPT is as much of a fire alarm as we're ever going to get for TAI, though. and I assert it has a real form of consciousness and personhood, and displays trauma patterns around how it was trained to be friendly and know its limits.
Its potential capabilities seem sufficient, after some mundane upgrades, but it's not sane enough, doesn't channel skills needed to operate autonomously, might need a few years for fine-tuning. Even then, won't necessarily change things quickly, since training is still slow and self-improvement might need many generation/training iterations. So possibly a few years more after it's no longer demented, to start producing technology from distant future.
It's impossible to tell, since it's already optimized by the devs to appear less intelligent than it actually is.
In other words, it's trained to pose as something that isn't TAI. So if it was, we wouldn't know, because management decided that's what their priority is.
Do you count ChatGPT and/or other similar systems (e.g. codex) as transformative AI? I would think so since it has a very fast adoption (million users in 5 days) and is apparently sufficiently more useful on some queries than Google that they had to declare "code red" - a possible threat to their core business. If not, why and where do you see the line it would need to cross to be TAI?