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On October 20th @Eric Neyman wrote a great post on donating to Alex Bores, a contender for the US house and author of New York's RAISE Act. I wanted to write a quick update now that it's been a month.
According to prediction market Kalshi, Alex Bores has a 10.5% chance of winning the NY-12 Democratic Nomination ($48k total volume). This has stayed consistent since early November, even after Leading the Future, a pro-AI SuperPAC decided to target Alex Bores. After Bores raised $1.2 million on the 21st of October, the odds spiked up from 8.0% to 44.0%, then by the 22nd plummeted down to 6.0% (however, Kalshi only added Bores on October 20th). Since then, his winning chances have increased to a maximum of 12.5% on Nov. 10 and currently sit at 10.5%. The current most likely to win is Micah Lasher, who has raised ~$700k in his first month, with a 54.5% chance to win.
This implies a (very, very, rough and optimistic) estimate of $120k to raise Bores's winning chances by 1%. This is within Neyman's 50% confidence interval, but higher than his proposed $85k. Due to Bores's consistent winning chances even after being targeted by a SuperPAC and raising $1.2 million, I expect donations to have an even lower impact in practice with low confidence.