This is a special post for quick takes by Esben Kran. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.
🏆📈 We've created Alignment Markets! Here, you can bet on how AI safety benchmark competitions go. The current ones are about the Autocast warmup competition (meta), the Moral Uncertainty Research Competition, and the Trojan Detection Challenge.
It's hosted through Manifold Markets so you'll set up an account on their site. I've chatted with them about creating a A-to-B prediction market so maybe they'll be updated when we get there. Happy betting!