It happens to me too, as if I don’t know how to update on Bayesian evidence or something. I don’t even need them to be lying about it. The cheating is enough.
There are partial mitigations, where they explain why something is a distinct ‘cheating allowed’ magisteria. But only partial ones. It still counts. [bolding mine - RC]
I'm curious what you consider cheating then. It is hard for me to come up with a reasonable heuristic for cheating that both retains the meaning of cheating ("violating accepted standards or rules") and does not lead to bad outcomes if I update noticeably towards "anyone who cheats is a cheating cheater who's gonna Cheat Cheat Cheat Cheat Cheat" anytime someone triggers it.
Consider someone doing the following:
| Behavior | Is it cheating? | Is it reasonable to update in favor of generalized cheating? |
|---|---|---|
| Driving 5-8 over the speed limit | It is a violation of the rules for your personal benefit. It increases the risk of harm in an accident. It may or may not increase the likelihood of an accident (highly context dependent). | I expect if I updated noticeably in the direction of "this person is cheating cheater who is never gonna stop cheating", I'll be worse calibrated. |
| Using a bathroom labeled "customers only" without buying anything | It is violating the rules for personal benefit and defecting against a specific person, costing them a small amount of money. They will likely update against the populace as a whole and trivially inconvenience many more customers (with a door code or similar) if many people do this. | While it is not something I personally would do, I again expect if I updated noticeably in the direction of "this person is cheating cheater who is never gonna stop cheating", I'll be worse calibrated. I have friends who do this. |
| Calling in "sick" when you're actually taking an interview day | Likely is violating the employee handbook/contract you (probably) signed. It is lying to your boss for personal benefit. | I think nearly everyone does this - if my priors do not take this into account I have bad priors. Again, I don't see a benefit to updating my character judgment of the person. |
| Breaking HOA rules that some of your neighbors ignore | Again yes, you are violating accepted rules, but in practice HOA rules are often foggy Schelling fences with semi-arbitrary enforcement. The real rules are "don't be the worst offender" and "don't antagonize board members", but those aren't what you or your neighbors accepted. | Almost certainly not. This is operating within the actual implicit rules rather than the stated ones. |
| Saying "I've read the terms and conditions" when you haven't | It is lying and defecting against the commons as it becomes common knowledge that nobody reads them and courts increasingly recognize as such. | No. Nearly everyone does this (although that personally frustrates me). |
| Using a VPN to bypass region locks on streaming sites | Yes, it is another form of internet piracy. It hurts the companies that produce the IP. It is violating the TOS (which you probably didn't read). | Maybe a slight update is warranted? It might show willingness to cause wildly diffuse harm to faceless entities, but almost definitely doesn't translate to interpersonal contexts. |
| Student collaboration on "individual" assignments | Depends on degree. Discussing concepts is expected; sharing answers breaks the assessment system's purpose. There's typically a spectrum most understand implicitly, but almost never does the system specify what is or isn't accepted in reality. | If it crosses into answer-sharing territory, probably yes. If it is discussing concepts, probably no. Are both in many cases technically considered cheating by the school (if it is investigating you)? Probably yes. |
| Deliberately misleading competitors about your business strategy | You are purposefully misleading someone else and causing them harm for your personal benefit, but also your competitor is probably doing the same. It is also not disallowed by any of the rules of the system. | Probably yes - but this one is less likely to be considered cheating by the common definition. |
So when does cheating signal character? I personally know how I would update (or not) in these cases, but it took reasoning through them for a minute for many of them.
I don't know of a commonly accepted definition of "cheating" where it would be reasonable to consciously update in favor of someone cheating if they do one of the things that counts as cheating.
Caveat: this post holds implicit that agents with the computational bounds of humans have significant trouble updating very small amounts in a given direction after devoting conscious thought to something.
The song he’s referring to is Landsailor. It is no Uplift, but it is excellent, now more than ever. Stop complaining about what you think others will think is cringe and start producing harmony and tears. Cringe is that which you believe is cringe. Stop giving power to the wrong paradox spirits.
I think also relevant to Pinker is that Christianity's songs/hymns would be cringe if they were spoken in a language you use everyday/understand and/or were not so heavily ingrained in your psyche. Religion says many many cringe-y things.
I hear word a bunch of new frontier AI models are coming soon, so let’s do this now.
Table of Contents
Programming Environments Require Magical Incantations
I don’t see it as gendered, but so much this, although I do have Cursor working fine.
My experience is that setting things up involves a series of exacting magical incantations, which are essentially impossible to derive on your own. Sometimes you follow the instructions and everything goes great but if you get things even slightly wrong it becomes hell to figure out how to recover. The same thing goes for many other aspects of programming.
AI helps with this, but not as much as you might think if you get outside the realms where vibe coding just works for you. Then, once you are set up, within the realm of the parts of the UI you understand things are relatively much easier, but there is very much temptation to keep using the features you understand.
That’s Not How Any of This Works
People who play standard economic games, like Dictator, Ultimatum, Trust, Public Goods or Prisoner’s Dilemma, frequently don’t understand the rules. For Trust 70% misunderstood, for Dictator 22%, and incentivized comprehension checks didn’t help. Those who misunderstood typically acted more prosocial.
In many ways this makes the games more realistic, not less. People frequently don’t understand the implications of their actions, or the rules of the (literal or figurative) game they are playing. You have to account for this, and often this is what keeps the game in a much better (or sometimes worse) equilibrium, as is the tendency of many players to play ‘irrationally’ or based on vibes. Dictator is a great example. In a real-world one-shot dictator game situation it’s often wise to do a 50-50 split, and saying ‘but the game theory says’ will not change that.
Cheaters Never Stop Cheating
A recurring theme of life, also see Cheaters Gonna Cheat Cheat Cheat Cheat Cheat.
It happens to me too, as if I don’t know how to update on Bayesian evidence or something. I don’t even need them to be lying about it. The cheating is enough.
There are partial mitigations, where they explain why something is a distinct ‘cheating allowed’ magisteria. But only partial ones. It still counts.
This is definitely a special case of ‘how you do anything is how you do everything,’ and also ‘when people tell you who they are, believe them.’
Variously Effective Altruism
Am I the only one who thought of this?
In all seriousness, this is great, exactly what you want to happen – stepping in quickly in suddenly high leverage opportunities.
Nothing negative about this, man is an absolute legend.
Gates is doing what other charitable foundations and givers fail to do, which is to actually spend the damn money to help people and then say their work is done, within a reasonable time frame. Most foundations instead attempt to remain in existence indefinitely by refusing to spend the money.
I would allocate funds to different targets, but this someone actually trying.
Ceremony of the Ancients
The Secular Solstice (aka Rationalist Solstice) is by far the best such ritual, it isn’t cringe but even if you think it is, if you reject things that work because they’re cringe you’re ngmi.
The song he’s referring to is Landsailor. It is no Uplift, but it is excellent, now more than ever. Stop complaining about what you think others will think is cringe and start producing harmony and tears. Cringe is that which you believe is cringe. Stop giving power to the wrong paradox spirits.
Indeed, the central problem with this ritual is that it doesn’t go far enough. We don’t only need Bright Side of Life and Here Comes the Sun (yes you should have a few of these and if you wanted to add You Learn or Closer to Fine or something, yes, we have options), but mostly on the margin we need Mel’s Song, and Still Alive, and Little Echo. People keep trying to make it more accessible and less weird.
Palantir Further Embraces Its Villain Edit
How are things going over at Palantir? Oh, you know, doubling down on the usual.
I do notice this is a sudden demand to not build software not that can be misused to help violate the US Constitution.
You know what other software can and will be used this way?
Most importantly frontier LLMs, but also most everything else. Hmm.
And if nothing else, as always, I appreciate the candor in the reply. Act accordingly. And beware the Streisand Effect.
Government Working
Continuing reminder: It is totally reasonable to skip this section. I am doing my best to avoid commenting on politics, and as usual my lack of comment on other fronts should not be taken to mean I lack strong opinions on them. The politics-related topics I still mention are here because they are relevant to this blog’s established particular interests, in particular AI, abundance including housing, energy and trade, economics or health and medicine.
In case it needs to be explained why trying to forcibly bring down drug prices via requiring Most Favored Nation status on those prices would be an epic disaster that hurts everyone and helps no one if we were so foolish as to implement it for real, Jason Abaluck is here to help, do note this thread as well so there is a case where there could be some benefit by preventing other governments from forcing prices down.
Then there’s the other terrible option, which is if it worked in lowering the prices or Trump found some other way to impose such price controls, going into what Tyler Cowen calls full supervillain mode. o3 estimates this would reduce global investment in drug innovation by between 33% and 50%. That seems low to me, and is also treating the move as a one-time price shock rather than a change in overall regime.
I would expect that the imposition of price controls here would actually greatly reduce investment in R&D and innovation essentially everywhere, because everyone would worry that their future profits would also be confiscated. Indeed, I would already be less inclined to such investments now, purely based on the stated intention to do this.
Meanwhile, other things are happening, like an EO that requires a public accounting for all regulatory criminal penalties and that they default to requiring mens rea. Who knew? And who knew? This seems good.
The good news is that Pfizer stock didn’t move that much on the announcement, so mostly people do not think the attempt will work.
There is an official government form where you can suggest deregulations. Use it early, use it often, program your AI to find lots of ideas and fill it out for you.
In all seriousness, if I understood the paperwork and other time sink requirements, I would not have created Balsa Research, and if the paperwork requirements mostly went away I would have founded quite a few other businesses along the way.
A good summary of many of the reasons our government doesn’t work.
I could never give that good a paragraph-length explanation, because I would have split that into three paragraphs, but I am on board with the content.
At core, the problem is a ratcheting up of laws and regulatory barriers against doing things, as our legal structures focus on harms and avoiding lawsuits but ignore the ‘invisible graveyard’ of utility lost.
The abundance agenda says actually this is terrible, we should mostly do the opposite. In some places it can win at least small victories, but the ratchet continues, and at this point a lot of our civilization essentially cannot function.
Once again, cutting FDA staff without changing the underlying regulations doesn’t get rid of the stupid regulations, it only makes everything take longer and get worse.
Jones Act Watch
Jim Cramer makes the case to get rid of the ‘ridiculous Jones Act.’ Oh well, we tried.
The recent proposals around restricting shipping even further caused so much panic (and Balsa to pivot) for a good reason. If enacted in their original forms, they would have been depression-level catastrophic. Luckily, we pulled back from the brink, and are now only proposing ordinary terrible additional restrictions, not ‘kill the world economy’ level restrictions.
Also note that for all the talk about the dangers of Chinese ships, the regulations were set to apply to all non-American ships, Jones Act style, with some amount of absolute requirement to use American ships.
That’s a completely different rule. If the rule only applies to Chinese ships in particular but not to ships built in Japan, South Korea or Europe, I don’t love it, but by 2025 standards it would be ‘fine.’
They also dropped fleet composition penalties, and the rule has at least some phase-in of the fees, along with dropping the per-port-of-call fee. Overall I see the new proposal as terrible but likely not the same kind of crisis-level situation we had before.
Then there’s the crazy ‘phase 2’ that requires the LNG sector in particular to use a portion US-built vessels. Which is hard, since only one such vessel exists and is 31 years old with an established route, and building new such ships to the extent it can be done is prohibitively expensive. The good news is this would start in 2028 and phase in over 22 (!) years, which is an actually reasonable time frame for trying to do this. There’s still a good chance this would simply kill America’s ability to export LNG, hurting our economy and worsening the climate. Again, if you want to use non-Chinese-built ships, that is something we can work around.
Ryan Peterson asks how to fix the fact that without the Jones Act he fears America would build zero ships, as opposed to currently building almost zero ships. Scott Lincicome suggests starting here, but it mostly doesn’t address the question. The bottom line is that American shipyards are not competitive, and are up against highly subsidized competition. If we feel the need for American shipyards to build our ships, we are going to have to subsidize that a lot plus impose export discipline.
Or we can choose to not to spend enough to actually fix this, or simply accept that comparative advantage is a thing and it’s fine to get our ships from places like Japan, and redirect our shipyards to doing repairs on the newly vastly greater number of passing ships and on building Navy ships to ensure what is left is supported.
Ritual Asking Of The Questions
Someone clearly is neither culturally rationalist nor culturally Jewish.
In My Culture, the profoundest act of worship is to try and understand.
Ritual is not about not understanding, at most it is about not needing to understand at first in order to start, and about preserving something important without having to as robustly preserve understanding of the reasons.
Ritual is about Doing the Thing because it is The Thing You Do. That in no way precludes you understanding why you are doing it.
Indeed, one of the most important Jewish rituals is always asking ‘why do we do this thing, ritual or otherwise?’ This is most explicit in the Seder, where we ask the four questions and we answer them, but in a general sense if you don’t know why you’re doing a Jewish thing and don’t ask why, you are doing it wrong.
This is good. The rationalists follow the same principle. The difference is that rather than carrying over many rituals and traditions for thousands of years, we mostly design them anew for the modern world.
But you can’t do that properly, or choose the right rituals for you, and you certainly can’t wisely choose to stop doing rituals you’re already doing, unless you understand what they are for. Which is a failure mode that is happening a lot, often justified by the invocation of a now-sacred moral principle that must stand above all, even if the all includes key load bearing parts of civilization.
Why I Never Rewrite Anything
Introducing the all-new Doubling-Back Aversion, the concept that we are reluctant to go backwards, on top of the distinct Sunk Cost Fallacy. I can see it, but I am suspicious, especially of their example of having flown SFO→LAX intending to go then to JFK, and then being more willing to go LAX→DEN→JFK than LAX→SFO→JFK even if the time saved is the same, because you started in SFO. I mean, I can see why it’s frustrating a little, but I suspect the bigger effect here is just that DEN is clearly ‘on the way’ to JFK, and SFO isn’t, and there’s a clear bias against ‘going backwards.’ They do try to cover this, such as here:
But I still don’t see a strong case here for this being a distinct new bias, as opposed to being the sum of existing known issues.
All The Half-Right Friends
The case by Dr. Todd Kashdan for seeking out ‘48% opposites’ as friends and romantic partners. You want people who think different, he says, so sparks can fly and new ideas can form and fun can be had, not some boring static bubble of sameness. But then he also says to seek ‘slightly different’ people who will make you sweat, which seems very different to me. As in, you want 10%-20% opposites, maybe 30%, but not 48%, probably on the higher end for friends and lower end for romantic partners, and if you’re a man dating women or vice versa that 10%-20% is almost certainly covered regardless.
There are, in theory, exceptions. I do remember once back in the day finding a 99% match on OKCupid (those were the days!), a woman who said she only rarely and slowly ever responded to anyone but whose profile was like a bizarro world female version of me. In my opening email I told her as much, asking her to respond the way she’d respond to herself. I’ll always wonder what that would have been like if we’d ever met in person – would it have been ‘too good’ a match? She did eventually write back months later as per a notification I got, but by then I was with my wife, so I didn’t reply.
Resident Expert
Patrick McKenzie is one of many to confirm that there are lots of things about the world that are not so hard to find out or become an expert in, but where no one has chosen to do the relevant work. If there is a particular policy area or other topic where you put your focus, it’s often very practical to become the World’s Leading Expert and even be the person who gets consulted, and for there to be big wins available to be found, simply because no one else is seriously trying or looking. Getting people’s attention? That part is harder.
Mine too.
And yes, by default you get to improve some small corner of the world, but that’s already pretty good, and occasionally you strike gold.
Alternatively, even if there are diminishing returns, so what? Even the diminished returns, even excluding the long tail of big successes, are still very, very good.
Apologies with longer words are perceived as more genuine. I think this perception is correct. The choice to bother using longer words is a costly signal, which is the point of apologizing in the first place. Even if you’re ‘faking it’ it still kind of counts.
Do Anything Now
Endorsed:
Thus there is a huge distinction between ‘things you can deal with later without having to otherwise think about it’ and other things. If you can organize things such that you’ll be able to deal with something later in a way that lets you not otherwise think about it, that’s much better. Whereas if that’s not possible, my lord, do it now.
If you can reasonably do it now, do it now anyway. Time saved in the future is typically worth more than time now, because this gives you slack. When you need time, sometimes you suddenly really desperately need time.
We Have A New Genuine Certified Pope So Please Treat Them Right
How to make $100k betting on the next Pope, from someone who did so.
I did not wager because I try not to do that anymore and because it’s specifically a mortal sin to bet on a Papal election and I actually respect the hell out of that, but I also thought that the frontrunners almost had to be rich given the history of Conclaves and how diverse the Cardinals are, and the odds seemed to be favoring Italians too much. I wouldn’t have picked out Prevost without doing the research.
I also endorse not doubling down after the white smoke, if anything the odds seemed more reasonable at that point rather than less. Peter Wildeford similarly made money betting purely against Parolin, the clear low-effort move.
Which Was the Style at the Time
The past sucked in so many ways. The quality of news and info was one of them.
Roon then tries to walk it back a bit, but I disagree with the walking back. The attention to detail is better now, too. Or rather, we used to pay more attention to detail, but we still get the details much more right today, because it’s just way way easier to check details. It used to be they’d get them wrong and no one would know.
Here’s a much bigger and more well known way the past sucked.
Intelligence Test
Tyler Cowen asks how very smart people meet each other. Dare I say ‘at Lighthaven’? My actual answer is that you meet very smart people by going to and participating in the things and spaces smart people are drawn to or that select for smart people. That can include a job, and frequently does.
Also, you meet them by noticing particular very smart people and then reaching out to them, they’re mostly happy to hear from you if you bring interestingness.
Asking Harvard graduates how they met people is quite the biased sample. ‘Go to Harvard’ is indeed one of the best ways to meet smart or destined-to-be-successful people. That’s the best reason to go to Harvard. Of course they met each other in Harvard-related activities a lot. But this is not an actionable plan, although you can and should attempt to do lesser versions of this. Go where the smart people are, do the things they are doing, and also straight up introduce yourself.
Constant Planking
Here’s a cool idea, the key is to ignore the statement when it’s wrong:
Gretchen is obviously mistaken. Whether or not one has ADHD, very often it is very clear where a sentence (or paragraph, or entire speech) is going well before it is finished. Similarly, often there are scenes in movies or shows where you can safety skip large chunks of them, confident you missed nothing.
That can be a Skill Issue, but often it is not. It is often important that the full version of a statement, scene or piece of writing exists – some people might need it, you’re not putting that work on the other person, and also it’s saying you have thought this through and have brought the necessary receipts. But that doesn’t mean, in this case, you actually have to bother with it.
Then there are situations where there is an ‘obvious’ version of the statement, but that’s not actually what someone was going for.
So when you say ‘plank’ here, you’re saying is ‘there is an obvious-to-me version of where you are going with this, I get it, if that’s what you are saying you can stop, and if it’s more than that you can skip ahead.’
But, if that’s wrong, or you’re unsure it’s right? Carry on, or give me the diff, or give me to quick version. And this in turn conveys the information that you think the ‘plank’ call was premature.
RSVP
Markets in everything!
No walking it back, this is The Way.
The Trouble With Twitter
Why do posts with links get limited on Twitter?
Predatory myopic optimization for ‘user-seconds on site,’ Musk explains.
I am also old enough to remember that. Oh well. It’s hard to measure ‘unregretted.’
Even unregretted, of course, would still not understand what is at stake here. You want to provide value to the user, and this is what gets them to want to use your service, to come back, and builds up a vibrant internet with Twitter at its center. Deprioritizing links is a hostile act, quite similarly destructive to a massive tariff, destroying the ability to trade.
It is sad that major corporations consistently prove unable to understand this.
Elon Musk has also systematically crippled the reach and views of Twitter accounts that piss him off, and by ‘piss him off’ we usually mean disagree with him but also he has his absurd beef with Substack.
At other times It Gets Better, this is Laura Loomer, who explicitly lost her monetization over this and then got it back at the end of the fued:
There’s also a third user listed, Owen Shroyer, who did not recover.
One could say that all three of these are far-right influencers, and this seems unlikely to be a coincidence. It’s still not okay to put one’s thumb on the scale like this, even if it doesn’t carry over to others, but it does change the context and practical implications a lot. He who lives by also dies by, and all that.
As a general rule, even though technically there Aint No Rule it is not okay and a breach of decorum to ‘bring the receipts’ from text conversations even without an explicit privacy agreement. And most importantly, remember that if you do it to them then it’s open season for them to also do it to you.
Matt Taibbi remains very clearly shadowbanned up through April 2025. If you go to his Twitter page and look at the views on each post, they are flattened out the way Substack view counts are, and are largely uncorrelated with other engagement measures, which indicates they are coming from the Following tab and not from the algorithmic feed. No social media algorithm works this way.
A potential counterargument is that Musk feuds rather often, there are a lot of other claims of similar impacts, and NYT only found these three definitive examples. But three times by default should be considered enemy action, and the examples are rather stark.
The question is, in what other ways is Musk messing with the algorithm?
Here’s a post that Elon Musk retweeted, that seems to have gotten far more views than the algorithm could plausibly have given it on its own, even with that retweet.
Putting together everything that has happened, what should we now make of Elon Musk’s decision to fire 80% of Twitter employees without replacement?
Here is a debate.
There’s no question Twitter has, on a technical and functional level, held up far better than median expectations, although it sure seems like having more productive employees to work on things like the bot problems and Twitter search being a disaster would have been a great idea. And a lot of what Musk did, for good and bad, was because he said so not because of a lack of personnel – if you put me in charge of Twitter I would be able to improve it a lot even if I wasn’t allowed to add headcount.
There’s also no question that Twitter’s revenue collapsed, and that xAI ultimately more or less bailed it out. One can argue that the advertisers left for reasons other than the failures of the marketing department (as in, failing to have a marketing department) and certainly there were other factors but I find it rather suspicious to think that gutting the marketing department without replacement didn’t hurt the marketing efforts quite a bit. I mean, if your boss is out there alienating all the advertisers whose job do you think it is to convince them to stop that and come back? Yes, it’s possible the old employees were terrible, but then hire new ones.
TikTok Needs a Block
In some sense wow, in another sense there are no surprises here and all these TikTok documents are really saying is they have a highly addictive product via the TikTok algorithm, and it comes with all the downsides of social media platforms, and they’re not that excited to do much about those downsides.
On the other hand, these quotes are doozers. Some people were very much not following the ‘don’t write down what you don’t want printed in the New York Times.’
Again, nothing there that we didn’t already know.
Similarly, for harm #2, this sounds exactly like various experiments done with YouTube, and also I don’t really know what you were expecting:
The evidence on harms #3 and #4 seemed unremarkable and less bad than I expected.
And it is such a government thing to quote things like this, for #5:
The post ends with a reminder of the study where students on average would ask $59 for TikTok and $47 for Instagram in exchange for deleting their accounts, but less than zero if everyone did it at once.
Once again, let’s run this experiment. Offer $100 to every student at some college or high school, in exchange for deleting their accounts. See what happens.
Put Down the Phone
Tyler Cowen links to another study on suspending social media use, which was done in 2020 and came out in April 2025 – seriously, academia, that’s an eternity, we gotta do something about this, just tweet the results out or something. In any case, what they found was that if users were convinced to deactivate Facebook for six weeks before the election, they report an 0.06 standard deviation improvement in happiness, depression and anxiety, and it was 0.041 SDs for Instagram.
Obviously that is a small enough effect to mostly ignore. But once again, we are not comparing to the ‘control condition’ of no social media. We are comparing to the control condition of everyone else being on social media without you, and you previously having invested in social media and now abandoning it, while expecting to come back and being worried about what you aren’t seeing, and also being free to transfer to other platforms.
Again, note the above study – you’d have to pay people to get off TikTok and Instagram, but if you could get everyone else off as well, they’d pay you.
What is wrong with this model is that using Facebook and Instagram also imposes costs on others for not using them, which is leading to a bad equilibrium for many. And also that these are predatory systems engineered to addict users, so contra Zuckerberg’s arguments to Thompson and Patel in recent interviews we should not assume that the users ‘know best’ and are using internet services only when they are better off for it.
I think social media has a stronger case than alcohol. It does provide real and important benefits when used wisely in a way that you can’t easily substitute for otherwise, whereas I’m not convinced alcohol does this. However, our current versions of social media are not great for most people.
So if the sign of impact for temporary deactivation is positive at all, that’s a sign that things are rather not good, although magnitude remains hard to measure. I would agree that (unlike in the case of likely future highly capable AIs) we do not ‘see a compelling case for apocalyptic interpretations’ as Tyler puts it, but that shouldn’t be the bar for realizing you have a problem and doing something about it.
Technology Advances
Court rules against Apple, says it wilfully defied the court’s previous injunction and has to stop charging commissions on purchases outside its software marketplace and open up the App Store to third-party payment options.
Stripe charges 2.9% versus Apple’s 15%-30%. Apple will doubtless keep fighting every way it can, but the end of the line is now likely to come at some point.
Market reaction was remarkably muted, on the order of a few percent, to what is a central threat to Apple’s entire business model, unless you think this was already mostly priced in or gets reversed often on appeal.
Recent court documents seem to confirm the claim that Google actively wanted their search results to be worse so they could serve more ads? This is so obviously insane a thing to do. Yes, short term it might benefit you if it happens you can get away with it, but come on.
For Your Entertainment
A theory about A Minecraft Movie being secretly much more interesting than it looks.
A funny thing that happens these days is running into holiday episodes from an old TV show, rather than suddenly having all the Halloween, Thanksgiving or Christmas episodes happening at the right times. There’s no good fix for this given continuity issues, but maybe AI could fix that soon?
Gallabytes’s stroll down memory lane there reminds me that the actual biggest changes in TV programs are that you previously had to go with whatever happened to be on or that you’d taped – which was a huge pain and disaster and people structured their day around it, this was a huge deal – and that even ignoring that the old shows really did suck. Man, with notably rare exceptions they sucked, on every level, until at least the late 90s. You can defend old movies but you cannot in good faith defend most older television.
Fun fact:
It is a stunning fact, but I don’t think that’s quite what this means. Time spent on site is very different from value extracted. The ability to read news when it matters is a ton more valuable per minute than the games, even if you spend more time on the games. It’s not obvious what is driving subscriptions.
Further praise for Thunderbolts*, which I rated 4.5/5 stars and for now is my top movie of 2025 (although that probably won’t hold, in 2024 it would have been ~4th), from the perspective of someone treating it purely as a Marvel movie in a fallen era.
Indeed, it is hard for words to describe the amount of joy I got from the credits sequence, that announced very clearly We Hear You, We Get It, and We Are So Back.
Please Rate This Podcast
Gwern offers a guide to finding good podcast content, as opposed to the podcast that will get the most clicks. You either need to find Alpha from undiscovered voices, or Beta from getting a known voice ‘out of their book’ and producing new content rather than repeating talking points and canned statements. As a host you want to seek out guests where you can extract either Alpha or Beta, and and as listener or reader look for podcasts where you can do the same.
Alpha is relative to your previous discoveries. As NBC used to say, if you haven’t seen it, it’s new to you. If you haven’t ever heard (Gwern’s example) Mark Zuckerberg talk, his Lex Fridman interview will have Alpha to you despite Lex’s ‘sit back, lob softballs and let them talk’ strategy which lacks Beta.
Another way of putting that is, you only need to hear about any given person’s book (whether or not it involves a literal book, which it often does) once every cycle of talking points. You can get that one time from basically any podcast, and it’s fine. But you then wouldn’t want to do that again.
Gwern lists Mark Zuckerberg and Satya Nadella as tough nuts to crack, and indeed the interviews Dwarkesh did with them showed this, with Nadella being especially ‘well-coached,’ and someone too PR-savvy like MrBeast as a bad guest who won’t let you do anything interesting and might torpedo the whole thing.
My pick for toughest nut to crack is Tyler Cowen. No one has a larger, more expansive book, and most people interviewing him never seem to get him to start thinking. Plus, because he’s Tyler Cowen, he’s the one person Tyler Cowen won’t do the research for.
There are of course also other reasons to listen to or host podcasts.
I Was Promised Flying Self-Driving Cars
Surge pricing comes to Waymo. You can no longer raise supply, but you can still ration supply and limit demand, so it is still the correct move. But how will people react? There is a lot of pearl clutching about how this hurts the poor or ‘creates losers,’ but may I suggest that if you can’t take the new prices you can call an Uber or Lyft without them being integrated into the same app? Or you can wait.
Waymo hits 250k rides per week in April 2025, two months after 200k.
Waymo is partnering with Toyota for a new autonomous vehicle platform. Right now, Waymo faces multiple bottlenecks, but one key one is that it is tough to build and equip enough vehicles. Solving that problem would go a long way.
Waymo’s injury rate reductions imply that fully self-driving cars would reduce road deaths by 34,800 annually. It’s probably more than that, because most of the remaining crashes by Waymos are caused by human drivers.
Aurora begins commercial driverless trucking in Texas between Dallas and Houston.
Gamers Gonna Game Game Game Game Game
Europa Universalis 5 is coming. If you thought EU4 was complex, this is going to be a lot more complex. It looks like it will be fascinating and a great experience for those who have that kind of time, but this is unlikely to include me. It is so complex they let you automate large portions of the game, with the problem that if you do that how will you then learn it?
They’re remaking the Legend of Heroes games, a classic Japanese RPG series a la Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest, starting with Trials In The Sky in September. Oh to have this kind of time.
They’re considering remaking Chrono Trigger. I agree with the post here that a remake is unnecessary. The game works great as it is.
Proposal for a grand collaboration to prove you cannot beat Super Mario Bros. in less than 17685 frames, the best human time remains 17703. This would be an example of proving things about real world systems, and we’ve already put a ton of effort into optimizing this. Peter is about 50% that there is indeed no way to do better than 17685.
If you know, you know:
Sports Go Sports
College sports are allocating talent efficiently. You didn’t come here to play school.
And That’s Terrible?
I do think it is terrible. Every trade and every transfer makes sports more confusing and less enjoyable. The stories are worse. It harder to root for players and teams. It makes it harder to work as a team or to invest in the future of players, both as athletes and as students. And it enshrines the top teams to always be the top teams. In the long run, I find it deeply corrosive.
I find it confusing that there is this much transferring going on. There are large costs to transferring for the player. You have an established campus life and friends. You have connections to the team and the coach and have established goodwill. There are increasing returns to staying in one place. So you would think that there would be strong incentives to stay put and work out a deal that benefits everyone.
The flip side is that there are a lot of teams out there, so the one you sign with is unlikely to be the best fit going forward, especially if you outperform expectations, which changes your value and also your priorities and needs.
I love college football, but they absolutely need to get the transferring under control. It’s gone way too far. My guess is the best way forward is to allow true professional contracts with teams that replace the current NIL system, which would allow for win-win deals that involve commitment or at least backloading compensation, and various other incentives to limit transfers.
I am not saying the NBA fixes the draft lottery, but… no wait I am saying the NBA fixes the draft lottery, given Dallas getting the first pick this year combined with previous incidents. I don’t know this for certain, but at this point, come on.
As Seth Burn puts it, there are ways to get provably random outcomes. The NBA keeps not using those methods. This keeps resulting in outcomes that are unlikely and suspiciously look like fixes. Three times is enemy action. This is more than three.
On the other hand, I do like that tanking for the first pick is being actively punished, even if it’s being done via blatant cheating. At some point everyone knows the league is choosing the outcome, so it isn’t cheating, and I’m kind of fine with ‘if we think you tanked without our permission you don’t get the first pick.’