I'm a professional investigator. My standard of evidence is "more likely than not." I think it would be helpful, especially for collaborative purposes, to have a visual reasoning tool inspired by Bayesian thinking. Users could map out individual beliefs, assign probability and confidence levels, and link them with directional influence weights to reflect how one belief affects another. As evidence changes, the map would update, making belief revision explicit and interactive. It would be a lightweight, intuitive Bayesian network that could be intuitively understood by a layperson. It would be shallow and imprecise compared to formal models, but grounded in the same principles. It occurred to me that such a tool would be somewhat universal. One could use it for apple picking just as easily as sex crimes investigations, which makes me think that this must already exist. But I can't find it. I would be so grateful if anyone could point me in the right direction.