Today we are sharing with our blog readers a collection of yet-to-be-published drafts, in the hope of receiving feedback. We are especially looking for methodological critique, but all comments welcome!
Looking at your list of objects, used to estimate how much hardware will be needed to create AGI, I am worried that there may be a problem, related to something I've heard of but didn't quite understand, called "reference class tennis". To address the problem, I suggest adding a tennis racket, a tennis ball, and a tennis court to the list of objects. This should also help to make the result more statistically significant, by increasing the sample size.
Announcement: "How much hardware will we need to create AGI?" was actually inspired by a conversation I had with Ronny Fernandez and forgot about, credit goes to him for the original idea of using 'the weights of random objects' as a reference class.
By Katja Grace, April 1 2021
Today we are sharing with our blog readers a collection of yet-to-be-published drafts, in the hope of receiving feedback. We are especially looking for methodological critique, but all comments welcome!
Human-level performance estimate (Katja Grace)
How much hardware will we need to create AGI? (Asya Bergal)
Historic trends in AI Impacts productivity (Daniel Kokotajlo)
Analysis of superbombs as a global threat (Katja Grace)