[ Question ]

What's the present value of the Future?

by Mati_Roy 1 min read21st Mar 20201 comment

4


Present value: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/presentvalue.asp

If the question is a confusion, I'd also like to know why.

I have a sufficiently related question that I'll just post it here:

  • If everyone knew Alphabet would create a fast take-off friendly superintelligence in 2120, except (or including, depending on your values) it would be a libertarian world (meaning the wealth would be redistributed to the shareholders), then how much would Alphabet be worth? (related: After which year does it stop being worth some relevant threshold?)

(Of course, this question is just an approximation of a potential future, but I still think it's a valuable one.)

My first stab at the question of Alphabet:

  • 1.07 increase per year ^ 100 years = ~10^3 multiples
  • value of the the world = ~10^13 USD
  • value of the Sun: 10^25 operations = ~10^25 human lives

Even with a 1000 discount, and assuming a human-life equivalent of operation is worth 1 USD, the present value would still be 10^22 USD, much more than world total asset value. This means that even with a 1 in a 10^12 chance of this happening, opportunity cost aside, all assets should be invested there. The opportunity cost just/mostly means other investments might have a higher probability (like other AI companies). Why aren't AI companies worth massively more?

Related post: Why don't singularitarians bet on the creation of AGI by buying stocks?

Related: I saw an article (I think on https://aiimpacts.org/, but I can't find it back) that was proposing economic growth might never be as fast as it was between 1990 and 2010, while still offering exponential growth. Do you have a link to that article?

Motivations for asking:

  • Better understanding how economics work
  • Maybe invest in AI companies
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