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These collabs are a great way to raise the profile of prediction markets. However, they are still at risk of displaying unimpressive results if the wheat-to-chaff ratio isn't sufficiently high (prediction markets are vastly superior at yielding solid results with unusually small amounts of talent, but there is still a sufficiently low wheat-to-chaff ratio that causes unimpressive results).
If you are a great forecaster or know people who are, please let them know about this event!
Metaculus’s Chinese AI Chips Tournament is live: Forecast and support research by the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy (IAPS), a think tank that works to reduce risks from the development and deployment of frontier AI systems.
Better understanding China’s ability to produce its own AI chips over the coming years will help shed light on key issues for AI governance, such as:
Learn more about the tournament and start forecasting on these and other questions:
Read a primer on Chinese AI chips by IAPS researcher Erich Grunewald and independent researcher Chris Phenicie.