I'm offering a new bet along similar lines to Yudkowsky's bet with the user RatsWrongAboutUAP in this thread last month. My bet has these similarities (here added explicitly after some confusion in the comments):
I will pay out immediately upon our agreement to the bet, whereas the other party only needs to pay out if and when they lose the bet. I am not requiring the other party to put their funds in escrow.
I am not asking for the other party to reveal private financial information (though doing so may allow me to give better odds than 150:1)
I am willing to make multiple bets with different people.
The odds I'm offering are 150:1.
My bet has these differences:
The time frame will be 3 years from the day the bet is agreed to.
The bet will resolve in my favor if a non-prosaic origin of the existing evidence, or new evidence, is confirmed in this time frame. Edit: the requirement of confirmation of evidence (by the same standards that Yudkowsky agreed to) applies both to existing evidence and any evidence that may emerge during the time interval.
My wager is $1000. If I make multiple bets, this will be the total wager.
EDIT: If you can document liquid assets, I will go down to 100:1. The limit to odds I will accept is at 75:1, but that would only be if the other wager was put in escrow.
I'd like to discuss details like credibility of payback, but first I want to see if there's any interest. My suspicion is that LW users are more afraid to make this bet now than they were in July, but we'll see.
When making bets with extreme odds, I think the precision of your estimate becomes a lot more important.
To use a simple model, if I am 10% off with my precision when I think an event has 50% odds, the actual odds might be somewhere between 40-60%, which is fine. But if I think an event has 99.4% odds (the ratio you propose,) the actual odds are in the range of 89.4-100%. (Putting my actual estimate at 94.7% - not so good!)
In order to even get up to actual odds of 99.4%, even if I believed with complete certainty, my belief would need to have a precision within 1.2% just to get even odds. I have a hard time justifying that sort of precision when predicting novel future events, no matter how unlikely I think they are.
Now, I would be willing to bet with lower odds. For example, I'd bet at 20:1 odds that no such evidence appears within 22.5 years.
(Edit: I am not the user RatsWrongAboutUAP.)
I'm offering a new bet along similar lines to Yudkowsky's bet with the user RatsWrongAboutUAP in this thread last month. My bet has these similarities (here added explicitly after some confusion in the comments):
My bet has these differences:
EDIT: If you can document liquid assets, I will go down to 100:1. The limit to odds I will accept is at 75:1, but that would only be if the other wager was put in escrow.
I'd like to discuss details like credibility of payback, but first I want to see if there's any interest. My suspicion is that LW users are more afraid to make this bet now than they were in July, but we'll see.