GPT-5 with a context window that can fit entire code bases is going to be very scary. Particularly if you think, as I do, that agency is going to start to work soon. I really do think at least "weak recursive self improvement" of the form of automating AI research/training loops is on the table relatively soon.
Here's my prediction market on this subject: https://manifold.markets/NathanHelmBurger/gpt5-plus-scaffolding-and-inference
In Sam Altman's recent interview on Bill Gates' podcast, he said AI tools currently can speed up a programmer by about 3x. It's unclear whether he's referring to publicly available tools like copilot, or internal tools at OpenAI.