ozziegooen's Shortform

One question around the "Long Reflection" or around "What will AGI do?" is something like, "How bottlenecked will be by scientific advances that we'll need to then spend significant resources on?"

I think some assumptions that this model typically holds are:

  1. There will be decision-relevant unknowns.
  2. Many decision-relevant unkowns will be EV-positive to work on.
  3. Of the decision-relevant unknowns that are EV-positive to work on, these will take between 1% to 99% of our time.

(3) seems quite uncertain to me in the steady state. I believe it makes an intuitiv

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ozziegooen's Shortform

by ozziegooen 31st Aug 2019127 comments