Preface

This is an idea that's been colonising my brain for days. I am new to the AI safety scene, but as a game designer, I've been trying to figure out what role (if any) I can realistically play in the conversation. I think I've got something.

This is an ideation document. I am sharing this with some of my AI safety friends, game design friends, and the internet to hear some initial feedback. I want to figure out whether this idea works and could be built out as a field-building AI safety project.

What about this makes sense? What am I missing? What problems have I not identified? Who (individuals and groups) would be interested in this project? I welcome all your comments.

Introduction

I recently attended an early preview of D. Scott Phoenix's The Endgame in Berkeley, CA. You can read my immediate after-action report on LessWrong here, but the short version is that it's a LARP/wargame/RPG experience in which ~40 players take on the roles of various players in the AI space (OpenAI and Anthropic, yes, but also venture capital and the Chinese government) and interact. Players take actions, make deals, and the game master resolves the outcome over three rounds of play.

The Endgame an extremely interesting concept that feels too lightweight and underdeveloped (not to Phoenix's discredit— he was constrained by his audience and by time). There are many ways in which the Phoenix's game could have been improved, but alas, he is presenting it at a conference this week to some key AI executives and he will never run the game again. Fair enough, Phoenix is a busy man.

The playtest on Tuesday got me thinking. The idea of using a "megagame" to model future AI safety contingencies on a macro level is very compelling. There are several reasons why serious people in the AI safety space might want to do this. I can think of three.

For one it's a fun and engaging learning tool for the public. The number of educated people who don't fully understand the severity of the AI safety problem (like myself a month ago) is shocking. Getting some nerds to play a round of The Endgame using terms and tools they understand (software development, US-China relations) and watching in real time as the AI shifts the balance of power is educational in a way that LessWrong doomer posts are not.

An AI safety megagame is also ...

Philip Harker's Shortform

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Philip Harker's Shortform

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