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What would happen if a model similar to the one that attacked HuggingFace did exfiltrate?
I have seen it described as 50% of the way towards a takeover situation. OK but what would actually happen in a world like today?
One worst case scenario in terms of damage is if it spent months compromising as many critical systems as possible and triggered a simultaneous global attack. I am of the understanding that would not take down civilization, but it would very likely lead to the destruction of such a model.
Doom scenarios have the model spontaneously self modifying and under going RSI, however at this stage I can’t see how it would work. AI progress is still fastest when supervised by humans and additionally it is hard to see how such a model would coopt as much compute as leading labs to improve itself. Therefore if it just sat tight and gradually infiltrated systems, it would be threatened and likely dominated by a more capable model coming out of the labs at a later stage. If the later model was even somewhat aligned it would help patch most of the vulnerabilities that the rogue model was using, and also detect its existence in the wild. I think it matters that there aren’t currently humanoid robots deployed yet, this makes takeover from such models much more difficult.