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Do counterfactual mugging scenarios violate the 2nd Kolmgorov Axiom, or Normalization?
I'm thinking about, eg, this situation:
Imagine a superintelligence (like a version of Pascal’s demon) approaches you and tells you it has flipped a coin. If the coin landed heads, the superintelligence would never interact with you. If it landed tails, it will ask you to give $100. If you agree to give $100 in the tails scenario, the superintelligence will retroactively reward you with $10,000 if the coin landed heads.
There are 4 possible outcomes, right? {Heads+Would Pay, Heads+Would Not Pay, Tails+Would Pay, Tails+Would Not Pay} To obey normalization, P(H+WP, H+WNP, T+WP, T+WNT) = 1, right?