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Progress links and tweets, 2023-04-12

by jasoncrawford
12th Apr 2023
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This is a linkpost for https://rootsofprogress.org/links-and-tweets-2023-04-12
Progress StudiesWorld Modeling
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Progress links and tweets, 2023-04-12
1Waldvogel
2jasoncrawford
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[-]Waldvogel2y10

The "New York City's Death Rate" chart is ambiguous to me. Is the red line at 2020 a graphical notation pointing to the current year, or is it a spike in the death rate?

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[-]jasoncrawford2y20

It is a spike in the death rate, from covid.

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Opportunities

  • Nat Friedman wants a researcher/journalist for a short AI/rationalism/x-risk project
  • A new x-risk research lab is recruiting their first round of fellows (via @panickssery)

Links

  • A “solutionist” third-way on AI safety from Leopold (or thread version)
  • Jack Devanney on how “ALARA” makes nuclear energy expensive (via @s8mb). See also my review of Devanney’s book
  • “Instead of a desk, I would like to have a very large lazy susan in my office” (see also my attempts to visualize a soluion)

Queries

  • What’s the best sci-fi about AI to read at this moment in history?
  • What explains the full history of Irish population?
  • Why is the US an outlier in post-2000 suicide rate trends?
  • Do uncertain statements about the future have truth values?
  • Is any sigmoid an isomorphism between two groups over ℝ and (0,1)?

Quotes

  • Evidence for the human capital theory of the Industrial Revolution

AI tweets & threads

  • Good concise clarification of a key difference in thinking on AI x-risk
  • Many AGI doomers & anti-doomers make terrible arguments
  • “Confabulate” instead of “hallucinate” for LLMs?
  • GPT-4 speaker intros
  • Practical advice for coping with the feeling of “imminent doomsday”

Charts

  • “One universal in the history of childhood stands above all others. The history of childhood is a history of death”

  • The Counter-Reformation’s search for heresy was a negative shock to science

  • As terrible as COVID was, we have progressed a lot in the last 200 years

  • The survival curve inflates like a sail, but the far end of it doesn’t move much