"Man this Yudkowsky guy has good arguments, this is quite terrifying! But eh, there is no way ASI could come before at least 50 years. Therefore, I should consider this merely as a nice theoretical problem."
"My ML friends seem rather annoyed by this magical transformer architecture. Looks like a big step forward. Still, this seems like a problem for 20 years later. Surely 20 years will never come to pass."
"AI cannot do this thing [now]. Clearly, this is because of [dubious ad hoc reason]."
"The labs are claiming we will have AGI soon. But we don't even have AGI now!"
"This guy claims Disaster Scenario will unfold in 2 years. But it is clear, if one knows the science, that all the load-bearing steps cannot be achieved in the expected ways in less than 4 years. Thus such fears should be dismissed."
Leisurely get up to speed
I too can be fast, watch me!
"We must pace the frontier."
"If this bill passes next year, it will mandate the actors implement this monitoring measure one year later, lest they pay a large fine one year afterward."
"Let us schedule a meeting next year to address the risks of AI models from 6 months ago."
"I am starting a 10-year research program [...]"
Things are slowing down, now
The acceleration of events is accelerating slower. This must be what slowing down feels like.
"- Yes but this was months ago, nothing of that sort has unfolded sin- oh dear, was that just yesterday??"
" ... because of longtermism ... ... they are concerned that ten years from now ... "
"- Progress in this specific domain is has slowed down this month. - Yeah, we've hit a wall."
"No Millenium Problem solved today, things are finally going back to normal."
Exponential, shmexponential
Exponentials exist only in your dreams, my naive friend.
"This exponential trend may as well take 10, 20, or 30 years to yield the feared outcome."
"Hmm, AI progress in mathematics certainly feels like capabilities significantly improve every few months. Seems that within a year, AI models will be able to do research-level math... No, let's not , this is just your exponentially-crazed brain freaking out."
"Let us take the next two years to see how things unfold, and the next two subsequent years to act."
"This is pure speculation!" [proceeds to speculate on the future, taking the current state of things as permanent]
Do we understand time anymore?
Time barely ever passes
On first approximation, time is constant.
"Man this Yudkowsky guy has good arguments, this is quite terrifying!
But eh, there is no way ASI could come before at least 50 years.
Therefore, I should consider this merely as a nice theoretical problem."
"My ML friends seem rather annoyed by this magical transformer architecture. Looks like a big step forward. Still, this seems like a problem for 20 years later.
Surely 20 years will never come to pass."
"AI cannot do this thing [now]. Clearly, this is because of [dubious ad hoc reason]."
"The labs are claiming we will have AGI soon. But we don't even have AGI now!"
"This guy claims Disaster Scenario will unfold in 2 years. But it is clear, if one knows the science, that all the load-bearing steps cannot be achieved in the expected ways in less than 4 years. Thus such fears should be dismissed."
Leisurely get up to speed
I too can be fast, watch me!
"We must pace the frontier."
"If this bill passes next year, it will mandate the actors implement this monitoring measure one year later, lest they pay a large fine one year afterward."
"Let us schedule a meeting next year to address the risks of AI models from 6 months ago."
"I am starting a 10-year research program [...]"
Things are slowing down, now
The acceleration of events is accelerating slower. This must be what slowing down feels like.
"- Yes but this was months ago, nothing of that sort has unfolded sin- oh dear, was that just yesterday??"
" ... because of longtermism ... ... they are concerned that ten years from now ... "
"- Progress in this specific domain is has slowed down this month.
- Yeah, we've hit a wall."
"No Millenium Problem solved today, things are finally going back to normal."
Exponential, shmexponential
Exponentials exist only in your dreams, my naive friend.
"This exponential trend may as well take 10, 20, or 30 years to yield the feared outcome."
"Hmm, AI progress in mathematics certainly feels like capabilities significantly improve every few months. Seems that within a year, AI models will be able to do research-level math...
No, let's not , this is just your exponentially-crazed brain freaking out."
"Let us take the next two years to see how things unfold, and the next two subsequent years to act."
"This is pure speculation!" [proceeds to speculate on the future, taking the current state of things as permanent]