An old pub that nobody much visits. An owner who is always in a drugged-out stupor. Background music that never changes. A pub that has remained throughout war and revolution, and a single brick-wall that has not changed all that time. You are supposed to be investigating a murder. A gunshot in a distant land, far away from Revachol.

YOU – Run your fingers through your greasy hair, finish your eighth beer.

SHIVERS [Challenging: Success] – People pass in through here occasionally, and tap a pattern out on the wall. Then they aren't in the pub.

1. What is the pattern?
2. Where are they?
3. What's the owner taking? Could I get some?

SHIVERS – Not in this city any longer.

1. What is the pattern?
2. Where are they?
3. What's the owner taking? Could I get some?

SHIVERS – A man in a tall hat and a long coat taps the top brick, the bottom brick, then beside it to the left then the right 10 times.

INLAND EMPIRE – An ominous, foreboding feeling fills you, as you look at the wall.

1. I want to know what happens to them. (Walk over to the wall.)
2. I don't know that I want to continue this life that I currently have. (Walk over to the wall.)
3. I like drinking this drink. (Ignore the thought.)

VISUAL CALCULUS — The wall has a timeless quality to it. No dust has accumulated. No pictures hang. In contrast to everything else in this dirty and dingy bar, it looks like not a day has passed since it was installed.

1. Tap the wall. (Travel.)

A whooshing sound is heard. A room of people dressed as if for some convention. the quality of the clothing does not look very good, probably these people spend as much time in bars as you do. A boy stands in front of you, with a wooden stick in hand, as though he might make to attack you with it. Above him, inside the pub, a sign reads "The Hog’s Head Inn".

1. "What's your name?"
2. "What is a child doing in this pub?"
3. "Is that stick for stirring alcohol? Do you have alcohol?"
4. "Why are you dressed up like you're entering a wizard fancy-dress contest?"
5. "I get the sense that you're even more unbelievably arrogant than I am. Are you aware that I'm a secret rockstar?"

YOU — "What's your name?"

BOY — "Harry. I'm here on official business. What's your name?"

1. "Harry."
2. "DuBois. Lieutenant Detective Harry DuBois."
3. "You're not Harry, I'm Harry."
4. "You look like your parents might be rich, do you think you can give me some money?"
5. "Your outfit suggests you too could benefit from a communist revolution. Join me, comrade?"

YOU — "DuBois. Lieutenant Detective Harry DuBois."

HARRY — "Ah, I see the Ministry is continuing to track my movements, even after all I explicitly instructed them not to. You know at some point your boss is going to lose his job over this."

LOGIC — This isn't the kind of way a young teenager normally talks. With their peculiar clothing, perhaps everyone here is engaged in a LARP of some kind?

AUTHORITY [Easy: Success] – It seems this little upstart doesn't respect you, even after you told him your position. We should teach him some respect.

1. "Where am I?"
2. "Why do you think I am part of the 'ministry'?"
3. "What movements of yours might I need to be tracking?"
4. "Are you and everyone here mucking about like a bunch of children?"
5. "Would you like to learn the meaning of 'lieutenant detective'? (Take out gun.)

YOU — "What movements of yours might I need to be tracking?"

HARRY —  "I'm sure you have your answer already detective, and anything I say won't affect your conclusions. That's one of the disadvantages of having the bottom line of your reasoning already written, before you make new observations or learn new evidence. You aren't really much of a conversation partner any longer."

1. "Where am I?"
2. "Why do you think I am part of the 'ministry'?"
3. "What movements of yours might I need to be tracking?"
4. "Are you and everyone here mucking about like a bunch of children?"
5. "Would you like to learn the meaning of 'lieutenant detective'? (Take out gun.)

YOU — "Where am I?"

HARRY — "Why, you're in The Hog's Head Inn of course. I wonder what magic you used to track me here that didn't let you know where you were apparating to."

1. "Where am I?"
2. "Why do you think I am part of the 'ministry'?"
3. "What movements of yours might I need to be tracking?"
4. "Are you and everyone here mucking about like a bunch of children?"
5. "Would you like to learn the meaning of 'lieutenant detective'? (Take out gun.)

YOU — "Would you like to learn the meaning of 'lieutenant detective'? (Take out gun.)

HARRY — "Color me surprised! I didn't know that the Ministry knew what guns were. I guess you guys are a little better clued in to how the world works than the rest of the population of this little magical enclave. Nonetheless, it wouldn't be much use for defense here, I have an anti-combustion charm in effect to prevent fire attacks that would negate the effect of the gunpowder in the chamber of that weapon."

AUTHORITY – Perhaps we could throw the gun at him?

HALF-LIGHT – If the gun doesn't work, I'm ready to do what it takes to take him out. Hell, I'd remove my own bones to club him over the head.

1. "Where am I?"
2. "Why do you think I am part of the 'ministry'?"
3. "What movements of yours might I need to be tracking?"
4. "Are you and everyone here mucking about like a bunch of children?"
5. "Would you like to learn the meaning of 'lieutenant detective'? (Take out gun.)

YOU — "Why do you think I am part of the 'ministry'?"

HARRY — "You apparate into a pub just beside me. You tell me you're a detective. My best friend has just been killed. What other explanation is there than that you suspect m in her demise, however improbable it is?"

YOU — "I could just be another drunk like the rest of the people here."

HARRY — "...I guess that's possible. And this is a somewhat seedy bar, the base rate of detectives in here wouldn't be that low."

HARRY — "What kind of investigator are you, anyway?"

YOU — "A homicide detective."

HARRY — "Ah. You think I killed Hermione."

YOU — "...did you?"

HARRY — "I don't know that denying it would provide any Bayesian evidence, so I won't."

YOU — "...I should probably take you in for questioning."

HARRY — "Ugh, I am so disappointed in the quality of thinking in the modern day detectives. Do you even have a sense of the base rates for murdering your best friend? Have you done any Fermis on the question?"

YOU — "No? What's a 'fermi'?"

HARRY — "Ugh. Named after Enrico Fermi, leading physicist and architect of the nuclear age, he was famous for doing rapid calculations in his head. During the 1945 Trinity Test of a nuclear explosion, as the shockwave hit, he dropped a small piece of paper to float to the floor, and saw how far it was pushed back. He used this to estimate the strength of this explosion within a factor of two. Do you understand how impressive that is? But of course, from the perspective of reality, it's not impressive at all, we're constantly surrounded by massive amounts of evidence and we barely take any effort to deduce the logical implications of what we see. You should constantly be asking yourself to calculate base rates to the nearest order of magnitude. Come now, do an estimate. Take the number of people who have committed a murder, and compare it to the number of accused?"

1. No, I won't play your foolish game.
2. [LOGIC - Challenging 12] Sure, I'll give it a go.

YOU — Sure, I'll give it a go.

LOGIC [Challening: Failure] — Well, personally I've shot 3 people in my time at the RCM, and that's unusually low for people here, the average is more like ten to twenty. So let's say the average person has shot at ten people, and killed half, then that's a decent number of kills. As for accusations, I rarely actually arrest anyone unless I have overhwelming proof, so I think very few people actually arrested have committed crimes. So I think that our suspects in custody are often actual criminals.

YOU — "I'd say most people have killed someone, and my instincts about who are suspects are approximately never wrong."

HARRY — "I, what... how can most people have killed someone? That would mean that as many people are as alive have also been killed? Do you believe the population halved in the last 50 years via murder alone?"

YOU — "Well... we have lived through a war."

HARRY — "I... well, this at least seems to be stretching the definition of murder, which is an unlawful killing. But still I think Voldemort's people hadn't been involved in that magnitude of killings. I think our disconnect may be deeper than arithmetic."

ENCYCLOPEDIA [Easy: Success] — We really have no idea who Voldemort is.

CONEPTUALIZATION — It sounds like a good name for the leader of a heavy metal band. Maybe we should call ourselves Voldemort?

HARRY — "Anyway, if you don't mind, I am clearly grieving my friend's death, and don't need much interruption via the law if you don't have specific questions."

EMPATHY — He is just saying this to get out of the interaction, but he is also deeply sad beneath his austere outward persona.

INLAND EMPIRE — He has known pain like we have, which is especially sad for a child so young. Yet he still has life behind his eyes. Perhaps we have something to learn from him.

YOU — "Well I'm sorry about your friend kid. I'd be interested in hearing about it. But I still don't know quite where I am, and I'm looking for another drink, I have my own sorrows to drown."

HARRY — "You don't look like you know what you're doing here. I'm going to order you the alcoholic beverage that's charmed to reduce the alcohol in your system. The person I'm here to meet is late, and some part of me feels inclined to hear you out, so I'll drink some butterbeer myself."

To be continued.