I’m response to MR’s post on whether vaccines should be released early. The pinned comments there mostly differ about how likely an early vaccine is to kill one in 4,000 or 10000 people. It’s a tough forecasting problem I know, but there must have be tens of vaccines which have gone through the entire trial, so the percentage which reached stage three then had a death rate about 1 in 4000 bears heavily on the question.